There is only a slim plurality of public support for impeachment and conviction in the Senate right now. I imagine that support will significantly wane when Dems control the Presidency, the House and the Senate. Congress currently has about 15% approval rating according to Gallup, from December, that typically plateaus at 20% after an election in the last decade or so.
I think McConnell knew exactly what he was doing with his shrewd/slimeball move of delaying the trial and vote for the next Congress. This will be a mess nobody wants to touch and Democrats will have sole responsibilty over it. Already 197 Republican House members (93%) voted NOT to impeach, out of 211.
I could see a couple Republican Senate members voting to convict but have a hard time seeing 17!! (i got the math wrong before saying 8) Republicans doing so after he is out of office. For sure Romney and Toomey, and possibly Collins - but very doubtful - for convicting. The rest....no way. They have to face voters again, or they are retiring and most likely realize they and their families will be harassed the rest of their lives by their constituents if they vote to convict.
Trump is still the leader of the Republican Party and I think will remain so, and will probably be able to run in 2024 if he wants to. We'll find out by the end of February.
