Republican Debate - August 6th

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chaos
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Republican Debate - August 6th

#1 Post by chaos » Tue Jul 28, 2015 1:02 pm

I am embarrassed to say that I am looking forward to this. :hehe: :pop:
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/24 ... ews-debate

Two weeks to go: Republicans scramble to make debate stage
By Jonathan Easley - 07/27/15 06:00 AM EDT

Two weeks to go: Republicans scramble to make debate stage
TheHill.com

The race is on for the final spots on stage for the first Republican debate.

With the highly-anticipated showdown less than two weeks away, candidates with low polling numbers are in a high-stakes scramble to qualify for an event that represents their best shot at breaking out.

Fox News is capping the Aug. 6 debate in Cleveland at 10 candidates based on five as-of-yet unspecified national polls released by 5 p.m. on Aug. 4.

Based on five polls used by RealClearPolitics (RCP), eight candidates look like locks to make the stage, while the race for the final two slots is headed for a controversial photo finish. For the candidates currently ranked between ninth place and 14th place, the polling differential is negligible.

“It’s a roll of the dice,” said Monmouth University polling director Patrick Murray. “It’s going to come down to the vagaries of how independent pollsters round off their results — we’re talking tenths of decimal points. It could come down to the five or six people who didn’t pick up their phones for a national survey and the five or six people who did.”

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal are separated by only 1.5 percentage points, according to the RCP national average at the end of last week.

Christie looks to be in the best shape of the bunch, sitting in 9th place with 2.8 percent support. Perry and Kasich are tied for 10th with 1.8 percent support, followed by Fiorina and Santorum at 1.4 percent, and Jindal at 1.2. (By contrast, the lowest of the top eight, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), has 5.4 percent support; the highest, Donald Trump, has 18.2 percent.)

Getting left out of the first debate would be a significant blow to all of their prospects.

“It’s extremely important to be out there,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “If you’re not there, it’s out-of-sight-out-of-mind for voters, and just as importantly right now, for your fundraising efforts.”

For Christie and Santorum, missing the debate would put a spotlight on how far their stars have fallen.

Christie was once flying high in the polls. As early as last year he was considered by many a favorite to win the nomination. And Santorum is the most recent winner of the Iowa caucuses, having emerged in 2012 as the primary challenger to eventual nominee Mitt Romney.

Meanwhile, Kasich risks being frozen out of a debate that will take place in a state where he’s the sitting governor. For Perry, it would mean a missed opportunity for redemption after a mortifying brain-freeze on the debate stage essentially ended his presidential run in 2012.

A spot on the debate stage could legitimize Fiorina’s outsider bid while allowing her to showcase her much-lauded skills as a communicator. And some Republicans believe Jindal’s firebrand conservatism could catch on in Iowa, if only he could get the exposure.

It’s setting up as a dogfight among the campaigns to boost their standing nationally ahead of the debates. It means weighing the return on investment of spending early in an attempt to make the debate, versus mapping out a longer-term strategy.

“We’ve never seen anything like this,” said GOP strategist David Payne. “These candidates who are not polling well are forced to spend early money for national ad buys, while the earned media pathway is complicated by Donald Trump, who is costing every other candidate a chance to get in front of the camera. It’s a challenge.”

The campaign strategies for how the candidates plan to address that challenge are coming into view.

Christie’s campaign is betting big that a national advertising push can shore up his standing. This week, the campaign put $250,000 behind ads that will run on Fox News. The New Jersey governor is also getting an assist from a supporting super-PAC, which last week put more than $1 million into ads that will run in the Northeast.

Perry is hitching his train to Donald Trump. He has emerged as the most vocal opponent of the businessman and reality TV star, who is riding a media frenzy to the top of the polls. Perry could get a lift from Trump’s media coattails.

In addition, the former Texas governor is getting help from the well-funded super-PACs backing his bid. The Opportunity and Freedom PAC has booked nearly $1 million in national ads on conservative TV and radio outlets ahead of the debate.

Austin Barbour, who runs the PAC, noted that Perry tied for seventh in last week’s ABC News-Washington Post poll. “My hope is that we’ll see a couple more polls like that because of this earned media he’s getting off Trump, the speeches he’s giving and what we’ve been doing with paid media.”

Meanwhile, Santorum said at an event in Washington earlier this month that he’d ramp up his media appearances before the debate, and he’s following through. On Wednesday, Santorum did two Fox News hits, appeared on CNN and a Bloomberg online show and finished the day sparring with liberal host Rachel Maddow on MSNBC.

Kasich’s political team says their strategy is to focus on New Hampshire rather than on resources meant to raise his profile nationally. But the Ohio governor’s political team spent significantly on TV ads ahead of his launch and will hope his late entrance into the race is perfectly timed to give him a polling boost heading into August.

Predictably, the complaining over Fox News’s debate standards has picked up in recent days.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who is barely registering in national polls, said on MSNBC last week that the parameters “suck,” while an adviser to Jindal’s campaign wrote an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal arguing that every Republican running for president deserves a prime-time slot.

“When did we start fearing debates? And if we do fear debates, what business do we have trying to win elections,” wrote Curt Anderson. “The plan to limit the participants in these debates is ridiculous in almost every respect.”

The Louisiana governor has temporarily suspended his campaign to deal with a shooting at a movie theater in Lafayette.

Fox News is holding a one-hour forum for the candidates who don’t qualify for the main event earlier in the day.

“That secondary forum will have a lot of qualified, highly knowledgeable and articulate folks,” said Dave Catalfamo, a spokesperson for former New York Gov. George Pataki, who also barely registers in the polls. “It might end up being more substantive because the candidates won’t have to respond to whatever idiotic thing Donald Trump says.”

But most Republicans view it as a second-tier gathering nonetheless.

“If you’re not in that top 10, you’re not going to be taken as seriously,” said Bonjean. “You risk getting left behind."


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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#2 Post by SR » Tue Jul 28, 2015 4:33 pm

Scanned it....didn't see Trump.

These people make me want to cry. Purposeful ignorance and fear mongering as matters of policy and campaign platforms...After seeing this country close up and personal, I am even more afraid, and sad.

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#3 Post by chaos » Tue Jul 28, 2015 4:46 pm

Trump is leading in all polls. :scared:

I hope Christie and Perry round out the top ten.

Just imagine, all of that craziness on one stage. Jerry Springer should be moderating. :lol:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republic ... d=32717700

Who's In

According to an ABC News analysis of five recent major national polls on July 27, eight candidates can likely already book their tickets to the debate. Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson.

Who's Out

Another three candidates are almost certainly going to miss the mark. Carly Fiorina, George Pataki and Lindsey Graham have less than 1 percent support. The six candidates who don’t make the debate will instead participate in a one-hour forum during the afternoon before the debate.

Who's on the Bubble:

But that leaves five candidates who are on the bubble: less than 1 percentage point separates the four candidates between 10th place and 13th place.

Chris Christie and Rick Perry currently hold the last two spots on the debate stage. John Kasich, who just announced his candidacy last week, misses the debate stage by just two-tenths of a percentage point. Rick Santorum and Bobby Jindal are close behind, but still watching from home on Aug. 6. These numbers will move slightly with each new poll that comes out in the next 10 days.

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#4 Post by Pandemonium » Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:43 pm

I can't believe Trump is going to make it to the debate, much less that he's the Republican leader by a wide margin.

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#5 Post by mockbee » Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:59 pm

Nativists coming out of the woodwork and the sensationalist agenda pushed by fox news and republican congress coming home to roost.

What a waste of time and energy that the establishment has sunk so low.

Too bad for America, wonder when Republicans will get a clue.....?


Also to bad for real progressive leftist politics.
With a legitimate challenge from the right, hillary would have to swing right and sanders and warren would get more support/airtime.

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#6 Post by SR » Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:16 am


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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#7 Post by Matz » Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:58 am

I'm thinking about betting a 100 USD on Bush, odds are near 5. I know he's going to win.....he's connected like crazy and Hillary's too old....sucks

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#8 Post by kv » Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:52 pm

No way bush wins...

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#9 Post by mockbee » Thu Jul 30, 2015 1:25 pm

Oh, I thought Matz just meant for Republican nomination but I think he means President....no way.


For Repubs, if they are smart, I'd say it will be Scott Walker, and it would be a fight to the finish with Hillary, if she can't muster up Obama's original supporters. If Repubs are stupid, it will be any other candidate and they will be annihilated in the general election. He's the only one who scares me.

It will be interesting to see how Megyn Kelly deals with the crazies on stage.....I don't think she will lob them easy ones, she may be misguided, but she isn't stupid, I think she has a vested interest in "saving" the party and vaulting herself into preeminent newsperson territory.

One thing we will learn in the debate is whether Trump is a candidate or just promoting Trump. It could all be very boring, and that would be best for Trump the candidate, and not for Trump the brand.

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#10 Post by Matz » Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:35 pm

I saw a poll today on CNN where Bush beats Hillary with one point.

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#11 Post by mockbee » Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:44 pm

Matz wrote:I saw a poll today on CNN where Bush beats Hillary with one point.

Polls don't mean anything until about a month or two before elections. Republican nomination is still almost a year away, and the General Election is more than 15 months away. Crazy how long campaigning lasts and how little content can be covered.

I bet Trump polls better than Hillary at this point. :noclue:

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#12 Post by SR » Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:14 pm

mockbee wrote:
Matz wrote:I saw a poll today on CNN where Bush beats Hillary with one point.

Polls don't mean anything until about a month or two before elections. Republican nomination is still almost a year away, and the General Election is more than 15 months away. Crazy how long campaigning lasts and how little content can be covered.

I bet Trump polls better than Hillary at this point. :noclue:
No, he's beating all fuckwits by a fair to large margin depending upon the poll, but loses to Hill in cross party polling. Bee, you appear to be a bit of a political junkie, yes?

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#13 Post by mockbee » Thu Jul 30, 2015 7:19 pm

SR wrote:
mockbee wrote:
Matz wrote:I saw a poll today on CNN where Bush beats Hillary with one point.

Polls don't mean anything until about a month or two before elections. Republican nomination is still almost a year away, and the General Election is more than 15 months away. Crazy how long campaigning lasts and how little content can be covered.

I bet Trump polls better than Hillary at this point. :noclue:
No, he's beating all fuckwits by a fair to large margin depending upon the poll, but loses to Hill in cross party polling. Bee, you appear to be a bit of a political junkie, yes?
I used to be active/committed for sure. Now not so much. Now just more curious from a sociological vantage point than anything else.

The general population/media are more interesting to me than the politicians of all stripes. :noclue:

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#14 Post by Matz » Fri Jul 31, 2015 5:55 am

mockbee wrote:
Matz wrote:I saw a poll today on CNN where Bush beats Hillary with one point.

Polls don't mean anything until about a month or two before elections. Republican nomination is still almost a year away, and the General Election is more than 15 months away. Crazy how long campaigning lasts and how little content can be covered.

I bet Trump polls better than Hillary at this point. :noclue:
I posted that because you said that Bush doesn't have a chance, this pole clearly indicates that he does. Counting him out seems unwise to me and I don't get what you base it on

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#15 Post by SR » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:16 am

Bee mentioned that the polls vacillate wildly and I agree though I do think they are useful within a short period of time. That said, Jeb most certainly has a chance in this race.....and certainly for the nomination

Bee, I see....your observations are interesting and with teeth/depth.

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#16 Post by mockbee » Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:52 am

Matz wrote:
mockbee wrote:
Matz wrote:I saw a poll today on CNN where Bush beats Hillary with one point.

Polls don't mean anything until about a month or two before elections. Republican nomination is still almost a year away, and the General Election is more than 15 months away. Crazy how long campaigning lasts and how little content can be covered.

I bet Trump polls better than Hillary at this point. :noclue:
I posted that because you said that Bush doesn't have a chance, this pole clearly indicates that he does. Counting him out seems unwise to me and I don't get what you base it on
Well, I could see him winning the primary. And he is scary in that he mimics his brother's "charm" and is truly a neocon, but I think this country is at a different place now than in 2000 & 2004. I think there is a certain segment (the Trump segment) who will never ever vote for him. They would assume go for Hillary or Jeb the same. There will be a strong conservative third party if Jeb wins the nomination and that will throw it to Hillary.

The mainstream populace isn't into the "scary terrorist" "if you aren't for bombing other countries, you aren't serious" territory anymore. At least that is certainly not the talk of the day with the candidates so far. And that was their "Trump" :hehe: card for the last 30+ years. Just transitioned from Reagan - Cold War to Bush - Islamo Terrorists (with Clinton in the middle) There is no platform for the Republicans, outside the boogeyman argument, that the general populace can latch onto. Dems just have to let it ride; as long as there aren't any major, catastrophic economic or security, changes in the next 15 months.

Polls are really only the talk of the day, and don't become critical until it gets close to election time. Herman Cain, the Godfather's Pizza guy, was leading 4 years ago at one point... :confused:

But, true, anything is possible...... :noclue:

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#17 Post by Matz » Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:25 am

well, I hope you're right about Bush, I can't stand that family.

I think I'll put down a 100 bucks on him at odds 4,5 anyway. That way he's for sure not gonna win the election, cause my bets, even the really safe ones, usually fuck up :hehe:

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#18 Post by mockbee » Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:51 am

Matz wrote:well, I hope you're right about Bush, I can't stand that family.

I think I'll put down a 100 bucks on him at odds 4,5 anyway. That way he's for sure not gonna win the election, cause my bets, even the really safe ones, usually fuck up :hehe:

You guys have sanctioned political gambling?? :hs:

Or is this just between friends? :confused:

Or are you just really specific in your facetious humor.....? :tiphat:

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#19 Post by Matz » Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:12 am

mockbee wrote:
Matz wrote:well, I hope you're right about Bush, I can't stand that family.

I think I'll put down a 100 bucks on him at odds 4,5 anyway. That way he's for sure not gonna win the election, cause my bets, even the really safe ones, usually fuck up :hehe:

You guys have sanctioned political gambling?? :hs:

:
yes we do, didn't know that's anything special. Right here:

https://danskespil.dk/oddset/politik/us ... 3%A6sident

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#20 Post by mockbee » Sat Aug 01, 2015 7:39 pm

Matz wrote:
mockbee wrote:
Matz wrote:well, I hope you're right about Bush, I can't stand that family.

I think I'll put down a 100 bucks on him at odds 4,5 anyway. That way he's for sure not gonna win the election, cause my bets, even the really safe ones, usually fuck up :hehe:

You guys have sanctioned political gambling?? :hs:

:
yes we do, didn't know that's anything special. Right here:

https://danskespil.dk/oddset/politik/us ... 3%A6sident

Wow, that's weird. :lol:


Is there an option for none of the above?? I would put my money on that, because I bet the odds are quite high, wouldn't have to put much down. It's strange to actually see the Republican contenders and think that's all they got.

And are you really implying $100 USD??? :drink: Or just DKK?

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#21 Post by Matz » Sun Aug 02, 2015 2:33 am

no option for none of the above.

and yeah, if I'm goin in I'm goin in with a 100 USD, otherwise it's no fun.

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#22 Post by SR » Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:59 am


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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#23 Post by chaos » Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:12 pm

At first I was so disappointed, but he won't be in NH tonight (neither will Huckabee and a few others).

Trump will be at the debate on Aug 6th. That will be must see tv. :lol:

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#24 Post by SR » Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:19 pm

:lol: It may be possible to be embarrassed for him? :essence:

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Re: Republican Debate - August 6th

#25 Post by SR » Mon Aug 03, 2015 12:21 pm

The Donald's cell

917 756-8000

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