Politics

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Pandemonium
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Re: Politics

#101 Post by Pandemonium » Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:40 pm

So here we go....

The sheer stupidity of having your (Trump's) agenda pounded for 2+ years by the opposition with collusion BS and then once more or less cleared to go out and even have the appearance of flirting in a grey area with a foreign government to go after another candidate and doubling down by illegally blocking a whistleblower complaint is insanely stupid. He's made so many enemies inside his own administration that even a super cautious, smarter President would easily be tripped up in something. It's just not good but I think on this he is too naïve to realize how this is vastly different than campaign issues. He gets strategy but not details and in this case details matter and the rules are explicit. At best he looks like a naïve fool and at worst he will be a disgraced, impeached President. I think it's worth investigating Biden (and his son) which is entirely a separate issue and has nothing to do with Trump's possible illegal actions. But whatever Biden facts have no bearing on Trump's liability which looks to be yet another critically unforced error on his part.

IMO, I feel that the Dems would have been much better served to at the very least waiting until Pelosi's Thursday deadline to formally announce impeachment proceedings. They should really be waiting for the transcript of the conversation before going nuclear. If the conversation is nothing, then it's just going to appear that they are moving ahead and working towards impeachment just because that's what they want to do (which has honestly been the case since he was elected). This could really bite the Dems in the ass if the transcripts definitively prove Trumps assertion that he had a "proper" dialog with the Ukrainian President.

If all of this goes down how I think it might, we are in for some real craziness in this country that will dwarf anything we've seen so far.

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mockbee
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Re: Politics

#102 Post by mockbee » Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:19 pm

Pandemonium wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:40 pm

IMO, I feel that the Dems would have been much better served to at the very least waiting until Pelosi's Thursday deadline to formally announce impeachment proceedings. They should really be waiting for the transcript of the conversation before going nuclear. If the conversation is nothing, then it's just going to appear that they are moving ahead and working towards impeachment just because that's what they want to do (which has honestly been the case since he was elected). This could really bite the Dems in the ass if the transcripts definitively prove Trumps assertion that he had a "proper" dialog with the Ukrainian President.
This is where I give Trump way more credit than the media and hysterical liberal class can seem to muster. Trump is extremely manipulative. He MAKES himself look so guilty all over the place that Dems go bezerk and aim for the moon. Trump will punt on the transcript etc until election, make dems go down every ally, and then......it will be nothing. Trump knows this. It is the plan.
Pandemonium wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:40 pm
If all of this goes down how I think it might, we are in for some real craziness in this country that will dwarf anything we've seen so far.
The next election, and the next president after Trumps additional 4 years in office will be really, really weird/crazy/ass-backwards. That is my prediction.....

Think Kanye/Oprah/Tucker Carlson/ etc...............

You have already heard of the next president, you just never in a million years would think that person would ever be president.

:aoa:

lollapaloser
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Re: Politics

#103 Post by lollapaloser » Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:54 pm

The transcript is a distraction. Nobody was asking for it, they want the whistle blower report. So he offers the transcript, which could likely be edited or redacted by the White House.

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mockbee
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Re: Politics

#104 Post by mockbee » Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:50 pm

OH.... IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY APPROVED BY PELOSI?!

the end...

Democrats should just stop running for president. its over.

Unfortunately trump 4 more years..... yipeee.


:balls:

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Re: Politics

#105 Post by guysmiley » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:57 pm

mockbee wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:19 pm
Pandemonium wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:40 pm

IMO, I feel that the Dems would have been much better served to at the very least waiting until Pelosi's Thursday deadline to formally announce impeachment proceedings. They should really be waiting for the transcript of the conversation before going nuclear. If the conversation is nothing, then it's just going to appear that they are moving ahead and working towards impeachment just because that's what they want to do (which has honestly been the case since he was elected). This could really bite the Dems in the ass if the transcripts definitively prove Trumps assertion that he had a "proper" dialog with the Ukrainian President.
This is where I give Trump way more credit than the media and hysterical liberal class can seem to muster. Trump is extremely manipulative. He MAKES himself look so guilty all over the place that Dems go bezerk and aim for the moon. Trump will punt on the transcript etc until election, make dems go down every ally, and then......it will be nothing. Trump knows this. It is the plan.
Pandemonium wrote:
Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:40 pm
If all of this goes down how I think it might, we are in for some real craziness in this country that will dwarf anything we've seen so far.
The next election, and the next president after Trumps additional 4 years in office will be really, really weird/crazy/ass-backwards. That is my prediction.....

Think Kanye/Oprah/Tucker Carlson/ etc...............

You have already heard of the next president, you just never in a million years would think that person would ever be president.

:aoa:
Sadly I thinking you're right.

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Re: Politics

#106 Post by guysmiley » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:58 pm

Wow, great timing....This is going to be a shit show. :jasper:

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Hype
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Re: Politics

#107 Post by Hype » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:17 am

The next election, and the next president after Trumps additional 4 years in office will be really, really weird/crazy/ass-backwards. That is my prediction.....
Of course we now have to admit that this is possible. But I don't think it's likely. Don't forget, not even a plurality of Americans actually voted for Trump, let alone a majority. The vast majority of Americans are still sane, responsible-enough adults who understand that the President should be an intelligent, articulate, thoughtful person. The Democratic Party has its work cut out for it, but there are powerful, educated voices within it that have been working within the constraints of the system to try to make things work out for the best. It is still possible to fix at least some of the damage done by the last four years.

I think your preduction is not as likely as it feels. I give Trump maybe a 35% chance of reelection. What it will come down to is whether the voting patterns change (from 2016) while the overall vote-counts stay roughly the same. Given that the Democrats did rally in 2018, it still seems possible. Don't give up! You don't actually know the future!

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chaos
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Re: Politics

#108 Post by chaos » Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:22 am

Hype wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:17 am
The vast majority of Americans are still sane, responsible-enough adults who understand that the President should be an intelligent, articulate, thoughtful person.

I never pegged you as an optimist. :lol: :pat:

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Hype
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Re: Politics

#109 Post by Hype » Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:19 am

chaos wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 9:22 am
Hype wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:17 am
The vast majority of Americans are still sane, responsible-enough adults who understand that the President should be an intelligent, articulate, thoughtful person.

I never pegged you as an optimist. :lol: :pat:
:lol: I'm not. I just think it's factual that there's some reliability and strength in very large numbers. What broke down in 2016 wasn't the majority of the American people, it was the system that allowed foreign interference and manipulation of the popular vote via targetting the electoral college.

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mockbee
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Re: Politics

#110 Post by mockbee » Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:47 pm

Hype wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:17 am
The next election, and the next president after Trumps additional 4 years in office will be really, really weird/crazy/ass-backwards. That is my prediction.....
Of course we now have to admit that this is possible. But I don't think it's likely. Don't forget, not even a plurality of Americans actually voted for Trump, let alone a majority. The vast majority of Americans are still sane, responsible-enough adults who understand that the President should be an intelligent, articulate, thoughtful person. The Democratic Party has its work cut out for it, but there are powerful, educated voices within it that have been working within the constraints of the system to try to make things work out for the best. It is still possible to fix at least some of the damage done by the last four years.

I think your preduction is not as likely as it feels. I give Trump maybe a 35% chance of reelection. What it will come down to is whether the voting patterns change (from 2016) while the overall vote-counts stay roughly the same. Given that the Democrats did rally in 2018, it still seems possible. Don't give up! You don't actually know the future!
I think Bruni and Douthat had very good editorials that express why impeachment is such a hazard.
Not unwarranted, not unnecessary, not stupid....just a giant hazard, that if handled sloppily and dragged on forever, as expected by democrats, will likely lead to re-election.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/25/opin ... ment-.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/24/opin ... trump.html

Specifically, Douthat:
First, if the Democrats impeach him they will be doing something unpopular instead of something popular. Maybe the polls showing impeachment’s unpopularity will alter as the Ukraine story develops. Maybe public hearings will deliver a series of blows that persuades the large anti-Trump, anti-impeachment constituency that his expedited removal from office is desirable or necessary. But the current shape of public opinion is the boring, basic reason that Trump seems to want to be impeached more than Nancy Pelosi wants to impeach him: The Democratic agenda is more popular than the Republican agenda (whatever that is), the likely Democratic nominees are all more popular than Trump, and so anything that puts the Democrats on the wrong side of public opinion may look better, through Trump’s eyes, than the status quo.

Second, Trump is happy to pit his overt abuses of power against the soft corruption of his foes. This is an aspect of Trumpism that the president’s critics find particularly infuriating — the way he attacks his rivals for being corrupt swamp creatures while being so much more nakedly compromised himself. But whether the subject is the Clinton Foundation’s influence-peddling or now the Biden family’s variation on that theme, Trump has always sold himself as the candidate of a more honest form of graft — presenting his open cynicism as preferable to carefully legal self-dealing, exquisitely laundered self-enrichment, the spirit of “hey, it’s totally normal for the vice president’s son to get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars by the Ukrainians or the Chinese so long as every disclosure form gets filled out and his dad doesn’t talk to him about the business.”


What we need is all the attention to go to AMERICANS in this election - health care, environment, taxes, jobs, jobs, jobs, foreign relations, jobs, infrastructure, jobs, corporate malfeasence, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs.......and what a lousy, lousy deal they are getting with Trump. That's great that there are so many jobs, but why do you have to have three of them to stay afloat?!?!? That should be item number one on the list of Trump failures. Instead the focus for the next year will be on Trump, Trump and Trump and the whole cast of characters of the impeachment panel and and bunch of garbage that 3/4 of Americans don't give a shit about. It's not garbage, but people are tired of this crap. we have been through it for a couple years already with Mueller, now another year?! Trump will say, he didn't order it, the DEms did! The pig will be in heaven.....

Hardly anyone, outside of the died in the wool Dems, will know who the Dem candidate even is......

Trump has a 98% chance of reelection. I am only being realistic here, I gave you 2%.... :wink:

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Re: Politics

#111 Post by Hype » Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:00 pm

I don't think claims like this are warranted:
Trump has a 98% chance of reelection.
That's obvious hyperbole. It's a feeling you have that you base on a certain set of information you've seen. But it's just a feeling. Humans are notoriously bad at getting probabilities and fractions right.

Ask people how much sugar is healthy to eat in a day, or how much sugar they eat, or how many calories, and they'll be off by factors of 50, or more.

Ask people how many Syrians, or Mexicans, or immigrants in general, live in the United States and the same thing happens. They vastly overestimate.

Then ask people how many people are in the same position as they are, and they vastly underestimate.

Don't trust your gut. You don't know what it's been eating.

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mockbee
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Re: Politics

#112 Post by mockbee » Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:10 pm

Hype wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:17 am
Don't forget, not even a plurality of Americans actually voted for Trump, let alone a majority.
Yes, but that was when it was completely unknown what would happen with an unhinged, unprepared, untested, unqualified, ignoramus for a president. Hillary made a lot of mistakes with her campaign, especially with her promotional slogans, campaign scheduling and the like. The one thing she did very well, was paint a picture of a dark, corrupt, and evil future with Trump. It still wasn't enough to prevent a sea of red districts to go for Trump and an ultimate defeat. People were still willing to take that chance. Yes, there was shenanigans, but she needed to win convincingly, and she obviously didn't. If she had Jill Stein's votes, she would have won.
Guess what, that future she painted is now, and the economy is still in tact, in fact even "better"; no new wars, the supreme court is packed with super conservative judges and taxes are swimmingly for the rich and the "don't tread on me" crowd. Trump has a lot of wind in his sails, no fear of dystopia in the future, just more of the same shit. A LOT of people are okay with that. The only way they jump ship is with an unabashed HERO CELEBRITY for the alternative, not just some dude or gal.......Kinda like what we got with Obama.
Hype wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:17 am
The vast majority of Americans are still sane, responsible-enough adults who understand that the President should be an intelligent, articulate, thoughtful person.
Have you met many Americans................ :hs: :lol:
I think you are referring to the educated class, which is a minority. And I am no advocate of the educated class being "smart" when it comes to the needs of "ordinary" Americans. Ordinary Americans are not stupid. Well, some are stupid and some are definitely racists; just like some educated Americans are "stupid" and some are also most definitely racist. Ordinary, working class/poor americans, who will decide the next election are mostly....fed up. They are hurting and struggling, they don't care about policy. THEY DO NOT CARE ABOUT POLICY. They just want somebody to fix it, don't explain it to me, just FIX IT! They need to have faith, a feeling in their heart, that the candidate they vote for will fix it. A lot of people have that feeling about Trump. Why? Because maybe first you need to break it. No politician seems to take any actions to help, so maybe first it needs to be smashed to smithereens...who could do that?

They, the good/non-racist ones, don't really want to smash it, but it is the only choice they see. All current Dem candidates seem like all the others with empty promises. Blah, blah, blah plan this, plan that, heard it all before....... they want someone to believe. Demonstrate you know exactly what the problems are, and say you will fix it in a convincing fashion. Demonstrate that you REALLY understand, they can see straight through the political PR crap. They want to feel something, not learn something. I would argue that all people vote based on a feeling, there is no logic involved.
Hype wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:17 am
I think your preduction is not as likely as it feels. I give Trump maybe a 35% chance of reelection. What it will come down to is whether the voting patterns change (from 2016) while the overall vote-counts stay roughly the same. Given that the Democrats did rally in 2018, it still seems possible. Don't give up! You don't actually know the future!
Democrat rally in 2018 was pretty weak when it came down to it. Lost tons of races for the Senate/Governors they should have won.

I wouldn't say that I have given up, I would say I have acquiesced.....I would suggest the same in order to be prepared for the next stage..... :tiphat:
Last edited by mockbee on Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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mockbee
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Re: Politics

#113 Post by mockbee » Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:15 pm

Hype wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 3:00 pm
I don't think claims like this are warranted:
Trump has a 98% chance of reelection.
That's obvious hyperbole. It's a feeling you have that you base on a certain set of information you've seen. But it's just a feeling. Humans are notoriously bad at getting probabilities and fractions right.

Ask people how much sugar is healthy to eat in a day, or how much sugar they eat, or how many calories, and they'll be off by factors of 50, or more.

Ask people how many Syrians, or Mexicans, or immigrants in general, live in the United States and the same thing happens. They vastly overestimate.

Then ask people how many people are in the same position as they are, and they vastly underestimate.

Don't trust your gut. You don't know what it's been eating.
Totally agree, probability is stupid and notoriously wrong. But what is right here, is making statements, decisions and VOTING is based on a feeling........
I give Trump maybe a 35% chance of reelection.
Same deal here.
:noclue:

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chaos
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Re: Politics

#114 Post by chaos » Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:45 pm

It's not public yet but . . .

The DNI testifies tomorrow morning in an OPEN hearing before the House Intelligence Committee. :pop:

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Re: Politics

#115 Post by Pandemonium » Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:16 am

chaos wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:45 pm
It's not public yet but . . .

The DNI testifies tomorrow morning in an OPEN hearing before the House Intelligence Committee. :pop:
I can't believe they are giving a guy who has engaged a former Clinton/Shiff lawyer as representation and is basically repeating 2nd hand gossip much credence. If you read the complaint, it reads as if anyone who is partisan anti-Trump read the now published phone call transcript like any one of us and is putting their own spin on it.

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Re: Politics

#116 Post by mockbee » Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:47 am

Pandemonium wrote:
Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:16 am
chaos wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:45 pm
It's not public yet but . . .

The DNI testifies tomorrow morning in an OPEN hearing before the House Intelligence Committee. :pop:
I can't believe they are giving a guy who has engaged a former Clinton/Shiff lawyer as representation and is basically repeating 2nd hand gossip much credence. If you read the complaint, it reads as if anyone who is partisan anti-Trump read the now published phone call transcript like any one of us and is putting their own spin on it.
Yes, we will be examining this for a year.


And the public in July will be like.......looks like Trump is running unopposed for president....who is the Democrat running for president???....huh, never heard of that person....... :thumb:

I imagine Trump is in full glee mode today.


Chaos is zen.......... :mediate:

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mockbee
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Re: Politics

#117 Post by mockbee » Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:07 am

Democrats need to get this impeachment business done quickly. Have some hearings, and get a vote done within a month or two. Well.......then it will be the Senate and McConnell's show, through next year.

I change my mind, this isn't just a hazard, this is really dumb........ I do agree that Pelosi didn't really have a choice. Trump was surprised he didn't get snagged with Mueller, so he and Giuliani mustered up this.....

:no:

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chaos
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Re: Politics

#118 Post by chaos » Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:55 am

I wouldn't categorize information in the WB's report as "gossip." This person works in the Intelligence Community and is upfront in the report that s/he is repeating what s/he has been told by other people who work in that community. The WB is essentially waving a SOS flag. I watched the last 1.5 hours of the open hearing. I had thought impeachment proceedings were a mistake prior to the hearing, but no longer. Maguire was put in an untenable position (like so many others in Trump's orbit), and I have a feeling he will not be the acting DNI for much longer.

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chaos
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Re: Politics

#119 Post by chaos » Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:12 pm





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mockbee
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Re: Politics

#120 Post by mockbee » Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:36 pm

chaos wrote:
Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:55 am
I wouldn't categorize information in the WB's report as "gossip." This person works in the Intelligence Community and is upfront in the report that s/he is repeating what s/he has been told by other people who work in that community. The WB is essentially waving a SOS flag. I watched the last 1.5 hours of the open hearing. I had thought impeachment proceedings were a mistake prior to the hearing, but no longer. Maguire was put in an untenable position (like so many others in Trump's orbit), and I have a feeling he will not be the acting DNI for much longer.
I haven't watched any of this and don't keep up with specifics. I rely on rumor and 2nd hand analysis. I'd like to think I am just about, if not slightly more, informed as your average newswatching joe schmo out there.
I'd like to think that puts me in a decent position to understand what is generally playing out with the American public at large. :bored:

With that said, do you see any possibility that Giuliani/Trump engaged in seemingly nefarious activity regarding Ukraine to spur impeachment proceedings? Or is that absolutely impossible in your mind?

It seems to me from the facts so far and from past activity, that is their intent.

They are not flat out stupid.....they are just extremely manipulative with the intent to leverage chaos that revolves around them to their advantage. :noclue:

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