Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

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mockbee
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#141 Post by mockbee » Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:33 pm

chaos wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:31 pm



Image


With regard to the votes (or lack thereof) in the 2012 election between Romney and Obama:

1. While Evangelicals and Mormons tend to align politically, they do not theologically. That is, many Evangelicals do not see Mormons as Christians. As a result a large number of Evangelicals did not vote (or did not vote for either mainstream candidate).

2. Romney alienated a large segment of the population with these comments just before the elections:
In his remarks, Romney used broad strokes to characterize millions of people who he said solidly support President Barack Obama.

"There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what," Romney said in the video. "All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it. That that's an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what.

"And I mean the president starts out with 48, 49 percent … he starts off with a huge number," Romney continued. "These are people who pay no income tax. Forty-seven percent of Americans pay no income tax. So our message of low taxes doesn’t connect. So he’ll be out there talking about tax cuts for the rich. I mean, that’s what they sell every four years. And so my job is is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them that they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."
With regard to the 2016 election between Clinton and Trump:

1.) The Evangelicals who would not vote for Romney, voted for Trump.

2.) Many Obama voters alienated by Romney were later alienated by the democratic party - for many reasons. The water crisis in Flint, MI is one specific example.

3.)
kv wrote:
Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:41 pm
Religion, racism, classism, sexism, traditions, education (myriad of reasons)

Number one is Religion....which trump gets more than most...one side kills babies...get past that if your are super religious...most cant...that's the main problem in my view
...
4.) Bernie supporters were pissed

Alright, some of these points I had not fully considered before. Looking at the arguments I can see why these factors helped Trump but am still not convinced that the Trump win was based on these factors. :noclue:

He was Trump with no track record of knowing what the hell he was doing....... and he got 62,984,828 votes.
Something more is going on here.....
Now he has 3 years of what would be considered major victories in any other presidency, and oh yes, he still is Trump, but I don't see that mattering a lick. :waits:


With regard to the votes (or lack thereof) in the 2012 election between Romney and Obama:

1) Interesting point. I looked up the statistics and found this:
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... -analysis/
Image
Image

Now if you look at the White Evangelicals vs Mormon statistic for Romney '16 vs Trump '20.
You see a +3% swing for Trump for the Evangelicals
(using back of the napkin math with these statistics that is a 1 million vote increase for Trump. Not insignificant.)
However, you had 17% of Mormons who completely bailed. Which may be statistically insignificant because the vast majority were likely in Utah, which wasn't a factor....
Also you had +4% Catholics swing, another 1 million votes for Trump.
(AND uhhhhhh......... Hispanic Catholics have BIG swing for Trump vs Romney!!!!! This just shows how completely tone deaf the Democratic Party is when it comes to minority votes. They are completely and totally clueless........ :no: )

Finally, where the hell were the non-evangelical Protestants for Clinton???????????????????
A misogynist, philander, accused rapist, foul mouthed asshole who despises the poor......
Most all non-crazy religious folk where abortion is not top priority are unperturbed, or in fact slightly encouraged................... ALL of them!
:confused: :banghead:
Outside the Mormons, I'll give them credit. :cool:

Something strange going on here, not just about abortion.....
The independent religious folks obviously were not swayed. :hs:


2) Well, I would argue this didn't impact any votes from traditional Republicans vs Democrats. Pretty much their premise from the start, just he said it. :noclue:


With regard to the 2016 election between Clinton and Trump:


1) Alright, I'll give you the Million vote swing... see above.

2) Totally agree with this. Biden is just one more lumbering behemouth Democrat going off the cliff....... :noclue:

3) I think the important point from kv here, is the classism (the $$$$$$, the crony capitalism) that is not being discussed in an intelligent manner by the media or the vast majority of candidates. Yang, Sanders and Warren being the exception, but they are not connecting with working people....still egghead talk. That does not resonate, obviously. It just reinforces their elite/academic stereotype.
Ask Creep about that if you think that I am being the Elite one here........... :noclue:

4) Uh.....YEAH! Do you think Bernie people voted for Trump the first time? Really? That is HUGE. Like GIGANTIC!!!!!!!!!

If Bernie is forced out, like he is in the process of being right now. This will come back SO hard at Biden. They, Bernie faithful, are looking for revolution. This isn't 2000 anymore with Nader. You will see close to a revolt. Dem Convention will be chaos, think '68, maybe worse.....


That's just what I see happening.
:drink:



:noclue:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#142 Post by mockbee » Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:07 pm

mockbee wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 12:33 pm

Finally, where the hell were the non-evangelical Protestants for Clinton???????????????????
A misogynist, philander, accused rapist, foul mouthed asshole who despises the poor......
Most all non-crazy religious folk where abortion is not top priority are unperturbed, or in fact slightly encouraged................... ALL of them!
:confused: :banghead:
Outside the Mormons, I'll give them credit. :cool:


Something strange going on here, not just about abortion.....
The independent religious folks obviously were not swayed. :hs:
I should add, the Republican Jews somewhat bailed as well. :wave:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#143 Post by kv » Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:15 pm

Yes I honestly think people that wanted Bernie hated Clinton more than trump...and after Hillary and Bernie went at it a while a bunch of his voters did vote trump

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#144 Post by mockbee » Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:47 pm

kv wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 1:15 pm
Yes I honestly think people that wanted Bernie hated Clinton more than trump...and after Hillary and Bernie went at it a while a bunch of his voters did vote trump
YUP!

Clinton backlash will be cute compared to the backlash with Biden and a woman VP.
Bernie already feels cheated. Iowa will be interesting......

I see Seattle/Portland/SF/Oakland/LA/Denver/Boise/Minneapolis/Chicago/Detroit/NO/Miami/Pittsburgh/Philly/NYC/and any college town will have significantly suppressed Dem vote and uptick in Trump votes with Biden.
More traditional New England urban/rural areas I could see being unswayed.

That will be the nail in the coffin and final split of the Dem party.
:noclue:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#145 Post by Pandemonium » Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:43 pm

Democratic party is undergoing similar upheavals with their far left Progressives that the Republican party endured with the Tea Party movement last decade. It weakens them as a party in the short term but eventually after a few election cycles, the fringe either falls in line with the party status quo or gets weeded out.

Unfortunately for Dems, the timing for such divisiveness isn't good right now - they have a serious problem going forward to this election as few old schoolers want a far left socialist like Sanders running for their party nomination. But right now he's virtually tied with mainstream Biden and at some point, that is going to either lead to 2016-esque party shenanigans to lock him out and/or a bitter and divisive contested convention.

You'd think with all the nonsense and baggage Trump carries, anyone could beat him but Dems have been tripping over their own feet since he got elected and after this failed bid to get him out of office, there's a very real chance he'll get a second term.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#146 Post by mockbee » Fri Jan 31, 2020 3:58 pm

Hundreds of people were protesting in DC yesterday to demand accountability during the impeachment trial, when it looked all but certain that no witnesses would be called.
Hundreds!!!!!......in the capitol.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing ... -witnesses

There were maybe 6 or possibly a dozen :noclue: people in Portland protesting when I drove by downtown yesterday, demanding a fair trial.
One of the most liberal/progressive cities in the country.

Generally people don't seem impassioned by the impeachment.
Frustrated. Yes.
But we are talking about the fate of the country right? The fate of the country!

And six people show up in a super liberal city with 2.5 million GMA people?

It's Bernie or Bust (and I mean BUST!) here.......that's all I see. :noclue:

You don't win elections with, well...... I suppose that guy........


:bored:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#147 Post by mockbee » Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:37 am

Pandemonium wrote:
Fri Jan 31, 2020 2:43 pm
Democratic party is undergoing similar upheavals with their far left Progressives that the Republican party endured with the Tea Party movement last decade. It weakens them as a party in the short term but eventually after a few election cycles, the fringe either falls in line with the party status quo or gets weeded out.
(Snip)
I don't understand this part of your statement Panda. The Republican Party (classic) is no more. It is Trump's Party exclusively. Look at what just happened with no evidence with impeachment. NO EVIDENCE! A-okay with "Repubs"????

Same coming for Dems. And very soon.

I think "Tea Party" stage will be pretty quickly cycled through this Summer. And yeah, next election cycle will see the interloper, AOC.
Your favorite! :wink:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#148 Post by Hype » Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:47 am

There is no one in the Democratic party who is remotely "far left". This is how far right US politics has shifted. Bernie Sanders is not a communist, and he's barely a socialist at this point. AOC is not a socialist. Barack Obama was a neoliberal. They're barely left of center, and in many metrics they're effectively right of center compared to the rest of the world.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#149 Post by mockbee » Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:36 am

Hype wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:47 am
There is no one in the Democratic party who is remotely "far left". This is how far right US politics has shifted. Bernie Sanders is not a communist, and he's barely a socialist at this point. AOC is not a socialist. Barack Obama was a neoliberal. They're barely left of center, and in many metrics they're effectively right of center compared to the rest of the world.
I totally agree with you.

Now try telling that to HRC and traditional "Dems"......

They are acting really, really dumb here.....

But she is not dumb.
It's about power and $$$$$, and hoodwinking the rest...
:noclue:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#150 Post by drwintercreeper » Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:07 pm

This is to no one in particular but just a general thought:

Assuming Bernie and his posse of in-your face sycophants clinch the nomination, you guys are going to do about as well as Dukakis did in '88. Our cock smoker president will then coast to re-election. So great job going on being totally and passionately uncompromising; please send me a button once the election is over so I can jizz on it when I am feeling extra angry.

Radicals on both sides of the isle are not helping the country one iota. This whole field of candidates is less than thrilling, to put it mildly... but the psychos that are basically chanting "Bernie or let's BURN THE FUCKER DOWN!!!!" are making me think this might be an election I sit out. Probably not, but only because I can't stand the current corrupt fuck that occupies 1600 Penn. Bernie's hardcore supporters remind me of Trump supporters more each day. Congrats I guess?

The number one priority should be getting the incompetent child out of office. If that means voting for a left shoe or a dirty pair of socks, then count me in. But the hardcore Bernie crowd makes me want to :jasper:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#151 Post by mockbee » Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:57 pm

mockbee wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:54 pm
Hype wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:14 pm
Alas, it will be a disaster and Trump will win with close to Reagan '84 type victory.
If this happens, where "close to Reagan '84" means greater than, say, 55% of the popular vote, and greater than 45 of the states (Reagan had 58.8% of the PV and 49 states, but not DC), then I'll personally buy you a book from your Amazon wish list.

Alright.......your terms, you're on.

You have to admit the over under is well in your favor.
Here's the book:
https://www.amazon.com/Glenn-Murcutt-Bu ... utt&sr=8-6
:wiggle:


Just to make it more interesting, if Trump just flat wins the popular and, of course, electoral....

Then this book:
https://www.amazon.com/Glenn-Murcutt-Si ... 1864701366

And if Dem ticket wins ELECTORAL/presidency I will get you a book of your choice. $60 or under....

Finally, if it mirrors '16 and Trump loses popular and wins electoral its a draw. No prizes.....

Deal?
???????


Things are going to be moving quickly pretty soon here. I might just hold you to the original bet, with no adjusted terms. :bigrin:
:lolol:

Maybe you can get some people to chip in?

I'll eat crow if a Biden wins.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#152 Post by Six7Six7 » Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:44 pm

drwintercreeper wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:07 pm
This is to no one in particular but just a general thought:

Assuming Bernie and his posse of in-your face sycophants clinch the nomination, you guys are going to do about as well as Dukakis did in '88. Our cock smoker president will then coast to re-election. So great job going on being totally and passionately uncompromising; please send me a button once the election is over so I can jizz on it when I am feeling extra angry.

Radicals on both sides of the isle are not helping the country one iota. This whole field of candidates is less than thrilling, to put it mildly... but the psychos that are basically chanting "Bernie or let's BURN THE FUCKER DOWN!!!!" are making me think this might be an election I sit out. Probably not, but only because I can't stand the current corrupt fuck that occupies 1600 Penn. Bernie's hardcore supporters remind me of Trump supporters more each day. Congrats I guess?

The number one priority should be getting the incompetent child out of office. If that means voting for a left shoe or a dirty pair of socks, then count me in. But the hardcore Bernie crowd makes me want to :jasper:
99.999% of those people will fade into the background and you won't hear a peep once the election is over.

And I guarantee they won't be wearing blue hats that say "Make America Socialist Again"

So there's that.

#VoteBlueNoMatterWho

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#153 Post by Hype » Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:51 pm

mockbee wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:57 pm
mockbee wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 9:54 pm
Hype wrote:
Sun Jan 26, 2020 6:14 pm
Alas, it will be a disaster and Trump will win with close to Reagan '84 type victory.
If this happens, where "close to Reagan '84" means greater than, say, 55% of the popular vote, and greater than 45 of the states (Reagan had 58.8% of the PV and 49 states, but not DC), then I'll personally buy you a book from your Amazon wish list.

Alright.......your terms, you're on.

You have to admit the over under is well in your favor.
Here's the book:
https://www.amazon.com/Glenn-Murcutt-Bu ... utt&sr=8-6
:wiggle:


Just to make it more interesting, if Trump just flat wins the popular and, of course, electoral....

Then this book:
https://www.amazon.com/Glenn-Murcutt-Si ... 1864701366

And if Dem ticket wins ELECTORAL/presidency I will get you a book of your choice. $60 or under....

Finally, if it mirrors '16 and Trump loses popular and wins electoral its a draw. No prizes.....

Deal?
???????


Things are going to be moving quickly pretty soon here. I might just hold you to the original bet, with no adjusted terms. :bigrin:
:lolol:

Maybe you can get some people to chip in?

I'll eat crow if a Biden wins.
I'm not optimistic about a Dem win, I just thought your comparison to Reagan was outlandish. I still think that. Some of the prices on those books have come down, it seems. (Paperback for $50? That's totally reasonable...) I just don't have hundreds of dollars at the moment even if I do think I'll win the bet. I'm not conceited enough to think I could ever have 100% certainty on a complex outcome like this. It's more like... 89%. :noclue: I'm game, but I reserve the right to seek out an affordable (but decent) copy. :bday: :rockon:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#154 Post by mockbee » Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:56 pm

Alright, we'll keep it under $60 for the Trump >55% pop and >45 states. I might change the book instead of a used copy because many of those end up being stolen library copies or vandalized. These are high quality large format photographs whose pages end up being worth money in themselves.
:wave:

46 states is still pretty crazy in the current mass media (-fox) and liberal elite mindset climate....he'd have to get OR/WA/HI and most all the NE states.
:noclue:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#155 Post by mockbee » Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:46 am

:confused:

Glad I don't live in Iowa. What an embarrassment.

I wouldnt even want to be in a neighboring state.... :noclue:

:lol:


SR should be getting a little nervous about his $1k...
:lolol:



Democrats/DNC have had an astounding amount of hubris, amplified over the last three years. You could see this coming from miles away. I wonder when they will step back and decide to change....?
:noclue:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#156 Post by mockbee » Tue Feb 04, 2020 9:35 am

This is the entire story here. A harbinger for the entire lead up to election day. Has seemed in plain sight to me since Trump was elected. There is a major reality gap with the elite establishment that is not being recognized.
And I suspect will still not be.....
:scared: :noclue:



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/opin ... e=Homepage
First came the reports — trickling in from caucus leaders, precinct captains and observers — that the app wasn’t working properly. On Monday evening a precinct captain told me by text that their caucus manager was “unable to get the app from the Democratic Party to work” and “had to do the math to figure out delegates ‘long hand.’” FiveThirtyEight’s Amelia Thomson-Deveaux spoke to a frustrated caucus leader who suggested the app itself wouldn’t download. “We could not problem-solve getting the app onto one of our devices,” he told her. NBC News reported some caucus leaders had missed the window to download the app altogether. The Biden campaign issued a letter to Iowa party leaders suggesting the app had failed.

Reckless speculation followed about possible security problems with the technology. Stories from late last month raising concerns about the caucus app’s vulnerabilities recirculated on Twitter. Among the chief fears: The app was to be downloaded directly to the phones of caucus volunteers, making it difficult to ensure the safety of the devices.

After midnight, The Huffington Post reported that Shadow, a tech company funded by the progressive digital media firm Acronym, was responsible for building the app. Shadow, according to its website, bills itself “as building a long-term, side-by-side ‘Shadow’ of tech infrastructure to the Democratic Party and the progressive community at large.” Acronym quickly put out a statement distancing itself from Shadow and noting, “We, like everyone else, are eagerly awaiting more information from the Iowa Democratic Party.”

There’s a great deal we don’t know yet about Shadow and the caucus app. But its apparent failure is a nightmare scenario for Democrats and the political left. Quite simply, the party desperately needs to win the internet in their race to beat President Trump. That means building infrastructure to connect and assuage voters, controlling the narrative and overcoming the substantial time advantage held by the president. In its first critical test, the party systematically undermined each of those goals.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#157 Post by mockbee » Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:09 pm

drwintercreeper wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:07 pm
This is to no one in particular but just a general thought:

Assuming Bernie and his posse of in-your face sycophants clinch the nomination, you guys are going to do about as well as Dukakis did in '88. Our cock smoker president will then coast to re-election. So great job going on being totally and passionately uncompromising; please send me a button once the election is over so I can jizz on it when I am feeling extra angry.

Radicals on both sides of the isle are not helping the country one iota. This whole field of candidates is less than thrilling, to put it mildly... but the psychos that are basically chanting "Bernie or let's BURN THE FUCKER DOWN!!!!" are making me think this might be an election I sit out. Probably not, but only because I can't stand the current corrupt fuck that occupies 1600 Penn. Bernie's hardcore supporters remind me of Trump supporters more each day. Congrats I guess?

The number one priority should be getting the incompetent child out of office. If that means voting for a left shoe or a dirty pair of socks, then count me in. But the hardcore Bernie crowd makes me want to :jasper:

Don't worry. Biden will be your nominee.
There is no way Sanders will be allowed to win by DNC.
And he will struggle in the big and the southern states like against Clinton.

But, I would be thinking more in line of Mondale loss rather than Dukakis with the Biden ticket.

He did terrrrrrrible in Iowa. :hehe:

Nobody wants him, and many progressives actively dislike him. But he'll be the guy.
:wave:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#158 Post by drwintercreeper » Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:06 pm

Biden seems to be toast now. I love Pete but he will lose. At this point, Bloomberg is seeming more possible... but super tuesday will show if his strategy of waiting is sound.

I will do my part and vote for whoever the dem nominee is... even if it means Bernie. Lord knows my vote won’t count in kansas, but i will still do my part to vote against president orange cumstain.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#159 Post by chaos » Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:27 pm

:drink:
https://nypost.com/2020/02/15/bloomberg ... _app&amp=1

Bloomberg reportedly considering Hillary Clinton as his running mate
By Mary Kay Linge

February 15, 2020 | 11:25am

He’s with her?

Mike Bloomberg could team up with Hillary Clinton to try to take down President Trump in November — by making her his running mate.

Bloomberg’s internal polling has found the combo “would be a formidable force,” campaign sources told the Drudge Report Saturday.

Clinton, who lost her 2016 White House bid to Trump despite winning the popular vote, said last week that she would “probably” not accept an offer to run as another Democrat’s veep.

“I never say never because I believe in serving my country,” she told talk show host Ellen DeGeneres. “But it’s never going to happen.”

But the former New York mayor may press the question.

Clinton and Bloomberg were spotted together in December at a dinner with daughter Chelsea, Page Six reported – supposedly to celebrate the birthday of socialite Annette de la Renta.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#160 Post by mockbee » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:08 pm

:drink: indeed.


If US wealth (not income) were a pie, and there were 100 slices and, symbolically, there were 100 people in the US - one person (or 1%) would own 39 of those slices. While 50 people would have claim to no slices - and actually would OWE part of a slice.

The rest of the 61 slices would be unevenly divided amongst the other 49 people.

No other country can claim such a disapproportion of wealth near this size.

It really is an amazing con game the monied class, that absolutely includes to a huge degree HRC and Bloomberg, have done to hoodwink the American public that that bottom 50% just didn't work hard enough.
:no:

I absolutely think the Elite class need to be preserved, to a large sense in this country, in no small part for academic achievement, innovation investment, entrepreneurial excellence and to preserve liberty. But to continue down our current path seems to me, the guarantee that all of that will be thrown in the garbage in the groundswell revolt.
:noclue:

Maybe Bernie wakes us up. But still I dont see how the power brokers allow that....and I don't see that he has the following or aptitude to shift this gigantic freighter in a more sustainable direction.
:noclue:

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