Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

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Hype
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#101 Post by Hype » Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:13 pm

I admit, it's possible that the Democrats have royally screwed up this coming election. :noclue:

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mockbee
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#102 Post by mockbee » Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:00 pm

Hype wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:13 pm
I admit, it's possible that the Democrats have royally screwed up this coming election. :noclue:
possible....? :lol:


When Biden gets the ticket (and the lead up) you are going to see some nutzoid stuff going on from the progressive left.

And this:
Image



The more I think, I could see Oregon and Washington going Trump. There are very conservative factions here...
Dems will lose the House and probably lose some Senate seats.

It's going to be really odd, because effectively there will be no Democratic Party left, and Repubs already died.......

:noclue:

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SR
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#103 Post by SR » Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:03 pm

If I am not mistaken, Clinton carried in the mid 50% of popular vote in '16 and trump was 40%.

I am not concerned at all about this wager. Wasn't it 30 states to 20 in '16 as well? Any of the three possible D nominees will positively carry:
-Cali
-NY
-Massachusetts
-Vermont
-Delaware
-Connecticut
Very likely are:
-Minnesota
-Illinois
-Washington
-Maryland
-Maine
And very possible are:
-Virginia
- Oregon
-Nevada
-New Mexico
-Colorado

I am quite aware of your thoughts on where all this is going, and with your level of certainty, I would like to see what materials you rely on to form your ideas.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#104 Post by creep » Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:45 pm

When Hillary enters the race does that make things better or worse for the Democrats?

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SR
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#105 Post by SR » Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:01 pm

If only. Clinton's entrance would be an interesting wrinkle probably resulting in much the same damage as 16....the defection votes alluded to in this thread. Without her, there will be those defect votes, but she was a bit more polarizing than the present dems. No one polarizes like trump though. He's the best polarizer. Ask anyone

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mockbee
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#106 Post by mockbee » Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:22 pm

SR wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:03 pm
If I am not mistaken, Clinton carried in the mid 50% of popular vote in '16 and trump was 40%.
:no:

Any reference to 2016 is completely irrelevant. I keep trying to express this. Of course you are entitled to your opinion, but just any response would be like looking at this and asking hmmm....maybe just a new battery and she'll run good as new! :lolol:


Image

The media, the candidates and the Dem congress still don't get this....... :hs:

Politics as we knew it is completely and totally over.
Voting for Trump in '16 was a gigantic risk for people.
He won, and now the economy is "humming" and we got out of Syria, no escalation of wars, and the list goes on...
Why the hell would any one of those people go to someone else?

Now he has plenty of weaknesses but the Dems and Media aren't touching them. :noclue:

To be clear Trump is a despicable person but people who vote for him (or typically don't vote) don't care about that, and they never will.

Now he is also a crony capitalist and puts the working people who voted for him in debilitating stress and at tremendous risk, but they aren't being told specifically why (they know, just don't see a candidate who mirrors their concerns) because to do so would delegitimize big media and long time liberal elites. Sanders is fine, and could possibly "talk" to the general populace if he went strong socialist and made it to the General. But he won't, because liberal elites see him as too much of a threat, and conservative/liberal elites would band together to take him down. It's in their financial interest to do so. Personal financial interests will ALWAYS prevail. Sure, the privileged liberal elite can always talk a game, and some like Soros/Buffett/Gates/etc put their money where their mouth is, but that won't be near the majority and is a privilege of the super elite. Now, bring in the government (Sanders) saying give me most of your money to the elite at large and I think we would have a different story. No way.
SR wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:03 pm

I am quite aware of your thoughts on where all this is going, and with your level of certainty, I would like to see what materials you rely on to form your ideas.
Mostly I rely on my head. Any mainstream media is complete garbage, beyond just general goings on. :noclue:

Oh, and this.....it's pretty deep, maybe you can help me peruse and post takeaways when you can....?

www.la_poubelle.com
:noclue:


:tiphat:
:thumb:

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mockbee
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#107 Post by mockbee » Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:34 pm

creep wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:45 pm
When Hillary enters the race does that make things better or worse for the Democrats?
Why the hell would people who voted for Trump last time vote for Cilnton?
And there would be exactly zero people coming in from the woodwork to vote for Clinton.


I think she is angling to be the inside person with Biden.
She will support him.
Last edited by mockbee on Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.

creep
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#108 Post by creep » Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:41 pm

mockbee wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:22 pm
Voting for Trump in '16 was a gigantic risk for people.
He won, and now the economy is "humming" and we got out of Syria, no escalation of wars, and the list goes on...
Why the hell would any one of those people go to someone else?
:nod:
yup

I work with about 20 other people and all but 1 are voting for Trump. I work in a small town and they are all mostly gun owning country folk...just like most of middle America.

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mockbee
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#109 Post by mockbee » Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:48 pm

creep wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:41 pm
mockbee wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:22 pm
Voting for Trump in '16 was a gigantic risk for people.
He won, and now the economy is "humming" and we got out of Syria, no escalation of wars, and the list goes on...
Why the hell would any one of those people go to someone else?
:nod:
yup

I work with about 20 other people and all but 1 are voting for Trump. I work in a small town and they are all mostly gun owning country folk...just like most of middle America.
Yeah, and there's a bunch of scared people that sat out, or voted for Clinton, and I see them going to Trump as well in '20. :noclue:

Now, if SR says polls this...polls that. Have we learned nothing! :lol:

It's not popular to like Trump.
You are seen as an outcast in the elite circles (where people are trying to get to) and when polling comes around, are the people really telling the truth?
They didn't leading up to '16 and I don't see why it would be any different today.
Look at what happens to people when they say they support trump.
They are "despicable" people...........
:noclue:
Last edited by mockbee on Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#110 Post by mockbee » Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:56 pm

mockbee wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:34 pm
creep wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:45 pm
When Hillary enters the race does that make things better or worse for the Democrats?
Why the hell would people who voted for Trump last time vote for Cilnton?
And there would be exactly zero people coming in from the woodwork to vote for Clinton.


I think she is angling to be the inside person with Biden.
She will support him.
If she really is dumb enough to "enter" the race (I don't think she is, she's pretty smart).....just wow.
This is going to be even more f'd up than I thought........ :lol:
And I think it's going to be pretty bad......... :lolol:

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SR
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#111 Post by SR » Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:43 pm

There is no chance Clinton will enter the race. My post, referencing that was mainly sarcastic and in response to another post. Unlike you, I think there is much to learn and infer from '16.

The fact that you gleefully ignore any empirical data, statistics, polling, historical context and further the idea that '20 exists within a bubble makes it really hard to discuss this. Yours is a declaration without a defense, unless we rely on your thoughts and observations of your town, your friends, and the like. Liberals are out of touch and don't understand the minority of voters who support trump. True, liberals don't understand trump supporters (except the very small number of fiscal elites that benefit from his corporate welfare) just as trump supporters don't understand liberals, but everyone is pissed.

I do agree with you on one point....the country will never be the same. We have been breached in almost every domestic and geopolitical arena, Our foreign policy is riddled with ignorance to the cyber wars that we are woefully behind in. Our stance on the environment and AI is laughable and we are decades behind in terms of attempting to enjoy any economic benefits to combat these issues. I won't even touch ethics here :lol:

Anyways, we aren't far from finding out exactly how all this will play out. I am not convinced that there won't be a significant revolt...whether it be the farmers that have been subsidized to the tune of billions or the younger voter who has historically not turned out. :noclue: But, if you are right and trump wins in a landslide, I won't be surprised. Rome is already burning.

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Pandemonium
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#112 Post by Pandemonium » Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:21 pm

I’m not sure Biden will get the nomination at this point. IMO, it’s anyone’s nomination to win or lose right now between the top 3. Sanders is currently enjoying a healthy surge in his numbers leading to Iowa. It’s possible the Democratic convention will be contested which will not be good for Dems going into November.

Every time I’m about to bloviate my opinion here, I go back and read one of my first posts in the original Trump for President thread saying he won’t even make it close to being the top Repub contender and remember I really don’t know what the hell I’m talking about.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#113 Post by mockbee » Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:52 pm

SR wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:43 pm
There is no chance Clinton will enter the race. My post, referencing that was mainly sarcastic and in response to another post. Unlike you, I think there is much to learn and infer from '16.

The fact that you gleefully ignore any empirical data, statistics, polling, historical context and further the idea that '20 exists within a bubble makes it really hard to discuss this. Yours is a declaration without a defense,
My defense is look at '16. Not the data. But intuitively look at it. And look at what has happened over, and over, and over again during the course of the last 3 years. Trump spells it out each time.....

Here, if you want resources, read this. This hammers home what Trump does and why it works each time....It's really important that people respect/understand this. I am amazed that after three years, mainstream media still completely ignores this......
:balls:
FAR TOO MANY PEOPLE BELIEVE PRESIDENT TRUMP’S NEXT OUTBURST WILL BE THE ONE THAT FINALLY BRINGS HIM DOWN. IN FACT, THE EXACT OPPOSITE IS TRUE: HIS OUTRAGEOUS ANTICS AND WILD LIES ARE HIS BIGGEST STRENGTH.

This may drive you a little crazy. Amanda Carpenter says: That’s the point. Over the years, Trump has developed a winning formula that forces anyone who stands in his way into a discombobulated state of weakness and confusion.

In Gaslighting America, Carpenter breaks down Trump’s playbook, showing why it’s practically foolproof, manipulating all the major players—the Republicans, the Democrats, the media, and the victims of his method—perfectly. She traces how this tactic started with Nixon, gained traction with Bill Clinton, and exploded under Trump.

Carpenter explains that when Trump seizes control over the political narrative, he always follows the same steps. First, he stakes out political territory no one else would dare occupy, taking over the news cycle. Next, he denies responsibility while simultaneously advancing the story. His third step may be his most maddening: he creates suspense for his story by saying more information is coming soon. His fourth step is carefully selecting a detractor to attack, often finding the weakest opponent or someone who will be severely damaged by taking a roll in the mud with him. If he’s successful, and sometimes even when he’s not, he’ll proceed to the fifth step: declaring victory under any circumstance.


SR wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:43 pm
unless we rely on your thoughts and observations of your town, your friends, and the like.

See, this is really important as well.....Media knows crap about small towns and rural people. There is no CNN in Bumbleshoot, MO. They know nothing about them, and them is A LOT of people. You can't just go there for a week and understand what is going on, so regular people's stories and experiences with rural life is really important. And I'd say there are very similar issues across the country. Bakersfield is no different than Tulsa, OK.. As far as what motivates people to vote for Trump
:noclue:
SR wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:43 pm
Our foreign policy is riddled with ignorance to the cyber wars that we are woefully behind in. Our stance on the environment and AI is laughable and we are decades behind in terms of attempting to enjoy any economic benefits to combat these issues. I won't even touch ethics here :lol:

Speak more on foreign policy. Actually that is the one and only arena that Trump seems to be hitting it out of the park consistently. WE ARE OUT OF SYRIA! No US casualties and no dumpster fire (for time being, but hey! Take it!) Soleimani was a big deal. Obama and W wanted him out, just worried about backlash. What's happened...?
SR wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:43 pm
Anyways, we aren't far from finding out exactly how all this will play out. I am not convinced that there won't be a significant revolt...whether it be the farmers that have been subsidized to the tune of billions or the younger voter who has historically not turned out. :noclue:
I think the progressive left will sit out '20. They are for revolt, yes, and Biden is no revolt. Sanders cannot win Dem ticket for reasons I state above. Farmers are just going to have to roll with it......They have for the last 30-40 years, what's their option?
SR wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 8:43 pm
But, if you are right and trump wins in a landslide, I won't be surprised. Rome is already burning.
Really? That's new!
:tiphat:

:cool:

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mockbee
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#114 Post by mockbee » Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:26 am

Pandemonium wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:21 pm
I’m not sure Biden will get the nomination at this point. IMO, it’s anyone’s nomination to win or lose right now between the top 3. Sanders is currently enjoying a healthy surge in his numbers leading to Iowa. It’s possible the Democratic convention will be contested which will not be good for Dems going into November.
Biden not getting the nomination is crazy talk. Isn't it.....?
Then WHO?!
Really.....who?
:noclue:

Pete has a major problem with minority voters. He can't even retain non-white people on staff, they walk out.
There is no way he gets the votes and can't even seem keep up in Iowa polling.
Iowa!

It can't be Sanders.
That will never happen.
Dem elites will not let that happen.
Hillary is going to go really hard at that. Sanders has no defense from the sexist front.
Also, all you have to say is two words and Sanders is dead............ "sounds risky"
No more health insurance that all the satiated people with power are used to??? No way.
The economy is humming....
Wall Street will be cool with-------take your pick of his policies.....?

But.......there is one way that I could see Sanders taking the nomination.
He would have to go rogue, like really rogue, and very strategically with a certain poison pill only available to him.
It will happen anyways in the general, but he would have to be ruthless and employ it early, like now.
I could possibly see it with his streak of persnicketiness and his followers.
:nod:
Pandemonium wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:21 pm
Every time I’m about to bloviate my opinion here, I go back and read one of my first posts in the original Trump for President thread saying he won’t even make it close to being the top Repub contender and remember I really don’t know what the hell I’m talking about.
We all got it wrong Panda. Every one of us.
I saw it pretty early on that we weren't working with a dummy, it took a bit.
But at first I thought he was a complete joke.

You should say what you think here Panda.
It might help clarify things for you.....
:noclue:

Over the last couple years it's actually become really clear to me. :idea:
And I feel alright.
Not saying it will be alright, just I feel alright because it seems so clear where things are going.
There is so much weight lifted off your shoulders when you see the method to the madness.
:tiphat:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#115 Post by SR » Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:21 am

:hide:

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mockbee
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#116 Post by mockbee » Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:47 am

SR wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 5:21 am
:hide:
"Is that he's gone nuts............ I'm outta here."

Or

"Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh........crap."


:noclue:



:wave:

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#117 Post by mockbee » Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:02 am

SR wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 2:03 pm

I am quite aware of your thoughts on where all this is going, and with your level of certainty, I would like to see what materials you rely on to form your ideas.
So I think nytimes has mostly transitioned to a tabloid format, just look at the front page most days......
:no:

But they do have some good editorials by the conservative columnists still. Im thinking David Brooks, Douthat and sometimes Brett Stephens, even Maureen Dowd and Edsall. They often identify the problem really well. Just their tack when providimg input on "solutions" often seem WAY off to me. They are always nudging back to happy center where elites still control the show. I am quite confident that will never happen again, unless there is a coup, which would be strange from the Center, eh?..........cue Taibbi.
:thumb:

Liberal columnists in nytimes are in outer space........ :scared: :wavesad:
Specifically Goldberg, Blow and Krugman. I can't read them anymore...
The next 4-5 years are going to be pretty rough for them....
:noclue:

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Hype
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#118 Post by Hype » Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:05 pm

So I think nytimes has mostly transitioned to a tabloid format, just look at the front page most days......
:no:

But they do have some good editorials by the conservative columnists still. Im thinking David Brooks, Douthat and sometimes Brett Stephens, even Maureen Dowd and Edsall.
:confused: All of those people you mentioned are insipid, and some of them are mind-numbingly dense.

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mockbee
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#119 Post by mockbee » Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:50 pm

Hype wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:05 pm
So I think nytimes has mostly transitioned to a tabloid format, just look at the front page most days......
:no:

But they do have some good editorials by the conservative columnists still. Im thinking David Brooks, Douthat and sometimes Brett Stephens, even Maureen Dowd and Edsall.
:confused: All of those people you mentioned are insipid, and some of them are mind-numbingly dense.
I don't disagree with you. A lot of the conservatives pieces are total bunk, and fly in the face of reality. Specifically David Brooks ( ie The Bernie Sanders Fallacy
No, Virginia, there is no class war.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/opin ... llacy.html :jasper: ) and Stephens.

But I think there is an understanding with some of their articles that the support for Trump is more complex than, theyre all just confused or a bunch of racists. Which is what I see everywhere else. :noclue:

Nothing will move forward with that premise, and it is a vapid and very popular premise among the left. :conf:

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Artemis
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#120 Post by Artemis » Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:05 pm

I like Amy Klobuchar. Do you guys think she has a chance of getting the Dem nomination?

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