Predictions....

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mockbee
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Re: Predictions....

#21 Post by mockbee » Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:22 am

I still think it will be Reagan like. It will depend on the Third party component though. Bloomberg or Bernie going rogue.

With Biden and Bernie pissed/cheated and not running third party and Bloomberg out, not running third.
That is going to be really really rough..... :wave:

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Hype
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Re: Predictions....

#22 Post by Hype » Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:35 am

mockbee wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:22 am
I still think it will be Reagan like. It will depend on the Third party component though. Bloomberg or Bernie going rogue.

With Biden and Bernie pissed/cheated and not running third party and Bloomberg out, not running third.
That is going to be really really rough..... :wave:
Can we resurrect Ross Perot?

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mockbee
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Re: Predictions....

#23 Post by mockbee » Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:36 am

Hype wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:14 am
If the choice is Trump vs. Bloomberg, probably Bloomberg would be better for the future of the nation, since he doesn't seem to have the same unfettered, stupid, authoritarian streak Trump does. Plus it would avoid emboldening the worst elements of the Republican party into thinking the destructive party could continue.
I don't know about that. I think Trump is awful for domestic stuff. But his foreign affairs is actually pretty interesting, maybe it's just luck. :hs:
Really like the no wars thing... :noclue:
Domestically, seems to be just a stress test on the constitutional system. And the system seems to be holding for the most part. Maybe it's good it's in the open. This shit has always happened. Just behind closed doors before.

:noclue:
I think Bernie is not likely to win against Trump either, though. And I still think, as I always have, that any woman would have a hard time against Trump because the American electorate still contains a large and unchecked misogynist element (in exactly the same way it contains a height bias; even though Clinton received more votes than Trump, these were regionally locked in precisely the way you'd expect given widespread misogyny outside of coastal cities).
I think a woman can win. Not Warren or Klobuchar though. Clinton could have won if she campaigned smarter in the last couple months. Agreed though on the pervasive misogyny..

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Hype
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Re: Predictions....

#24 Post by Hype » Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:43 am

the system seems to be holding for the most part.
Barely. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/14/us/p ... -barr.html

If Ginsberg dies in the near future (which is totally possible), the Supreme Court is fucked, and it's unclear how bad this will get for challenges to previous court decisions like Roe v. Wade, etc.

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mockbee
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Re: Predictions....

#25 Post by mockbee » Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:46 am

Hype wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 6:43 am
the system seems to be holding for the most part.
Barely. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/14/us/p ... -barr.html

If Ginsberg dies in the near future (which is totally possible), the Supreme Court is fucked, and it's unclear how bad this will get for challenges to previous court decisions like Roe v. Wade, etc.
For sure a major concern. The corporate/anti-choice/environmentally destructive courts is the biggest concern.....

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mockbee
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Re: Predictions....

#26 Post by mockbee » Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:24 am

Pence is being set up as the fall guy by Trump for coronavirus.

We will see a new VP for 2020 election.
:wave:

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mockbee
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Re: Predictions....

#27 Post by mockbee » Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:44 am

mockbee wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:24 am
Pence is being set up as the fall guy by Trump for coronavirus.

We will see a new VP for 2020 election.
:wave:

Trump is such an asshole..... :essence: :no:

Pence can't quit, if he could I bet he would..... : :flip: :no:


Last month I honestly was going to have a really hard time voting for Biden. He is the epitome of what is wrong with the Democrats and they have runvthe same guy for the last 50 years. Just got really really lucky with Clinton and Obama. They haven't learned their lesson yet???!!!!

But I'll vote for Biden. Being unresponsive to disaster is unacceptable.......that's really one of the only things that is nonnegotiable as a leader. :no:

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mockbee
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Re: Predictions....

#28 Post by mockbee » Fri May 29, 2020 6:26 am

Government takes over Twitter.
:noclue:

Trump has said he is a fan of eminent domain

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Artemis
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Re: Predictions....

#29 Post by Artemis » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:33 am

The Economist has a new forecasting model they've put out and will update daily.

Today, they give Biden a 82% chance of winning.


https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- ... /president


This link explains how their forecasting model works.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- ... this-works

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mockbee
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Re: Predictions....

#30 Post by mockbee » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:48 am

It will be wrong. :tiphat:


I know that sounds weird right now.
If you see how Trump has operated the last 5 years he is in a very desirable position. Focusing on race is very beneficial to him. Standing on the side of jobs is very beneficial to him. He has not touched Biden yet. Biden is a disaster waiting to happen.
:noclue:

I am in no way a Trump fan. But I do think it would be beneficial to come to terms with how he keeps slithering away with everything. He is extremely strategic with the setup.

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chaos
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Re: Predictions....

#31 Post by chaos » Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:35 am

Artemis wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:33 am
The Economist has a new forecasting model they've put out and will update daily.

Today, they give Biden a 82% chance of winning.


https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- ... /president


This link explains how their forecasting model works.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020- ... this-works
Thanks for posting this.
I like how they have explained their methodology for lay people. It's interesting, at this point, they predict Florida will go blue.

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mockbee
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Re: Predictions....

#32 Post by mockbee » Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:43 am

Kamala is being groomed for VP.
Would be surprised if Biden does not choose her.
Best choice.....maybe.
It depends on how well she responds to the psyop training she is currently undergoing.
She is NOT good (terrible!) when listening to her sister.....but has the chops/correct background if she evolves.

If Cialdini gets involved in the training....and she masters it..... Trump will have a serious run for his money.
Biden will be the stooge and she will be the vote. They (smart (?) powers behind the scenes) may be setting him up as the fall guy for Kamala.
They know there is no hope for him.
Or.....more likely, they (DNC set) have no clue what they are doing, and will do what they always do......

If that is the case (incompetents behind the scenes), I still see Trump pretty easy with victory.
Reagan like would be tough with the COVID shit.
But might still swing that way if it does finally settle and Biden goes full incompetence and kamala (or alternate) falls flat.


:hehe:
:scared:
:noclue:


:wave:
:wavesad:

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mockbee
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Re: Predictions....

#33 Post by mockbee » Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:13 pm

Just to remain clear, I still think that Trump is an asshole and a menace, and needs to be replaced......
:nod:



:balls:

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kv
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Re: Predictions....

#34 Post by kv » Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:02 pm

Take your tin foil hat off...it's gonna be ok dude :thumb:

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mockbee
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Re: Predictions....

#35 Post by mockbee » Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:14 pm

Same to you 2016 kv! :wink:

See ya nov 4 or 5 or 10 or whenever they decide to decide this thing.
:pat:




:lol:

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chaos
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Re: Predictions....

#36 Post by chaos » Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:02 pm

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ls/613651/

White Voters Are Abandoning Trump
And they’re doing so for a surprising reason.
JUNE 30, 2020

David A. Graham
Staff writer at The Atlantic

For most of the past three years, the only thing more futile than looking for Donald Trump to pivot was expecting the American people to do so. No matter how successful the president was, or, more often, how chaotic and disorderly his administration was, nothing seemed to be able to shake up people’s views of Trump.

Popular approval of Trump hovered in the same narrow range, roughly from 39 to 45 percent, through Charlottesville and tax reform, supposed border caravans and mass shootings, Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report and impeachment.

As the election approaches, the president’s approval rating becomes less important than how he’s polling against his challenger. And in the past few weeks, something has shifted. After months of Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, leading by single digits, a series of polls https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6247.html has recently shown him building a sizable lead. Surveys from The New York Times/Siena College and Harvard/Harris have Trump trailing by 14 and 12 points, respectively. A series of swing-state polls shows Biden tied or leading in states that Trump won comfortably in 2016.

As pollsters are at pains to point out, polls are snapshots and not forecasts; Biden’s lead could dissipate, though this race has been unusually stable so far. Contrary to Trump’s protestations, Biden’s lead as it exists now is real—and given how hard it has been for anything to dent Trump’s carapace, it’s worth examining closely. Stranger still, the impetus appears to be race—something that has been both Trump’s Achilles’ heel and his secret weapon throughout his political career. For some reason, it’s affecting his political standing differently than it has before.

. . .

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mockbee
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Re: Predictions....

#37 Post by mockbee » Sat Jul 04, 2020 4:18 am

kv wrote:
Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:02 pm
Take your tin foil hat off...it's gonna be ok dude :thumb:


Do you see trump's mt rushmore charade as more tone deaf antics?......or as more shrewd posturing?

Just curious.


Yeah, I know it's going to be alright with at least four more years of this shit. Just baffling that people aren't seeing the same movie..... really the only way anything changes.

:noclue:

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kv
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Re: Predictions....

#38 Post by kv » Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:35 am

I see him rallying his shrinking base...

People fucking hated Hillary....plus tons didn't wanna vote for a women...and most thought Clinton was set to win big....trump barely won...

I've noticed enough erosion of his base that I don't see it being close...plus I know a bunch of people who did vote for trump that won't now...and tons who will vote for anyone but trump...sure people are excited to vote for trump and people aren't amped on Joe...I still don't think it matters...people just want a real Cabinet...a decent vice..a vast improvement, even if Joe falls asleep all the time

I know you'll take the other side...that's fine...we'll know soon enough

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Artemis
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Re: Predictions....

#39 Post by Artemis » Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:42 pm

I think Trump has reached the end of the line. He's not going to win this time. He may have a small, loyal following now but he's ruined too much, even for his supporters in the past. America is unrecognizable these days. :sad:

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mockbee
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Re: Predictions....

#40 Post by mockbee » Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:05 pm

kv wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:35 am
I see him rallying his shrinking base...
I see him very effectively roiling the political/cultural left. Making it de facto center. Not on board with them? You are a Trump supporter. Making that, falsly, a "safe" place to stand is his stated goal. Making writing off white working class entirety, a okay. No problem with the left. They feel safe with actually saying that 'white working class' is offensive and need to be purged from discussions..... Even though they are 40% of the US voting population. This does not go unnoticed. That's a lot of people...... :noclue:
[Symone] Sanders has pushed the campaign to be wary of language that frustrates black activists, for example urging staffers to avoid the term “white working class,” according to a person familiar with the discussions.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washin ... utType=amp
Not trying to change your mind. Just being clear.

I know you'll take the other side...that's fine...we'll know soon enough

Sure will. We'll see which sequel has the surprise ending...
:thumb:

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