Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

Discussion relating to current events, politics, religion, etc

Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

Biden
3
21%
Sanders
11
79%
 
Total votes: 14

Message
Author
User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2614
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am

Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#1 Post by mockbee » Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:04 pm

Here is a more relevant poll for you folks....

No third option.....
:wave:

User avatar
kv
Posts: 7770
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:08 pm
Location: South Bay, SoCal

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#2 Post by kv » Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:46 pm

Prob Sanders because if Biden wins the nod Bernie people will be pissy (again) and not vote for Biden....while if Bernie wins every Biden supporter would vote for any one fish, two fish, red fish or blue fish over trump

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 6720
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#3 Post by Hype » Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:29 am

I'm concerned that internet echo chambers make Sanders fans think he has a better shot than he does. I wish he had a better shot, and was 30 years younger, but there has never been a(n openly) non-Christian President, and there has only been one Catholic President (and four Unitarians...). I'd like to be able to say that the "anybody but Trump" sentiment would win out here, but so many more people don't vote than do that it's hard to say this with a straight face.

Biden is old and confused and creepy as hell, but he probably does have the best shot. :confused:

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2614
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#4 Post by mockbee » Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:03 pm

Hype wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:29 am
I'm concerned that internet echo chambers make Sanders fans think he has a better shot than he does.
Very true. He has very strong niche support (to be generous, this support is in most states and isn't only the college/millennial crowd, but it stops there). He is not bringing in new people to the fold. And I don't see new people coming on when he has the onslaught of the Trump (and republican/moderate) socialism/communism hyperbole hurled his way. It will come from the HRC moderate set as well, even if he is the nominee, I guarantee that. The moderate neoliberal Dems are dead, at least for a long, long while, if Bernie wins the nomination, and especially the presidency.

Also, and critically, I see the well to do baby boom liberals that are retired or about to, seriously .....-seriously-..... question their vote for Bernie.
30,000 DOW is a big number and it has allowed my parents to go wild on international travel, buying 2 houses, living high on their 401k retirement.
I don't see how, at a minimum, half of that 30,000 evaporates overnight with a Bernie win on Nov 3. Hell, we were at 15,000 4 years ago, when Obama was in. You bring a "socialist" in the markets collapse, whether that fiscally makes sense doesn't matter. All markets are just a perception game anyways. What do people with the levers "think" will happen.....
Baby Boomers look out for number 1 (like us all in the end)
:noclue:
Hype wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:29 am
I wish he had a better shot, and was 30 years younger, but there has never been a(n openly) non-Christian President, and there has only been one Catholic President (and four Unitarians...). I'd like to be able to say that the "anybody but Trump" sentiment would win out here, but so many more people don't vote than do that it's hard to say this with a straight face.
The US is super religious, but I don't see that impacting people's voting patterns to a critical degree regarding candidates religion (outside the staunch and established Democrat vs Republican split that we have always seen) Now if we have a "devout" atheist, yeah that would be a different story, but I don't see Jewish as different than Catholic in this instance, and we got over that hump in the 60s. Look at the previous table in the Dem Campaign thread, hardly a difference in voting patterns from McCain to Romney.

More important than religion from now on is "celebrity". People who don't normally vote, will vote for someone they feel they know, like Donald Trump. My prediction is that a "politician" will never win a national election again in the United States. Sure the Celebrity will be "re-elected" but never a Senator, House member, Governor etc. will never be elected in the first place. Unless that person (someone like AOC possibly) completely and totally disavowed all the elites and political class, like Trump.

It started with Kennedy and rose with Reagan and has only escalated since. No meat and potatoes politician has been elected president since. Why would it change now? It's only gone into overdrive.

Celebrity is our new (been around for a while) religion.

:noclue:
Hype wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:29 am
Biden is old and confused and creepy as hell, but he probably does have the best shot. :confused:
I couldn't think of a worse candidate for the Democrats than Biden, I really couldn't.
He would do much, much worse than Sanders.
And he will be the nominee!
:hs:
:lol:

User avatar
chaos
Posts: 4548
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:23 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#5 Post by chaos » Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:37 pm

At this point I don't think either Biden or Sanders will be the nominee. I think Buttigieg is going to pull it off.

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 6720
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#6 Post by Hype » Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:00 am

Now I don't know what the hell is happening.

Buttigieg is a terrible candidate for all kinds of reasons, but any of these guys would be better than Trump. Yang just dropped out, predictably, though his $1000 a month idea would have saved about 30 million Americans, long-term from the horrors that await us.

User avatar
Pandemonium
Posts: 5396
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:18 pm

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#7 Post by Pandemonium » Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:13 am

chaos wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:37 pm
At this point I don't think either Biden or Sanders will be the nominee. I think Buttigieg is going to pull it off.
IMO, it's going all the way to the Democratic Convention. Next week is going to be critical for Biden - if he shows up under 3rd again, I think he's toast. That said, I think he'll outlast Warren who I think is already on life-support. I really think it's going to see-saw between the top 3 every primary Tuesday, especially when Bloomberg starts collecting delegates.

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7108
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#8 Post by SR » Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:55 am

Yeah, the split delegates could easily result in a split convention. Biden's super pac is sending out distress signals for solidarity, but we'll see. His rose garden approach to campaigning has clearly not worked.

Warren's collapse fascinating to watch.

If the numbers are to be trusted based on the limited demographic of NH, we can count on about a 50/50 split from white voters between the liberal and the moderate candidates. Every cycle is the same as we look to the young voters to emerge and actually vote, but the interesting fact is there are more millennials of voting age than there are boomers alive.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2614
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#9 Post by mockbee » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:53 am

Iowa, however disastrous that was logistically, was a huge sign.

I am actually quite surprised at how few young people, "new" voters, did NOT come out for Bernie. They said turnout was only slightly better than 2016...and only 75%... :yikes: !!!!....of the turnout from 2008.....crazy.
Not good at all for Bernie going forward.


Buttigieg has all sorts of holes that can be mined, he's not been vetted at all yet. I don't see any minority vote going his way.

Yeah brokered convention for sure. It's curious to see the money and power players shifting to Buttigieg. If the big states go for Biden he's still the guy I think.

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7108
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#10 Post by SR » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:48 am

More from Matt. He likes the saturated D pack and thinks it favors Sanders mirroring the Republican race for '16. Funny on Biden....something like, "Biden shouldn't be driving, let alone running for Prez" :lol:

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/p ... 1QX9f9vLL0

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2614
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#11 Post by mockbee » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:54 am

Hmmmm...


Yeah like 5 semis headed for the same intersection at 80 mph....... :popcorn:

Bernie only has a 25% cap, (including a Warren bump when she drops out) The thing is he isn't Trump. I dont think he is ruthless enough to bring in new people. He would have to go for the jugular on the other candidates and ESPECIALLY media. Maybe that is his plan to shift after it looks like it's him for sure. Hes a yeller, but still to nice.... He would have to transform in a "natural" way. Be WAY more like Trump to bring in new people. Ironically he is too well known as a politician......

:noclue:


Biden is sooooooo bad. :lolol: :lolol: :lolol:

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 6720
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#12 Post by Hype » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:56 am

SR wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:55 am
Yeah, the split delegates could easily result in a split convention. Biden's super pac is sending out distress signals for solidarity, but we'll see. His rose garden approach to campaigning has clearly not worked.

Warren's collapse fascinating to watch.

If the numbers are to be trusted based on the limited demographic of NH, we can count on about a 50/50 split from white voters between the liberal and the moderate candidates. Every cycle is the same as we look to the young voters to emerge and actually vote, but the interesting fact is there are more millennials of voting age than there are boomers alive.
Young people, by and large, just don't vote in anything like the percentages that older folks do. In cases like the Boomers, this can be overcome by pushing hard to increase the ratio slightly, since the sheer numbers are so much larger than other generation-blocs. This does seem to be happening again with Millenials, as you note. But Millenials aren't the youngest voting bloc -- there's a generation after them that is even more progressive, but smaller. They're far less likely to vote in large enough numbers to swing anything. Meanwhile, Millenials are statistically aging out of their youthful liberalism, the same way the Boomers did.

The most annoying thing about all of this is that for the past 50 years, more Americans have been progressive than not, but they all live on the coasts in two States.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2614
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#13 Post by mockbee » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:10 am

Hype wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:56 am
.

The most annoying thing about all of this is that for the past 50 years, more Americans have been progressive than not, but they all live on the coasts in two States.
Progressivism is good for some things, but it is by no means a panacea.
:noclue:

I have lived in the three most "progressive" cities in the US on the coasts, combined for the last 20 years.

Socially it's great on the surface. But fiscally, and enacting some of the social legislation, progressivism is a freaking nighmare. It is so bloated and directionless and actually causes some real harm for the people it is intended to help. What happens more often than not is gentrification, by means of "progressive" legislation. And all the at-risk people get kicked out. They go to the undesirable suburbs where progressive legislation has no interest or sway. Or they go to Texas or other states where people are less interested in your business. That's what I've seen, time and time again in these prosperous "progressive" cities. The heart of what you are talking about.

And if you go into the countryside rural areas of CA, NY, OR etc you see a lot of Red....
:wave:

:noclue:

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 6720
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#14 Post by Hype » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:52 pm

I think you're talking about multiple separate (but sometimes mixed together) issues there. Progressivism as a political ideology just implies trying to make progressive changes in policy and implementation aimed toward making things better over time. It's opposed by conservatism, which in its simplest form is simply the desire to maintain (i.e., conserve) vessels of perceived value, and to avoid unnecessary risks that inhere in change.

There's nothing in either of those that implies fiscal irresponsibility, or fiscal responsibility (and certainly nothing in progressive politics requires gentrification... what the hell even is this? Quintessential progressive policy is to massively increase city social services...). Pointing to instances of administrative or expense bloat in progressive governments doesn't settle the matter, since you'd have to provide the broader context in these cases. Sometimes progressive governments are elected after a disastrous run by prior governments, where existing institutions, infrastructure, etc., are in disrepair and disarray. In these cases, it's understandable that some of that continues, or is irreparable, or is exacerbated by some policies. But that doesn't tell us that these policies are bad, or unnecessary, or ill-advised, or whatever.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2614
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#15 Post by mockbee » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:18 pm

Hype wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:52 pm
I think you're talking about multiple separate (but sometimes mixed together) issues there. Progressivism as a political ideology just implies trying to make progressive changes in policy and implementation aimed toward making things better over time. It's opposed by conservatism, which in its simplest form is simply the desire to maintain (i.e., conserve) vessels of perceived value, and to avoid unnecessary risks that inhere in change.

There's nothing in either of those that implies fiscal irresponsibility, or fiscal responsibility (and certainly nothing in progressive politics requires gentrification... what the hell even is this? Quintessential progressive policy is to massively increase city social services...). Pointing to instances of administrative or expense bloat in progressive governments doesn't settle the matter, since you'd have to provide the broader context in these cases. Sometimes progressive governments are elected after a disastrous run by prior governments, where existing institutions, infrastructure, etc., are in disrepair and disarray. In these cases, it's understandable that some of that continues, or is irreparable, or is exacerbated by some policies. But that doesn't tell us that these policies are bad, or unnecessary, or ill-advised, or whatever.
I agree withbeverything you say here. (Oh...except for the Gentrification comment. That requires a whole other thread.....) I just don't have the time/bandwwidth or interest to write a dissertation about it... :lol:

Point being, everything you say does go down in "progressive" movements. Meaning I do see a lot of shit that is actually implemented in these movements that has hurt the people they are trying to help. Yeah, its a mixed bag, but in that bag I have seen more harm than good. I would hope "progressivism" survives, but does a lot more soul searching in how/why they are doing what they do.

"Poverty Pimps" is a phase often thrown around by the people/families on the street that I have directly talked to. Just my experience...
:noclue:

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7108
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#16 Post by SR » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:13 pm

Hype wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:56 am
SR wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:55 am
Yeah, the split delegates could easily result in a split convention. Biden's super pac is sending out distress signals for solidarity, but we'll see. His rose garden approach to campaigning has clearly not worked.

Warren's collapse fascinating to watch.

If the numbers are to be trusted based on the limited demographic of NH, we can count on about a 50/50 split from white voters between the liberal and the moderate candidates. Every cycle is the same as we look to the young voters to emerge and actually vote, but the interesting fact is there are more millennials of voting age than there are boomers alive.
Young people, by and large, just don't vote in anything like the percentages that older folks do. In cases like the Boomers, this can be overcome by pushing hard to increase the ratio slightly, since the sheer numbers are so much larger than other generation-blocs. This does seem to be happening again with Millenials, as you note. But Millenials aren't the youngest voting bloc -- there's a generation after them that is even more progressive, but smaller. They're far less likely to vote in large enough numbers to swing anything. Meanwhile, Millenials are statistically aging out of their youthful liberalism, the same way the Boomers did.

The most annoying thing about all of this is that for the past 50 years, more Americans have been progressive than not, but they all live on the coasts in two States.
"If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain"
-So many people

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2614
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#17 Post by mockbee » Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:22 pm

NYTimes and mainstream media sooooooo doesn't want Bernie...... :lolol: :lol: :lol:

This is going to be very interesting...... :nod:

More so than I suspected...... :noclue:

I still dont see how the super delegates christen Sanders....

Neither does HRC or any Democrat/media with power.

:drink:

User avatar
kv
Posts: 7770
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:08 pm
Location: South Bay, SoCal

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#18 Post by kv » Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:41 pm

Fuck it...all in on Bernie! :drink:

User avatar
chaos
Posts: 4548
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:23 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#19 Post by chaos » Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:54 pm

Twitter has been a riot tonight. Apparently Chris Matthews and James Carville are losing it tonight on MSNBC over the the Sanders win. :lol:

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7108
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?

#20 Post by SR » Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:04 am

Bernie crushed in Nevada. Subtract Warren's coalition and add to it, and it's much more significant. Moderates are contemplating what their votes did in "16 and are leaning Bernie. I think SC will be a Bernie slump relatively speaking and Super Tuesday, he'll crush again. Avoiding a contested convention largely hinges on Texas, which I don't have much hope for.

Post Reply