Page 2 of 3
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:06 pm
by mockbee
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:52 pm
by Artemis
I liked Amy, too bad she had to drop out. I don't like that she immediately backed Biden.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:19 pm
by SR
Strap in. Should be quite a ride tomorrow. Kinda cool to actually have my vote count this go around. Sucks for the people (1 million here in Cali) who've already voted possibly for the drop outs.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:23 pm
by mockbee
SR wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:19 pm
Sucks for the people (1 million here in Cali) who've already voted possibly for the drop outs.
Yeah, that's sorta weird isn't it....?
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:17 pm
by Hype
I predict Biden will win the popular vote by, I don't know... a million votes? But all of those votes will be in California. Trump reelected. But not a landslide.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:34 am
by mockbee
SR wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:19 pm
Strap in. Should be quite a ride tomorrow. Kinda cool to actually have my vote count this go around. Sucks for the people (1 million here in Cali) who've already voted possibly for the drop outs.
I assume you are hoping Bernie doesn't do
too well......
If Bernie wins out (gets half/+ states incl. TX/CA)....you are in big trouble, and Hype
will lose his bet......
Biden will (seems obvious to me already
)wither and die vs Trump.......
Just trying to be as clear and blunt as possible here, wouldn't want any confusion........
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:28 am
by mockbee
mockbee wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:23 pm
SR wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:19 pm
Sucks for the people (1 million here in Cali) who've already voted possibly for the drop outs.
Yeah, that's sorta weird isn't it....?
Big, big false narrative bonus for Bernie......
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:46 am
by SR
Hype wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:17 pm
I predict Biden will win the popular vote by, I don't know... a million votes? But all of those votes will be in California. Trump reelected. But not a landslide.
So, Bernie is the only candidate who has stated unequivocally, and maintained over time, that he will do everything in his power to support the dem nomination. If he is to be believed and I know of no reason why he shouldn't be, I think it could be a real factor in a trump defeat. Obviously, I don't like that scenario. Really the only thing I am enjoying is how Bernie is making the centrist to right democrats squirm.
I follow the polls. The small windows of time are better prognosticators than the larger ones, but as the latter goes Bernie shows better than Biden in the General. Again, what Bernie says is fairly true; it would require a massive voter turnout, which as has been addressed here many times, is an American anomaly...but not impossible. Eventually, Warren supporters might be a reliable boost, but I don't trust Warren to an advocate for her platform unless she is the one fronting it. Gallantry isn't her strong suit.
Today will be a really good test of Bernie's prowess
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:19 pm
by Hype
SR wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:46 am
Hype wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:17 pm
I predict Biden will win the popular vote by, I don't know... a million votes? But all of those votes will be in California. Trump reelected. But not a landslide.
So, Bernie is the only candidate who has stated unequivocally, and maintained over time, that he will do everything in his power to support the dem nomination. If he is to be believed and I know of no reason why he shouldn't be, I think it could be a real factor in a trump defeat. Obviously, I don't like that scenario. Really the only thing I am enjoying is how Bernie is making the centrist to right democrats squirm.
I follow the polls. The small windows of time are better prognosticators than the larger ones, but as the latter goes Bernie shows better than Biden in the General. Again, what Bernie says is fairly true; it would require a massive voter turnout, which as has been addressed here many times, is an American anomaly...but not impossible. Eventually, Warren supporters might be a reliable boost, but I don't trust Warren to an advocate for her platform unless she is the one fronting it. Gallantry isn't her strong suit.
Today will be a really good test of Bernie's prowess
I like Bernie. I agree with so much of his platform. But the establishment democrats appear to be dead set on preventing him from the nomination.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:36 am
by Pandemonium
Hype wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:19 pm
I like Bernie. I agree with so much of his platform. But the establishment democrats appear to be dead set on preventing him from the nomination.
Yep, the fix is in, that's just politics. IMO after the early leads Sanders posted the first few weeks, the Dem party woke up and realized that if they wanted a real chance to beat Trump in Nov, they'd better start coalescing around Biden. Bloomberg just dropped out (that was a half billion well spent, ha ha) also immediately throwing his support to Biden leaving Warren the only one left sucking the few votes away from the other two.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:02 am
by mockbee
Final numbers in.....
$452 Million/1,667,602 votes = $271.05 a vote.
Well, I will say I thought it would be much worse.....I still wouldn't vote for him for $270....would have to be at least $500....
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:22 am
by chaos
Bloomberg has dropped out and endorsed Biden.
The Democrats are starting to herd their cats.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:46 am
by Hype
Biden would be /fine/... not great. Not as inspiring as Obama, but probably a pretty similar administration. A lot of longstanding shitty issues the US has won't be addressed (let along solved) even if he is elected. It's not looking good, though.
I still don't think Trump has anything like Reagan-level support though, so I'm sticking to what I said.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:51 am
by chaos
chaos wrote: ↑Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:38 pm
Mockbee may be right since Mayor Pete dropped out before Super Tuesday.
Just to clarify, I think Mockbee may be right that Biden gets the nomination. I don't think Trump will win if he does the nomination, although it will be a nail biter.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:22 pm
by mockbee
chaos wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:51 am
chaos wrote: ↑Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:38 pm
Mockbee may be right since Mayor Pete dropped out before Super Tuesday.
Just to clarify, I think Mockbee may be right that Biden gets the nomination. I don't think Trump will win if he does the nomination, although it will be a nail biter.
Care to make a wager....
$60.
You: Biden wins electoral.
Me: Trump wins >45 states and >55% popular
Anything else a draw.
I need $60 more, after I collect from Hype, to get the book I want......
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:33 pm
by drwintercreeper
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:50 pm
by chaos
mockbee wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:22 pm
chaos wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:51 am
chaos wrote: ↑Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:38 pm
Mockbee may be right since Mayor Pete dropped out before Super Tuesday.
Just to clarify, I think Mockbee may be right that Biden gets the nomination. I don't think Trump will win if he does the nomination, although it will be a nail biter.
Care to make a wager....
$60.
You: Biden wins electoral.
Me: Trump wins >45 states and >55% popular
Anything else a draw.
I need $60 more, after I collect from Hype, to get the book I want......
45 states?!?
Don't forget Biden now has Bloomberg $$$.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:59 pm
by mockbee
chaos wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:50 pm
45 states?!?
Yup.
48 is a little rich.....
45 eeeeeh 50/50
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:42 pm
by mockbee
I've never lost a bet in my life.
I only wager when I know I have 90-95% chance of not losing.....
Have spent about a total of $5 on slots, admit that was a mistake....
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:57 am
by mockbee
Wow.
Sanders gets slaughtered..........
Can't even win King County possibly. Its neck and neck, he should have been absolutely killing it there. Same with Henneppin Co from last week. Those were his bellwethers....
California was a complete anomaly. Then he just won NH.....caucuses are stupid.
I always thought Biden would win the nomination, but didn't think it would be THIS easy.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:14 am
by Hype
The messaging about Sanders being "socialist" works a lot better on non-political working people than it does on politically savvy voters. I also suspect very few everyday Christian Americans would vote for a Jewish candidate for president. Which is ironic... but never mind.
Biden's going to lose states like Michigan if he keeps yelling at auto workers who think he's going to take their guns away, though.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:01 am
by mockbee
Hype wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:14 am
The messaging about Sanders being "socialist" works a lot better on non-political working people than it does on politically savvy voters. I also suspect very few everyday Christian Americans would vote for a Jewish candidate for president. Which is ironic... but never mind.
Explain King County (Seattle) and Henneppin County (Mpls).
This is highly educated, highly politically engaged, euro-centric, secular liberal bastions of progressives ....... Sanders tied or lost.
Way worse than 2016..... What? Besides misogyny which I am sure played a part....
Also US may just be too brainwashed to realize that Sanders is just your modern day Debs...something that can be very "American". ..not European. But still......King County.......
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:20 am
by Hype
mockbee wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:01 am
Hype wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:14 am
The messaging about Sanders being "socialist" works a lot better on non-political working people than it does on politically savvy voters. I also suspect very few everyday Christian Americans would vote for a Jewish candidate for president. Which is ironic... but never mind.
Explain King County (Seattle) and Henneppin County (Mpls).
This is highly educated, highly politically engaged, euro-centric, secular liberal bastions of progressives ....... Sanders tied or lost.
Way worse than 2016..... What? Besides misogyny which I am sure played a part....
Also US may just be too brainwashed to realize that Sanders is just your modern day Debs...something that can be very "American". ..not European. But still......King County.......
I don't know how to explain any specific outcome of any vote. But what I said doesn't conflict with those two cases you mention. The fact that Red Scare-style fear-mongering works better on working-class folks doesn't mean it doesn't work on educated affluent folks. But well-off people have their own reasons for not voting progressive (protecting the status quo, their money, their neighbourhoods, etc.).
I don't find it confusing at all.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:47 pm
by mockbee
Hype wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:20 am
.......But well-off people have their own reasons for not voting progressive (protecting the status quo, their money, their neighbourhoods, etc.).
This is the explanation here. Liberals are hypocrites. (Just like the conservatives...... )
I totally get why Matt Stone/Trey Parker hate them too.
Just, the misogyny overruled in 2016. Bernie killed in the educated secular elite counties in the primaries then.
Re: Poll: Biden or Sanders has better chance vs. Trump?
Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:48 pm
by mockbee
California is just.....different.
