Coronavirus

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#51 Post by Hype » Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:54 am

mockbee wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:11 pm
Hokahey wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:10 pm

It's estimated that 40-70% of the world is going to catch this, and 80% of those will be mild or even asymptomatic -- corona-viruses cause 30% of all colds (rhinoviruses cause the other 70%). But for the other 20%, most of whom will be over 60, there will be pneumonia and bacterial infections and death for upwards of 15% of them, and for the other 85%, hospitalization, and a long recovery.
What is the time frame for that 40-70%? If it's this year, that seems grossly over exaggerated.
I wouldnt say a year is exaggerated at all.... :noclue:

I probably already had/have it.......the Oregon case was literally where I was last week.

A 1,000,000+ people on the west coast probably already have/had it. It started here almost a month ago based on their forensic findings to date.

We are sooooo behind on the science....:tiphat:
So, not to single you out, Hoka, but that's a great example of how humans are not great at statistical reasoning. The R0 factor for COVID-19 is high enough, and the severity of the disease among most people is so mild, that 40-70% is not exaggerated. It's already in more than 95 countries (it was 77 countries a day or two ago).

Consider how numbers double. Start with one person with a disease, and assume that each person will tend to spread it to about two other people (COVID-19 seems to have a more infectious rate than that, but two is easier to understand). Now take into account that symptoms tend to be observed between 1 and 2 weeks. Let's go with 2 weeks. That means we can count the increased numbers fairly accurately every two weeks, or 26 times in a year. So, how many people would get it after 26 two-week intervals, starting from one person at a rate of 2 people catching it per previous person infected? (which, again, is way oversimplified)

Week 2: 3 people.
Week 4: 9 people.
Week 6: 27 people.
Week 8: 81 people.
Week 10: 243 people.
Week 12: 729 people.
Week 14: 2187 people.
Week 16: 6561 people.
Week 18: 19683 people.
Week 20: 59049 people.
Week 22: 177147 people.
Week 24: 531441 people.
Week 26: 1594329 people (after just half a year, starting from one person).
Week 28: 4782987 people.
Week 30: 14348961 people.
Week 32: 43046883 people.
Week 34: 129140649 people.
Week 36: 387421947 people.
Week 38: 1162265841 people.
Week 40: 3486797523 people. (This is pretty close to 40% of the world's current population, after just 40 weeks.)
Week 42: 10460392569 people. --- This is more people than are currently alive on Earth.

Keep in mind that this is a rate of transmission of only 2 people per infected person every two weeks. Because the disease is so mild in 80% of people, and because it's so widespread already, these numbers are likely to increase much faster.

Here are fairly current numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

100,000+ cases, of which about 45% still haven't recovered.

The incubation period is 2-14 days (but potentially up to 27 days). This means that cases may increase faster than tripling every two weeks. This all depends on the ability of countries to mobilize enforcement of emergency health measures, quarantines, etc.

So, no, I don't think 40-70% is exaggerated. Keep in mind that the reported numbers depend entirely on how much testing is actually going on. The United States has not been testing anywhere near enough, and yet cases have been found all over the country, on both coasts.

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Re: Coronavirus

#52 Post by Hokahey » Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:19 am

Hype wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:54 am
mockbee wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:11 pm
Hokahey wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:10 pm

It's estimated that 40-70% of the world is going to catch this, and 80% of those will be mild or even asymptomatic -- corona-viruses cause 30% of all colds (rhinoviruses cause the other 70%). But for the other 20%, most of whom will be over 60, there will be pneumonia and bacterial infections and death for upwards of 15% of them, and for the other 85%, hospitalization, and a long recovery.
What is the time frame for that 40-70%? If it's this year, that seems grossly over exaggerated.
I wouldnt say a year is exaggerated at all.... :noclue:

I probably already had/have it.......the Oregon case was literally where I was last week.

A 1,000,000+ people on the west coast probably already have/had it. It started here almost a month ago based on their forensic findings to date.

We are sooooo behind on the science....:tiphat:
So, not to single you out, Hoka, but that's a great example of how humans are not great at statistical reasoning. The R0 factor for COVID-19 is high enough, and the severity of the disease among most people is so mild, that 40-70% is not exaggerated. It's already in more than 95 countries (it was 77 countries a day or two ago).

Consider how numbers double. Start with one person with a disease, and assume that each person will tend to spread it to about two other people (COVID-19 seems to have a more infectious rate than that, but two is easier to understand). Now take into account that symptoms tend to be observed between 1 and 2 weeks. Let's go with 2 weeks. That means we can count the increased numbers fairly accurately every two weeks, or 26 times in a year. So, how many people would get it after 26 two-week intervals, starting from one person at a rate of 2 people catching it per previous person infected? (which, again, is way oversimplified)

Week 2: 3 people.
Week 4: 9 people.
Week 6: 27 people.
Week 8: 81 people.
Week 10: 243 people.
Week 12: 729 people.
Week 14: 2187 people.
Week 16: 6561 people.
Week 18: 19683 people.
Week 20: 59049 people.
Week 22: 177147 people.
Week 24: 531441 people.
Week 26: 1594329 people (after just half a year, starting from one person).
Week 28: 4782987 people.
Week 30: 14348961 people.
Week 32: 43046883 people.
Week 34: 129140649 people.
Week 36: 387421947 people.
Week 38: 1162265841 people.
Week 40: 3486797523 people. (This is pretty close to 40% of the world's current population, after just 40 weeks.)
Week 42: 10460392569 people. --- This is more people than are currently alive on Earth.

Keep in mind that this is a rate of transmission of only 2 people per infected person every two weeks. Because the disease is so mild in 80% of people, and because it's so widespread already, these numbers are likely to increase much faster.

Here are fairly current numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

100,000+ cases, of which about 45% still haven't recovered.

The incubation period is 2-14 days (but potentially up to 27 days). This means that cases may increase faster than tripling every two weeks. This all depends on the ability of countries to mobilize enforcement of emergency health measures, quarantines, etc.

So, no, I don't think 40-70% is exaggerated. Keep in mind that the reported numbers depend entirely on how much testing is actually going on. The United States has not been testing anywhere near enough, and yet cases have been found all over the country, on both coasts.
I do understand statistical reasoning.

But this assumes no disruption in the spread, no relief from warmer weather (debatable), etc.

Will 40 to 70% of people have a this Coronavirus eventually? Yes. That's without question. I suspect it will be another seasonal virus that has to be considered on an annual basis.

I was only saying that I do not believe that number would be hit in 2020 by any means..

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#53 Post by Hype » Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:30 am

There are already over 100,000 reported cases, and we're only about 10 weeks in.

Italy has hundreds of deaths and has shut down all schools.

Your scepticism about the rate of spread is still unwarranted, given what experts already know. Take a look at just one recent medical article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lang ... 7/fulltext

Again,
To estimate how easily a virus spreads, scientists calculate its "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). R0 predicts the number of people who can catch a given bug from a single infected person, Live Science previously reported. Currently, the R0 for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease COVID-19, is estimated at about 2.2, meaning a single infected person will infect about 2.2 others, on average. By comparison, the flu has an R0 of 1.3.
The R0 number doesn't ignore "disruption to the spread", it takes it into account.
Based on R0 of 2.2, the numbers I give above are pretty accurate. Without effective containment measures, we will hit 40% of the world infected within 40 weeks.

There have been some years of particularly bad flu where about a quarter of the world was infected. The flu has an R0 of just above half of COVID-19, and we have a vaccine for the flu, so again, that suggests these numbers aren't exaggerated.

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Artemis
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Re: Coronavirus

#54 Post by Artemis » Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:48 pm

SXSW 2020 CXLD!

https://www.sxsw.com/2020-event-update/
March 6, 2020: City of Austin Cancels SXSW March Events

The City of Austin has cancelled the March dates for SXSW and SXSW EDU. SXSW will faithfully follow the City’s directions.

We are devastated to share this news with you. “The show must go on” is in our DNA, and this is the first time in 34 years that the March event will not take place. We are now working through the ramifications of this unprecedented situation.

As recently as Wednesday, Austin Public Health stated that “there’s no evidence that closing SXSW or any other gatherings will make the community safer.” However, this situation evolved rapidly, and we honor and respect the City of Austin’s decision. We are committed to do our part to help protect our staff, attendees, and fellow Austinites.

We are exploring options to reschedule the event and are working to provide a virtual SXSW online experience as soon as possible for 2020 participants, starting with SXSW EDU. For our registrants, clients, and participants we will be in touch as soon as possible and will publish an FAQ.

We understand the gravity of the situation for all the creatives who utilize SXSW to accelerate their careers; for the global businesses; and for Austin and the hundreds of small businesses – venues, theatres, vendors, production companies, service industry staff, and other partners that rely so heavily on the increased business that SXSW attracts.

We will continue to work hard to bring you the unique events you love. Though it’s true that our March 2020 event will no longer take place in the way that we intended, we continue to strive toward our purpose – helping creative people achieve their goals.

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Re: Coronavirus

#55 Post by Hype » Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:01 pm

There have been some moronic individuals in New Zealand and other places, knowingly leaving quarantine while carrying the disease. The American response to it has been disastrous. It looks like Mike Pence is being set up on purpose to take the heat off Trump, and make it so that Trump doesn't actually have to do anything. He can just be disappointed that the "good job" Pence did wasn't good enough.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world is starting to notice that the death rate in the US is now 5%, which is higher than it should be -- because of the lack of testing. Testing and containment are the only measures that will actually stop this from getting much, much worse. So, it looks like a lot more people are going to die. Nearly 50 more Italians are reported dead just today, with nearly 500 in critical condition. This is going to overwhelm so many hospitals that people are going to die of other things, too.

Panic isn't necessary, but some sort of concern and understanding and precaution would be wise.

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Larry B.
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Re: Coronavirus

#56 Post by Larry B. » Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:17 pm

In Chile, our dictatorship's fail-proof measure was to have every Chilean coming from Italy, China and a few other countries sign a sworn statement saying they haven't had any flu-like symptoms. That will show that pesky virus!

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nausearockpig
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Re: Coronavirus

#57 Post by nausearockpig » Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:19 pm

Can someone send me a pack of dunny paper? All of our shops are out.

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mockbee
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Re: Coronavirus

#58 Post by mockbee » Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:29 am

nausearockpig wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:19 pm
Can someone send me a pack of dunny paper? All of our shops are out.
What the hell is dunny paper? :noclue:
:wink:


When I was in wilderness survival class in college
, it was suggested to use leaves (of a certain variety - stay away from leaves of three!)....
.......or, seriously... rocks. The smooth kind!
Reusable, too!

:hehe:


Good luck!
:tiphat:

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mockbee
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Re: Coronavirus

#59 Post by mockbee » Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:44 am

Image
:scared:



:lostit:

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Artemis
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Re: Coronavirus

#60 Post by Artemis » Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:20 am

nausearockpig wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:19 pm
Can someone send me a pack of dunny paper? All of our shops are out.
I just bought 3 packages for $2.99(CAD) ($3.35AUD) each on special.

If you want to pay for shipping, I'll send you some. :lol:

Image

creep
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Re: Coronavirus

#61 Post by creep » Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:15 am

Artemis wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:20 am
nausearockpig wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:19 pm
Can someone send me a pack of dunny paper? All of our shops are out.
I just bought 3 packages for $2.99(CAD) ($3.35AUD) each on special.

If you want to pay for shipping, I'll send you some. :lol:

Image
:essence:

Image

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mockbee
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Re: Coronavirus

#62 Post by mockbee » Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:42 am

:essence: :balls: :waits:



:wave:

Image
SCIENCE
Are Wet Wipes Wrecking the World's Sewers?
The battle over what it means to be “flushable”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatl ... le/504098/

creep
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Re: Coronavirus

#63 Post by creep » Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:05 pm

why would you assume i flush them? i am more responsible than that.i just put them in a plastic bag and bring them in the car and throw them out the window.

most modern wastewater plants screen out baby wipes, syringes, tampons and anything else that gets flushed. they then go to the landfill. putting grease down the drain is much worse for the sewer system.

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Larry B.
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Re: Coronavirus

#64 Post by Larry B. » Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:14 pm

creep wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:05 pm
why would you assume i flush them? i am more responsible than that.i just put them in a plastic bag and bring them in the car and throw them out the window.
:lol: :lol:

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mockbee
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Re: Coronavirus

#65 Post by mockbee » Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:20 pm

creep wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:05 pm
why would you assume i flush them? i am more responsible than that.i just put them in a plastic bag and bring them in the car and throw them out the window.

most modern wastewater plants screen out baby wipes, syringes, tampons and anything else that gets flushed. they then go to the landfill. putting grease down the drain is much worse for the sewer system.
:lol:

Okay...so what DO you do with them...? :noclue:

I would actually be a proponent of throwing them out the window. At least people would be aware of a problem.

:banana:

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#66 Post by Hype » Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:48 pm

Hype wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:54 am
mockbee wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:11 pm
Hokahey wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:10 pm

It's estimated that 40-70% of the world is going to catch this, and 80% of those will be mild or even asymptomatic -- corona-viruses cause 30% of all colds (rhinoviruses cause the other 70%). But for the other 20%, most of whom will be over 60, there will be pneumonia and bacterial infections and death for upwards of 15% of them, and for the other 85%, hospitalization, and a long recovery.
What is the time frame for that 40-70%? If it's this year, that seems grossly over exaggerated.
I wouldnt say a year is exaggerated at all.... :noclue:

I probably already had/have it.......the Oregon case was literally where I was last week.

A 1,000,000+ people on the west coast probably already have/had it. It started here almost a month ago based on their forensic findings to date.

We are sooooo behind on the science....:tiphat:
So, not to single you out, Hoka, but that's a great example of how humans are not great at statistical reasoning. The R0 factor for COVID-19 is high enough, and the severity of the disease among most people is so mild, that 40-70% is not exaggerated. It's already in more than 95 countries (it was 77 countries a day or two ago).

Consider how numbers double. Start with one person with a disease, and assume that each person will tend to spread it to about two other people (COVID-19 seems to have a more infectious rate than that, but two is easier to understand). Now take into account that symptoms tend to be observed between 1 and 2 weeks. Let's go with 2 weeks. That means we can count the increased numbers fairly accurately every two weeks, or 26 times in a year. So, how many people would get it after 26 two-week intervals, starting from one person at a rate of 2 people catching it per previous person infected? (which, again, is way oversimplified)

Week 2: 3 people.
Week 4: 9 people.
Week 6: 27 people.
Week 8: 81 people.
Week 10: 243 people.
Week 12: 729 people.
Week 14: 2187 people.
Week 16: 6561 people.
Week 18: 19683 people.
Week 20: 59049 people.
Week 22: 177147 people.
Week 24: 531441 people.
Week 26: 1594329 people (after just half a year, starting from one person).
Week 28: 4782987 people.
Week 30: 14348961 people.
Week 32: 43046883 people.
Week 34: 129140649 people.
Week 36: 387421947 people.
Week 38: 1162265841 people.
Week 40: 3486797523 people. (This is pretty close to 40% of the world's current population, after just 40 weeks.)
Week 42: 10460392569 people. --- This is more people than are currently alive on Earth.

Keep in mind that this is a rate of transmission of only 2 people per infected person every two weeks. Because the disease is so mild in 80% of people, and because it's so widespread already, these numbers are likely to increase much faster.

Here are fairly current numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

100,000+ cases, of which about 45% still haven't recovered.

The incubation period is 2-14 days (but potentially up to 27 days). This means that cases may increase faster than tripling every two weeks. This all depends on the ability of countries to mobilize enforcement of emergency health measures, quarantines, etc.

So, no, I don't think 40-70% is exaggerated. Keep in mind that the reported numbers depend entirely on how much testing is actually going on. The United States has not been testing anywhere near enough, and yet cases have been found all over the country, on both coasts.
Here are the actual numbers so far:
From known confirmed cases (worldwide):

Week 1: 0 dead, 1 case

Week 2: 1 dead, 15 cases

Week 3: 2 dead, 62 cases

Week 4: 41 dead, 1287 cases.

Week 5: 362 dead, 17,200 cases

Week 6: 813 dead, 37,198 cases

Week 7: 1,665 dead, 68,500 cases

Week 8: 2,465 dead. 79,930 cases

Week 9: 2,989 dead, 87,642 cases

Week 10: 3,666 dead, 107,947 cases
Bear in mind, the US isn’t testing properly, and China has dramatically reduced its infection rate (at least reported). But the rest of the world’s rates are starting to increase.

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#67 Post by Hype » Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:15 am

As of this morning:
Coronavirus Cases:
111,381
view by country
Deaths:
3,882
Recovered:
62,661

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mockbee
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Re: Coronavirus

#68 Post by mockbee » Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:20 am

Hype wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:15 am
As of this morning:
Coronavirus Cases:
111,381
view by country
Deaths:
3,882
Recovered:
62,661
Don't you think the cases, in reality, is under-counted in an exponentially large capacity....?

It's all about the lack of tests, and the similarity to the common flu and the non-acute symptom cases, no?

I suppose the important figure is the confirmed cases vs. the recovered. But even then it's just the tip of the iceberg of real confirmed cases.....

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#69 Post by Hype » Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:19 am

Cases are absolutely going way under-reported in the United States. In countries that have socialized health insurance, people are far more likely to report these kinds of symptoms, and most of these countries are testing more actively than the United States is. This, by the way, is one reason why the current reported death rate is sitting at 6%, when the actual death rate is more like 3-4%. The United States has a president who openly says stupid things like "will the flu vaccine work for this?" and "I didn't know people died of the flu", neither of which have anything directly to do with COVID-19.

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Re: Coronavirus

#70 Post by mockbee » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:14 am

Hype wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:19 am
Cases are absolutely going way under-reported in the United States. In countries that have socialized health insurance, people are far more likely to report these kinds of symptoms, and most of these countries are testing more actively than the United States is. This, by the way, is one reason why the current reported death rate is sitting at 6%, when the actual death rate is more like 3-4%. The United States has a president who openly says stupid things like "will the flu vaccine work for this?" and "I didn't know people died of the flu", neither of which have anything directly to do with COVID-19.
What about asymptomatic or mild/moderate symptom cases, no one is reporting those, why would they ever be tested. I suppose Korea is doing more sweeping tests, probably way better statistical data.

Of course maybe that would not be a good indicator either, compared to typical flu mortality at ~1.5% because not everyone is being tested for flu in a typical year either...

Best indicator is probably any increase in hospital visits. Of course, more people are probably going to the hospital with typical (bad) flu symptoms because they are worried they will die.

:noclue:


Where is the evidence that this strain is significantly more severe than the common flu? I understand it could be a "bad" flu season, but do we have evidence that, for example, the nursing home in Seattle that got hit, there is never an instance in years past where 16 elderly people died of the same strain of the flu in succession at a facility? Well....... that does seem to be a lot. :neutral:
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/coron ... CL75367PU/

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#71 Post by Hype » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:45 am

This is from the end of February: Image

COVID-19 is more severe than the flu in terms of need for hospitalization and in terms of deaths. It’s also more severe for “mild” cases. It’s characterized by lung damage and pneumonia.

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Artemis
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Re: Coronavirus

#72 Post by Artemis » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:27 am

First death in Canada from COVID-19 confirmed in B.C. at a long-term care facility.


https://dailyhive.com/toronto/bc-health ... n-vyoCfsDQ
After British Columbia Health officials identified six new cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) Saturday morning, including two residents of a long-term care facility on Vancouver’s North Shore, BC’s provincial health officer Bonnie Henry said on Monday morning that one of those residents has now passed away as a result of the virus.

The news follows Henry’s announcement on Saturday, that a health care worker at the Lynn Valley Care Centre also tested positive as BC’s 21st case of COVID-19. She was identified as the province’s first case of community transmission earlier this week, meaning her illness was not tied to travel or direct contact with someone else known to have COVID-19.


According to BC’s pandemic response plan, COVID-19 has about a 1% mortality rate in generally health people. But for people with underlying heart conditions, respiratory issues, daibetes, hypertension, and cancer, the mortality increases to between 5 and 10%.

Henry also announced on Monday that five new cases have now been identified in the province, bringing the total number of cases in the province to 32.

More to come…

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Artemis
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Re: Coronavirus

#73 Post by Artemis » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:29 pm

Italy on total lock down now and Israel announced 14 day quarantine for all arrivals into the country. :scared:


Artemis wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:56 pm
27 cases of COVID-19 confirmed in Canada. No deaths reported yet.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/ ... ction.html
In a week, from Mar 2nd to today, we went from 27 to 72 confirmed cases.

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Re: Coronavirus

#74 Post by Hokahey » Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:20 pm

Hype wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:45 am
This is from the end of February: Image

COVID-19 is more severe than the flu in terms of need for hospitalization and in terms of deaths. It’s also more severe for “mild” cases. It’s characterized by lung damage and pneumonia.
None of this is knowable without knowing true infection numbers which we all agree are vastly under reported due to low symptom or asymptomatic cases.

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#75 Post by Hype » Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:21 am

Hokahey wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:20 pm
Hype wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:45 am
This is from the end of February: Image

COVID-19 is more severe than the flu in terms of need for hospitalization and in terms of deaths. It’s also more severe for “mild” cases. It’s characterized by lung damage and pneumonia.
None of this is knowable without knowing true infection numbers which we all agree are vastly under reported due to low symptom or asymptomatic cases.
I think we have to be careful not to mix up two different sets of numbers. The numbers that medical professionals like the hospitals, CDC, etc., are working with are either the actual documented cases (taken from testing), or modeled data from projections based on that data and on existing epidemiological data and modelling. These are distinct from the actual number of people infected. In some ways that latter number doesn't matter, because we can only use data. What does matter, of course, is how much testing is done, and how good we can make the modelling.

The slide above is from the end of February, and is based on modelling. It indicates what the hospitals expect during the peak of the disease, not even the totals. This modeling determines their preparation and their planned costs, so they want to be as accurate as possible. It has nothing to do with "not knowing true infection numbers" because of "asymptomatic cases". They factor this into the modeling because the are trying to get an accurate prediction of the burden on hospitals.

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