Coronavirus

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#451 Post by Hype » Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:43 pm

Coronavirus Cases:
1,009,699
view by country
Deaths:
52,855
Any bets for for long before we hit 10 million? I'm going to say by the end of April.

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mockbee
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Re: Coronavirus

#452 Post by mockbee » Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:54 pm

Hype wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:43 pm
Coronavirus Cases:
1,009,699
view by country
Deaths:
52,855
Any bets for for long before we hit 10 million? I'm going to say by the end of April.
I'm not deep into the statistical models but if you are including non-symptom/mild reveal cases, wouldnt you say we are there already.....?

Those million cases are only tested right? Not projections?
:noclue:

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#453 Post by Hype » Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:08 pm

mockbee wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:54 pm
Hype wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:43 pm
Coronavirus Cases:
1,009,699
view by country
Deaths:
52,855
Any bets for for long before we hit 10 million? I'm going to say by the end of April.
I'm not deep into the statistical models but if you are including non-symptom/mild reveal cases, wouldnt you say we are there already.....?

Those million cases are only tested right? Not projections?
:noclue:
Only tested. There's no point in talking about global untested cases because the variance between and within jurisdictions is too complicated. Modelling can deal with this in broad strokes with error margins. But one thing that's important about tested cases is that these are generally going to be people who were highest risk to begin with (because that's what the testing criteria were) and those displaying symptoms. Yes, we need to know in some sense roughly how many people are walking around asymptomatic and spreading it, and they do have some idea of that (it's apparently something like up to 50% of all infections). Some of the tested cases are asymptomatic people too.

A million people is like 0.001% of the world's population. But it's only been four months, and that R0 of 2.2-2.5 is brutal. Not measles brutal, but brutal because it's over double that of the flu and given how mild it is... basically whenever it hits an old age home, you'll have multiple deaths.

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Re: Coronavirus

#454 Post by creep » Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:39 pm

creep wrote:
Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:48 pm
i thought this was interesting. good thing i never go to church. :thumb:

Image
:noclue:

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Bandit72
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Re: Coronavirus

#455 Post by Bandit72 » Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:07 am

This is a grim watch...


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mockbee
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Re: Coronavirus

#456 Post by mockbee » Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:36 am

So it looks like CDC will "strongly urge" people to wear some sort of mask when outside in public.

I'm fine with that, I just don't like the politics of it all. I actually have (2) N95 masks, 1 used a couple times this past year and a new one because I do a lot of wood work/furniture building with sanding etc. I would be happy to give the new one to a medical professional, but don't really know how that would work/be worth meeting someone to give them one mask.
:noclue:

I did find this site, which is useful:
https://www.myoregon.gov/2020/03/19/med ... rplus-ppe/

Looks like a lot of states have places to drop off PPE.


And then if I just wear my used one, I know I will be judged for wearing it. Especially in Portland........people suck here that way, so righteous..... :essence:

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Artemis
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Re: Coronavirus

#457 Post by Artemis » Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:21 pm

In my province, Ontario, the projections for the number of deaths is 3000-15,000. By the end of April, 1,600.
An announcement was made today for more business closures, including construction sites that aren't considered essential. So, transportation projects will continue and homes that are nearing completion. More fines for people disobeying social distancing rules. The President and CEO of Public Health Ontario said the pandemic may last for 18 months to two years with a potential second wave of the virus.


Oh, and fuck Trump forever and ever! He's trying to stop 3M from sending N95 masks to Canada and other countries.Trudeau did immediately respond that there could be retaliations. For example, there are many nurses and other healthcare workers from Canada who cross the border in Detroit to work in the US. I'm sure Trump wouldn't want that to stop now.

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#458 Post by Hype » Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:33 pm

Artemis wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:21 pm
In my province, Ontario, the projections for the number of deaths is 3000-15,000. By the end of April, 1,600.
An announcement was made today for more business closures, including construction sites that aren't considered essential. So, transportation projects will continue and homes that are nearing completion. More fines for people disobeying social distancing rules. The President and CEO of Public Health Ontario said the pandemic may last for 18 months to two years with a potential second wave of the virus.


Oh, and fuck Trump forever and ever! He's trying to stop 3M from sending N95 masks to Canada and other countries.Trudeau did immediately respond that there could be retaliations. For example, there are many nurses and other healthcare workers from Canada who cross the border in Detroit to work in the US. I'm sure Trump wouldn't want that to stop now.
The end result of all of this just might be the end of the United States as a world power (see, e.g., https://www.businessinsider.com/us-econ ... ays-2019-1 ) and a trusted ally for the rest of the developed world. There's not much Canada can really do to prevent American isolationism. And we're stuck bearing the brunt of whatever disastrously stupid policies they set at a national level because our economy is tied so directly to the American one. (Not to mention we're a petro-state and oil is currently sitting at late-1990s prices...)

Canada, with the rest of the world, is in for a very, very rough decade. One thing we can say is that our banking sector is relatively stable, and at least we have a liberal government in power that *may* help push for the sort of social programming that will be an absolute necessity to get through this.

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Re: Coronavirus

#459 Post by Larry B. » Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:26 pm

Oh, and fuck Trump forever and ever! He's trying to stop 3M from sending N95 masks to Canada and other countries.Trudeau did immediately respond that there could be retaliations. For example, there are many nurses and other healthcare workers from Canada who cross the border in Detroit to work in the US. I'm sure Trump wouldn't want that to stop now.
Apparently, 3M said no.

It wasn't just masks that Trump didn't want 3M to send to Canada and Latin America, but respirators too.

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Re: Coronavirus

#460 Post by Hype » Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:34 pm

Larry B. wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:26 pm
Oh, and fuck Trump forever and ever! He's trying to stop 3M from sending N95 masks to Canada and other countries.Trudeau did immediately respond that there could be retaliations. For example, there are many nurses and other healthcare workers from Canada who cross the border in Detroit to work in the US. I'm sure Trump wouldn't want that to stop now.
Apparently, 3M said no.

It wasn't just masks that Trump didn't want 3M to send to Canada and Latin America, but respirators too.
The problem is that Trump's powers during this crisis are extraordinary. See: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... us/608083/

He may be able to compel American companies to do whatever he wants, even by (temporarily) nationalizing them.

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Re: Coronavirus

#461 Post by Larry B. » Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:44 pm

I really, really doubt he would attack corporations. They own him (and any president in a capitalist country). He’d rather let people die.

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#462 Post by Hype » Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:42 pm

Larry B. wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:44 pm
I really, really doubt he would attack corporations. They own him (and any president in a capitalist country). He’d rather let people die.
In this case, it looks like 3M wins because Canada is the source for the raw materials for the masks (but not the respirators?). But don't underestimate the degree to which this isn't business as usual. Corporations don't have as much power as national governments when there is no economy.

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Re: Coronavirus

#463 Post by Pandemonium » Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:46 pm

You are seeing the growing (US) government "commandeering" of major US corporations that was seen in WWII, which considering the circumstances and behavior of some noted major companies like GM, is frankly necessary right now. I also believe that a US company serves the US and it's citizens first in times of National crisis, the rest of the world comes second. The same I'd think of any company based in Canada, Mexico, the UK or where ever. The downside is when resources become scarce in one country or region, that's how wars start.

Also, for better or worse, we are definitely going to see a big pullback from the Globalism trend of the past quarter century. When the dust settles, a lot of countries are going to want to be more self-reliant and self contained to better prepare for the next major crisis.

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Re: Coronavirus

#464 Post by Larry B. » Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:33 pm

Hype wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:42 pm
Larry B. wrote:
Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:44 pm
I really, really doubt he would attack corporations. They own him (and any president in a capitalist country). He’d rather let people die.
In this case, it looks like 3M wins because Canada is the source for the raw materials for the masks (but not the respirators?). But don't underestimate the degree to which this isn't business as usual. Corporations don't have as much power as national governments when there is no economy.
In severely capitalists countries (like Chile and the US), governments don’t have much. Corporations have everyone on their payrolls. I understand that it’s most definitely NOT business as usual, but capitalist governments will shed a lot of working class blood before attacking corporations.

The government will ‘ask’ for things, maybe. And they might even ‘push’ for some things. But taking them over? I don’t know. I really doubt it.

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#465 Post by Hype » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:13 am

Yeah. That sounds about right. Things are more or less reasonable until there's a breaking point / crisis point, and then it's not clear what the reaction will be. Trump is oddly non-ideological in some ways. His recent talk of the number of uninsured people being "unfair" so maybe they should increase medicare/medicaid enrollment (i.e., create something closer to a universal public insurance scheme) is surprising, since it doesn't fit with anything else he's said (but it seems like it's a calculation based on the fact that his voter base is the most affected by this crisis, so throwing them a lifeline like this is a way to win the election...).

The nationalistic/"America First" rhetoric plays into this as well. Americans tend to be ignorant and blinkered when it comes to their reliance on the rest of the world. And it's easy to see why: The United States has for 100 years been really well-positioned to do things on its own, and provide aid to the rest of the world. But given modern supply-chains and interconnected economies, it's idiotic for them to try to restrict the actions of American multinational corporations. Still, they might try, because they're trying to make up for how poorly they've dealt with things up to this point.

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Re: Coronavirus

#466 Post by Hokahey » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:14 pm



Phil McCausland

3h ago / 10:47 AM CDT
New York has 10,841 new cases in one day, a record high
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Saturday the state has 10,841 new coronavirus cases since Friday, a record, bringing the total to 113,704.

The number of deaths since Friday is 640, which puts the total deaths from the virus in New York at 3,565.

The total number of people hospitalized is 15,905. But, Cuomo said, two-thirds of all people who have been hospitalized have been discharged.

The governor said the state is probably four to eight days from a peak in coronavirus cases and is doing as much as it can to prepare.

"In some ways, I want to get to that apex, get to the other side of that apex and slide down that mountain," the governor said. "On the other hand, we have to be ready for that fight and we have to handle that fight."
16K hospitalized so far in NY. 11K have been discharged. Hopefully 4-8 days until peak.

NY is roughly half of all US infections.

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Re: Coronavirus

#467 Post by Hype » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:23 pm

Hokahey wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:14 pm
NY is roughly half of all US infections.
Half of all confirmed infections. That's important, because NY recently ramped up their testing way more than most other US states. The other thing to consider is that this is going to hit the middle of the country *way* harder than NY. NY has world-class healthcare and loads of doctors and nurses. Rural areas with aging populations are going to be in a lot of trouble in a few weeks if governors and mayors don't get their acts together.

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Re: Coronavirus

#468 Post by Hokahey » Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:57 pm

Hype wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:23 pm
Hokahey wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:14 pm
NY is roughly half of all US infections.
Half of all confirmed infections. That's important, because NY recently ramped up their testing way more than most other US states. The other thing to consider is that this is going to hit the middle of the country *way* harder than NY. NY has world-class healthcare and loads of doctors and nurses. Rural areas with aging populations are going to be in a lot of trouble in a few weeks if governors and mayors don't get their acts together.
There is zero chance this hits the middle of the country harder than NY. It's impossible. You know better than that. Comparing NYC in terms of density and geography to almost any other city in America is apples to oranges. And there are wonderful medical centers and world class hospitals in mid America as well. Less density, better preparedness for the peak, and great hospitals.

Look at this link:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

These data projections are from the University of Washington.

Total Covid-19 deaths projected for the entire state of Missouri is 1,290 with no more than 30% of hospital beds utilized at peak.

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Matz
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Re: Coronavirus

#469 Post by Matz » Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:24 pm

I don't understand the whole "peaking thing". Why do people think its going to peak? You'd think it would be here as long as there are people to infect. As far as I know the Spanish flu didn't "peak", it was here for a year or something and died off only because everybody were either dead or had become immune to it.

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Re: Coronavirus

#470 Post by mockbee » Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:38 pm

Matz wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:24 pm
I don't understand the whole "peaking thing". Why do people think its going to peak? You'd think it would be here as long as there are people to infect. As far as I know the Spanish flu didn't "peak", it was here for a year or something and died off only because everybody were either dead or had become immune to it.

Yeah.....it'll be around a while relatively, but you answer your own question.
There will be a peak time of infections/deaths based on how quickly it spreads...then there will be fewer and fewer new cases.

And probably/likely pockets it never got to, and if it eventually did it wouldn't be a wave of infections.

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Re: Coronavirus

#471 Post by Larry B. » Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:28 pm

Matz wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:24 pm
I don't understand the whole "peaking thing". Why do people think its going to peak? You'd think it would be here as long as there are people to infect. As far as I know the Spanish flu didn't "peak", it was here for a year or something and died off only because everybody were either dead or had become immune to it.
I'd assume it could be explained like this: at some point, there should be so many people infected, that the rate at which they become 'healthy' (e.g., 2,000 per day) is higher than the rate at which non-infected people become infected (e.g., 1,400 per day). I've no idea about the mathematics or modelling for this shit, but that seems reasonable enough, doesn't it?

From the beginning, the most immediate goal has been to control the spread, because we just can't produce a vaccine quickly enough. Beyond that, it's up to each person to risk it or not, but if everyone got infected at the same time, loads of people would die due to medical equipment and personnel not being enough. But if the virus spreads slowly, it'd contribute towards the scenario I described in my paragraph above.
Hokahey wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:57 pm
Look at this link:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

These data projections are from the University of Washington.

Total Covid-19 deaths projected for the entire state of Missouri is 1,290 with no more than 30% of hospital beds utilized at peak.
A bit funny that these projections, you like. And you still failed to mention that per that projection, about 55% of all ICU beds in the state would be needed. And in that state, apparently there haven't been any orders to stay at home, to avoid traveling, etc. If there had been, instead of 1,290 deaths you could've easily be looking at around 300 or 400 deaths, if that. But apparently, that doesn't matter?

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Re: Coronavirus

#472 Post by Hokahey » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:32 pm

Larry B. wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:28 pm
Matz wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:24 pm
I don't understand the whole "peaking thing". Why do people think its going to peak? You'd think it would be here as long as there are people to infect. As far as I know the Spanish flu didn't "peak", it was here for a year or something and died off only because everybody were either dead or had become immune to it.
I'd assume it could be explained like this: at some point, there should be so many people infected, that the rate at which they become 'healthy' (e.g., 2,000 per day) is higher than the rate at which non-infected people become infected (e.g., 1,400 per day). I've no idea about the mathematics or modelling for this shit, but that seems reasonable enough, doesn't it?

From the beginning, the most immediate goal has been to control the spread, because we just can't produce a vaccine quickly enough. Beyond that, it's up to each person to risk it or not, but if everyone got infected at the same time, loads of people would die due to medical equipment and personnel not being enough. But if the virus spreads slowly, it'd contribute towards the scenario I described in my paragraph above.
Hokahey wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:57 pm
Look at this link:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

These data projections are from the University of Washington.

Total Covid-19 deaths projected for the entire state of Missouri is 1,290 with no more than 30% of hospital beds utilized at peak.
A bit funny that these projections, you like. And you still failed to mention that per that projection, about 55% of all ICU beds in the state would be needed. And in that state, apparently there haven't been any orders to stay at home, to avoid traveling, etc. If there had been, instead of 1,290 deaths you could've easily be looking at around 300 or 400 deaths, if that. But apparently, that doesn't matter?
The state has now issued a blanket stay at home order, but the major metropolitan areas have had them for some time. People outside of the US don't tend to understand how state/city/county levels of law and authority work. I've been under lockdown for weeks now in the biggest city in Missouri with an order lasting until at least 4/22. We good.

And why are you going on about 55% of ICU beds needed? That's a wonderful number considering we've been told every area would see capacity overwhelmed. If we hit (roughly) half utilization of resources during this I think we'll be thrilled.

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Re: Coronavirus

#473 Post by Matz » Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:06 am

This is written by the Editor in chief of a big newspaper here. It's the first time I've heard this point of view. Maybe we, and many other countries, are handling this the wrong way completely
Right now, I think many people look astonished at Sweden. The country of prohibition is open, the children go to school, while we, the Latinos of Scandinavia, the wild, open and naughty, are completely shut down. In Malmö they drink cafe latte in the sun on Stortorget, while in Copenhagen we sneak around each other in large circles for fear of being infected.

Both Sweden and Denmark are led by social democrats, but they obviously look quite differently at how we best get through the corona crisis.

The death stall in Sweden is approx. twice as high as in Denmark. This could indicate that Mette Frederiksen is the wisest. But that would be a hasty conclusion.

We must all have corona at some point and therefore nothing is left until we have all been through the disease or a vaccine has been found. In Sweden, the corona thus rages harder than in Denmark. Can one thus conclude that they come through faster? Maybe maybe not.

In fact, the score can only be settled in a few years. And included in that calculation is how the economy has developed in the meantime. Right now we have almost 50,000 new unemployed with the coronan closure. We have seen entire industries laid waste and a beginning wave of bankruptcies that even the government's well-meaning support packages cannot prevent.

The negative spiral is underway. Will it stop once we re-open? We don't know that either.

In Sweden, society is less affected, and the frightening scenario for me is that in two years the Swedes prove to have slipped through the corona crisis in health relatively graciously and without having done lasting damage to the economy, while we are hopelessly lagging behind because of the total stop .

No doubt that we Danes are with Mette Frederiksen right now. She has shown acting power. But was it too much?

There are clear cracks in the arguments for the rock hard line, where all the forces are focused on fighting the corona.

The hospitals are not overloaded. Right now, personnel are being sent home, which seems absurd because thousands of operations have been canceled. Everything is switched to corona epidemic, but the patients failed.

And the economy has been sent out on the edge of the abyss. As I wrote last week: I hope the hell the government knows what they are doing - and is smarter than the Swedes.

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Re: Coronavirus

#474 Post by Mescal » Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:09 am

Matz wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:06 am
This is written by the Editor in chief of a big newspaper here. It's the first time I've heard this point of view. Maybe we, and many other countries, are handling this the wrong way completely
Right now, I think many people look astonished at Sweden. The country of prohibition is open, the children go to school, while we, the Latinos of Scandinavia, the wild, open and naughty, are completely shut down. In Malmö they drink cafe latte in the sun on Stortorget, while in Copenhagen we sneak around each other in large circles for fear of being infected.

Both Sweden and Denmark are led by social democrats, but they obviously look quite differently at how we best get through the corona crisis.

The death stall in Sweden is approx. twice as high as in Denmark. This could indicate that Mette Frederiksen is the wisest. But that would be a hasty conclusion.

We must all have corona at some point and therefore nothing is left until we have all been through the disease or a vaccine has been found. In Sweden, the corona thus rages harder than in Denmark. Can one thus conclude that they come through faster? Maybe maybe not.

In fact, the score can only be settled in a few years. And included in that calculation is how the economy has developed in the meantime. Right now we have almost 50,000 new unemployed with the coronan closure. We have seen entire industries laid waste and a beginning wave of bankruptcies that even the government's well-meaning support packages cannot prevent.

The negative spiral is underway. Will it stop once we re-open? We don't know that either.

In Sweden, society is less affected, and the frightening scenario for me is that in two years the Swedes prove to have slipped through the corona crisis in health relatively graciously and without having done lasting damage to the economy, while we are hopelessly lagging behind because of the total stop .

No doubt that we Danes are with Mette Frederiksen right now. She has shown acting power. But was it too much?

There are clear cracks in the arguments for the rock hard line, where all the forces are focused on fighting the corona.

The hospitals are not overloaded. Right now, personnel are being sent home, which seems absurd because thousands of operations have been canceled. Everything is switched to corona epidemic, but the patients failed.

And the economy has been sent out on the edge of the abyss. As I wrote last week: I hope the hell the government knows what they are doing - and is smarter than the Swedes.
Yes, this. This is pretty much my point of view.

I think we should have controlled the instream a bit better, and not lock everything down.

Like, everyone over 50 should stay home and be careful but other than that life goes on ....

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Re: Coronavirus

#475 Post by mockbee » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:15 am

This is certainly strange times.......

Can't decide whether the world is living out a King or Kafka novel, my impressions are a sprinkle of King and a whollop of Kakfa, while I'm living out my own personal Walden.....

:noclue:

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