Coronavirus

[Matz]

perhaps I'm too focused on ventilators. We have 970 of them and I think 110 are in use right now. But I'd be surprised if we have a shortage of ICU's in general, but who knows. I'll watch the news in 10 minutes, if we're going down the drain tomorrow I' think they'll let us know

[Matz]

I researched a bit and it turns out that we normally have relatively few ICU's but that we're able to turn regular beds into ICU's fast if need be so i.e. we'll have plenty as long as we can control the curve when we start opening the country.

No crisis right now that's for sure

[Hype]

I researched a bit and it turns out that we normally have relatively few ICU's but that we're able to turn regular beds into ICU's fast if need be so i.e. we'll have plenty as long as we can control the curve when we start opening the country.

No crisis right now that's for sure

Well, that’s good. For context, your country has a million fewer people than the Greater Toronto Area. :P

Also, when exactly do you think they’ll “start opening the country”?

As far as I can tell most places are looking at closures of some kind and social distancing for at least 2-3 months if not more.

[Matz]

"opening the country", not really the right way to put it, is it? Anyway, you seem to get what I mean. Some will have their freedom very soon, in about a week, kids from the age 0 to 7 or something will start going to school and kindergarten and such if the school e.g is able to live up to certain requirements (in the class rooms the kids must be two meters apart and so forth).

As you can probably imagine a lot of parents are not very happy about this.

We're ahead when it comes to this because we started the quarantine before most countries and because our hospitals are no where near pushed to the max right now I guess

[Hype]

"opening the country", not really the right way to put it, is it? Anyway, you seem to get what I mean. Some will have their freedom very soon, in about a week, kids from the age 0 to 7 or something will start going to school and kindergarten and such if the school e.g is able to live up to certain requirements (in the class rooms the kids must be two meters apart and so forth).

As you can probably imagine a lot of parents are not very happy about this.

We're ahead when it comes to this because we started the quarantine before most countries and because our hospitals are no where near pushed to the max right now I guess

Hmm. Good luck keeping primary school-aged children 2 meters apart.

[mockbee]

We got a bunch of cages in Texas that Trump doesn't seem to be using anymore...


But, let me forewarn you.. Politically it will be a BIG loser......

[Matz]

yeah, somewhere in between is probably better, tie 'em up or something

[Hype]

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article

The R0 values we estimated have important implications for predicting the effects of pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions. For example, the threshold for combined vaccine efficacy and herd immunity needed for disease extinction is calculated as 1 – 1/R0. At R0 = 2.2, this threshold is only 55%. But at R0 = 5.7, this threshold rises to 82% (i.e., >82% of the population has to be immune, through either vaccination or prior infection, to achieve herd immunity to stop transmission).

We then evaluated the effectiveness for nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as contact tracing, quarantine, and social distancing, by using the framework by Lipsitch et al. (19) (Appendix 2). We extended the framework to consider a fraction of transmission occurring from infected persons who would not be identified by surveillance and can transmit effectively (15). This fraction is determined by the fraction of actual asymptomatic persons and the extent of surveillance efforts to identify these persons and persons with mild-to-moderate symptoms. Results show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic persons can be effective when the fraction of unidentified persons is low. However, when 20% of transmission is driven by unidentified infected persons, high levels of social distancing efforts will be needed to contain the virus (Figure 6), highlighting the importance of early and effective surveillance, contact tracing, and quarantine. Future field, laboratory, and modeling studies aimed to address the unknowns, such as the fraction of asymptomatic persons, the extent of their transmissibility depending on symptom severity, the time when persons become infectious, and the existence of superspreaders are needed to accurately predict the impact of various control strategies (20).

We found R0 is likely to be 5.7 given our current state of knowledge, with a broad 95% CI (3.8–8.9). Among many factors, the lack of awareness of this new pathogen and the Lunar New Year travel and gathering in early and mid-January 2020 might or might not play a role in the high R0. A recent study based on structural analysis of the virus particles suggests SARS-CoV-2 has a much higher affinity to the receptor needed for cell entry than the 2003 SARS virus (21), providing a molecular basis for the high infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2.

How contagious SARS-CoV-2 is in other countries remains to be seen. Given the rapid rate of spread as seen in current outbreaks in Europe, we need to be aware of the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 once it establishes sustained human-to-human transmission in a new population (20). Our results suggest that a combination of control measures, including early and active surveillance, quarantine, and especially strong social distancing efforts, are needed to slow down or stop the spread of the virus. If these measures are not implemented early and strongly, the virus has the potential to spread rapidly and infect a large fraction of the population, overwhelming healthcare systems. Fortunately, the decline in newly confirmed cases in China and South Korea in March 2020 and the stably low incidences in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore strongly suggest that the spread of the virus can be contained with early and appropriate measures.

[clickie]

The New York coverage is a little too strong, I mean come on this is going on everywhere

[clickie]

It's not all about you New York

[kv]

[Larry B.]

Way past that. We’re talking Perry Farrell levels of “what?!”

[Artemis]

Justin Trudeau said "moistly" yesterday and immediately regretted it.

[Hype]

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1727839/

A good visualization for why hospitals are so concerned. They're deferring all non-emergency surgery and trying to avoid bringing existing patients anywhere near the hospitals unless absolutely necessary. Why? Because holy shit... COVID-19 just overtook accidents, cancer and heart disease as the killer of the most Americans per day.

[SR]

The insanity of applications for CARES/PPP and other SBA loans is a bit overwhelming. In a boom year the SBA processes 50 billion; they are trying for the same in a few days with antiquated equipment, old employees, etc.

My industry is devastated.

Since nothing like this has ever been seen, the outlier ripple effects are still unknown.

[SR]

Btw, mine were in last Friday

[mockbee]

[Hokahey]

https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-study- ... 9/32073873

Soooo what the hell is happening in California? Around 500 deaths compared to nearly 8,000 in New York. California is twice as populated. California is the largest hub for Chinese travel.

What other conclusion can be drawn other than the virus being all over the state in December and January was the reason California noted a worse than normal flu season around that time and herd immunity was developed?

I'm honestly asking. Any other theories? This is bizarre. And I'm confused why this isn't a bigger story.

[SR]

So little news on Germany as well. 80 million population and 100,000 cases

[Matz]

what about New Zealand, they have eliminated it, almost. Same with Singapore

https://www.axios.com/new-zealand-lockd ... 9d88e.html

[SR]

Dunno what I don't know. What I do know is we are still learning heroic amounts about this and having trouble disseminating the data. A significant amount of time will go by before we have a decent understanding of wtf just happened. And that's just the science. Measuring the damage in other sectors, financial and otherwise will also take time. In the meantime, many will be suffering.

[Larry B.]

I’ll be in lockdown until at least the 20th, apparently.

[kv]

https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-study- ... 9/32073873

Soooo what the hell is happening in California? Around 500 deaths compared to nearly 8,000 in New York. California is twice as populated. California is the largest hub for Chinese travel.

What other conclusion can be drawn other than the virus being all over the state in December and January was the reason California noted a worse than normal flu season around that time and herd immunity was developed?

I'm honestly asking. Any other theories? This is bizarre. And I'm confused why this isn't a bigger story.

Most people here are in single family homes or buildings under 2-3 stories...and this city is giant it's huge...we aren't all on top of each other like New York...most people drive their own car...instead of walking the packed NY sidewalks....or subways, ferries, taxis...a lot of places to touch...most in NY are in large buildings using elevators (how many people have pushed those buttons)..or flights of stairs sharing rails...also most apartments are on the tiny side...less room to stay away from people you live with if you do get sick....street carts in NY Prob spread it like crazy too...

As for your thought of the virus being here in December....I had the same thought...sooo many were sick with a bad cough including every single person we had for Xmas....but I've tried researching this possibility...and I keep seeing docs say nope wasn't here then and while a lot of people had something around Xmas.....there weren't dead bodies or case load at the hospitals to back it being covid...signs point to a diff virus...but fuck I hope it wasnt I hope everyone at Xmas is now safe...but it looks to be a pipe dream

[Hype]

https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-study- ... 9/32073873

Soooo what the hell is happening in California? Around 500 deaths compared to nearly 8,000 in New York. California is twice as populated. California is the largest hub for Chinese travel.

What other conclusion can be drawn other than the virus being all over the state in December and January was the reason California noted a worse than normal flu season around that time and herd immunity was developed?

I'm honestly asking. Any other theories? This is bizarre. And I'm confused why this isn't a bigger story.

Most people here are in single family homes or buildings under 2-3 stories...and this city is giant it's huge...we aren't all on top of each other like New York...most people drive their own car...instead of walking the packed NY sidewalks....or subways, ferries, taxis...a lot of places to touch...most in NY are in large buildings using elevators (how many people have pushed those buttons)..or flights of stairs sharing rails...also most apartments are on the tiny side...less room to stay away from people you live with if you do get sick....street carts in NY Prob spread it like crazy too...

As for your thought of the virus being here in December....I had the same thought...sooo many were sick with a bad cough including every single person we had for Xmas....but I've tried researching this possibility...and I keep seeing docs say nope wasn't here then and while a lot of people had something around Xmas.....there weren't dead bodies or case load at the hospitals to back it being covid...signs point to a diff virus...but fuck I hope it wasnt I hope everyone at Xmas is now safe...but it looks to be a pipe dream

LA is way more dense than NY. Driving, not using public transit as much, might partially explain it. I've seen a bunch of articles arguing that probably they just had it way earlier than anyone thought and somehow it's not hitting the old-age homes as hard for some reason.

If they could get on top of the antibody blood-testing, they might figure it out.

[kv]

I def see articles saying we had it in dec..but every doctor I find on the subject is saying where are the dead then? where is the pneumonia caseload? Just gonna have to wait...