Coronavirus
Re: Coronavirus
People are panic buying over here. You can't get hand sanitizer anywhere. Evern water and toilet roll (?) stocks are low in the supermarkets. I just find it a bit weird that people have suddenly decided to wash their hands now a new virus has appeared.
Re: Coronavirus
We're animals. People are being ultra-superstitious out of fear, and this is, counterintuitively, endangering the people who will likely suffer the most from this (the elderly and those with already suppressed immune systems -- everyone with rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, HIV, a transplanted organ, etc).
In the 17th century, there were periods of plague resurgence where cities were quarantined and many people died. The only way to escape it back then was to head out to the countryside and self-isolate. Despite modern hygiene practices existing, because there is no vaccine and no good treatment, this is probably the only way to guarantee you don't catch it now. Hand-washing and avoiding touching mucous membranes (your face!) is just what you should be doing anyway.
It's estimated that 40-70% of the world is going to catch this, and 80% of those will be mild or even asymptomatic -- corona-viruses cause 30% of all colds (rhinoviruses cause the other 70%). But for the other 20%, most of whom will be over 60, there will be pneumonia and bacterial infections and death for upwards of 15% of them, and for the other 85%, hospitalization, and a long recovery.
In the 17th century, there were periods of plague resurgence where cities were quarantined and many people died. The only way to escape it back then was to head out to the countryside and self-isolate. Despite modern hygiene practices existing, because there is no vaccine and no good treatment, this is probably the only way to guarantee you don't catch it now. Hand-washing and avoiding touching mucous membranes (your face!) is just what you should be doing anyway.
It's estimated that 40-70% of the world is going to catch this, and 80% of those will be mild or even asymptomatic -- corona-viruses cause 30% of all colds (rhinoviruses cause the other 70%). But for the other 20%, most of whom will be over 60, there will be pneumonia and bacterial infections and death for upwards of 15% of them, and for the other 85%, hospitalization, and a long recovery.
Re: Coronavirus
Nope. You get slapped with the bill. If you have health insurance through employer you'll have to drain your deductable first and most likely the quarantine will be "out if network"...usually doubling the deductable. So you're out $4-8,000 if you have a two week mandatory quarantine with pretty good insurance. Totally screwed without insurance. 2 week stay would cost $80,000-100,000 total. You could talk them down a bit, but goodbye to a year of your life on hold with insurers. That is the case at the moment....even if insurers say otherwise. No fed help yet.
I've had to go through that scenario twice in my life now with other medical conditions.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytime ... s.amp.html
Re: Coronavirus
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4860 ... pplemental
...
Gaetz initially maintained that he was within his rights to wear the device on the House floor despite the sergeant-at-arms requesting that he remove it in the chamber.
"There are provisions in the House rules that permit medically necessary headgear," Gaetz said after walking off the floor.
...
During an animated conversation with Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Arizona Democrat informed Gaetz he was wearing the mask incorrectly.
"Look, bipartisanship," Gallego said of his decision to help his GOP colleague.
"Gallego told me how. He knows how because he's a Marine," Gaetz said, confirming he had since adjusted the device. "He showed me how you wear it correctly."
Rep. Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.) at one point jokingly sat next to Gaetz and covered his air vent.
...
Re: Coronavirus
chaos wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:48 pmhttps://thehill.com/homenews/house/4860 ... pplemental
...
Gaetz initially maintained that he was within his rights to wear the device on the House floor despite the sergeant-at-arms requesting that he remove it in the chamber.
"There are provisions in the House rules that permit medically necessary headgear," Gaetz said after walking off the floor.
...
During an animated conversation with Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Arizona Democrat informed Gaetz he was wearing the mask incorrectly.
"Look, bipartisanship," Gallego said of his decision to help his GOP colleague.
"Gallego told me how. He knows how because he's a Marine," Gaetz said, confirming he had since adjusted the device. "He showed me how you wear it correctly."
Rep. Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.) at one point jokingly sat next to Gaetz and covered his air vent.
...
Oh man. Can't wait to see the late shows take on this.....
Re: Coronavirus
I work a government (city) job now so I am lucky to get 12 sick days a year and great health benefits so I should be covered somewhat but I work in a high risk area where the virus could be spread.Artemis wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:09 amWhat are your employers doing about Coronavirus? Are they encouraging people to stay home if they're sick? Is your employer increasing cleaning services to disinfect surfaces, provide hand sanitizer, etc?
What about sick days? Do you have any? Paid or unpaid?
Work from home option?
What if you're in quarantine? Is there compensation av available?
The advice here, and elsewhere, I assume, is to stay home if you're sick. Easier said than done, I think. Many people don't have paid sick days if they're not full-time employees or or are self-employed or contract employees. In the US, many still don't have medical coverage and won't see a doctor. How can they confirm if they have COVID-19??
My previous job I got 3 sick days a year and a 5K deducible for health insurance. That would have bee a problem.
Re: Coronavirus
What is the time frame for that 40-70%? If it's this year, that seems grossly over exaggerated.Hype wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:45 amWe're animals. People are being ultra-superstitious out of fear, and this is, counterintuitively, endangering the people who will likely suffer the most from this (the elderly and those with already suppressed immune systems -- everyone with rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, HIV, a transplanted organ, etc).
In the 17th century, there were periods of plague resurgence where cities were quarantined and many people died. The only way to escape it back then was to head out to the countryside and self-isolate. Despite modern hygiene practices existing, because there is no vaccine and no good treatment, this is probably the only way to guarantee you don't catch it now. Hand-washing and avoiding touching mucous membranes (your face!) is just what you should be doing anyway.
It's estimated that 40-70% of the world is going to catch this, and 80% of those will be mild or even asymptomatic -- corona-viruses cause 30% of all colds (rhinoviruses cause the other 70%). But for the other 20%, most of whom will be over 60, there will be pneumonia and bacterial infections and death for upwards of 15% of them, and for the other 85%, hospitalization, and a long recovery.
Re: Coronavirus
I wouldnt say a year is exaggerated at all....Hokahey wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:10 pmWhat is the time frame for that 40-70%? If it's this year, that seems grossly over exaggerated.
It's estimated that 40-70% of the world is going to catch this, and 80% of those will be mild or even asymptomatic -- corona-viruses cause 30% of all colds (rhinoviruses cause the other 70%). But for the other 20%, most of whom will be over 60, there will be pneumonia and bacterial infections and death for upwards of 15% of them, and for the other 85%, hospitalization, and a long recovery.
I probably already had/have it.......the Oregon case was literally where I was last week.
A 1,000,000+ people on the west coast probably already have/had it. It started here almost a month ago based on their forensic findings to date.
We are sooooo behind on the science....
Re: Coronavirus
Dont want anyone to die or get sick or go into financial ruin.....
but.................wow.
https://nyti.ms/2POkl6L
Re: Coronavirus
You can get some cracking holiday deals at the moment. I heard on the radio one 5* hotel in Venice was offering 3 nights plus Flights for like £350 (was normally like £179 per night). Some cruise ships are offering half price cruises too.
The government over here have basically said today it's going to get a shit loads worse before it gets better. There was even some ridiculous story yesterday about streaming funerals online. Sounds like FUN.
The government over here have basically said today it's going to get a shit loads worse before it gets better. There was even some ridiculous story yesterday about streaming funerals online. Sounds like FUN.
Re: Coronavirus
So, not to single you out, Hoka, but that's a great example of how humans are not great at statistical reasoning. The R0 factor for COVID-19 is high enough, and the severity of the disease among most people is so mild, that 40-70% is not exaggerated. It's already in more than 95 countries (it was 77 countries a day or two ago).mockbee wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:11 pmI wouldnt say a year is exaggerated at all....Hokahey wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:10 pmWhat is the time frame for that 40-70%? If it's this year, that seems grossly over exaggerated.
It's estimated that 40-70% of the world is going to catch this, and 80% of those will be mild or even asymptomatic -- corona-viruses cause 30% of all colds (rhinoviruses cause the other 70%). But for the other 20%, most of whom will be over 60, there will be pneumonia and bacterial infections and death for upwards of 15% of them, and for the other 85%, hospitalization, and a long recovery.
I probably already had/have it.......the Oregon case was literally where I was last week.
A 1,000,000+ people on the west coast probably already have/had it. It started here almost a month ago based on their forensic findings to date.
We are sooooo behind on the science....
Consider how numbers double. Start with one person with a disease, and assume that each person will tend to spread it to about two other people (COVID-19 seems to have a more infectious rate than that, but two is easier to understand). Now take into account that symptoms tend to be observed between 1 and 2 weeks. Let's go with 2 weeks. That means we can count the increased numbers fairly accurately every two weeks, or 26 times in a year. So, how many people would get it after 26 two-week intervals, starting from one person at a rate of 2 people catching it per previous person infected? (which, again, is way oversimplified)
Week 2: 3 people.
Week 4: 9 people.
Week 6: 27 people.
Week 8: 81 people.
Week 10: 243 people.
Week 12: 729 people.
Week 14: 2187 people.
Week 16: 6561 people.
Week 18: 19683 people.
Week 20: 59049 people.
Week 22: 177147 people.
Week 24: 531441 people.
Week 26: 1594329 people (after just half a year, starting from one person).
Week 28: 4782987 people.
Week 30: 14348961 people.
Week 32: 43046883 people.
Week 34: 129140649 people.
Week 36: 387421947 people.
Week 38: 1162265841 people.
Week 40: 3486797523 people. (This is pretty close to 40% of the world's current population, after just 40 weeks.)
Week 42: 10460392569 people. --- This is more people than are currently alive on Earth.
Keep in mind that this is a rate of transmission of only 2 people per infected person every two weeks. Because the disease is so mild in 80% of people, and because it's so widespread already, these numbers are likely to increase much faster.
Here are fairly current numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
100,000+ cases, of which about 45% still haven't recovered.
The incubation period is 2-14 days (but potentially up to 27 days). This means that cases may increase faster than tripling every two weeks. This all depends on the ability of countries to mobilize enforcement of emergency health measures, quarantines, etc.
So, no, I don't think 40-70% is exaggerated. Keep in mind that the reported numbers depend entirely on how much testing is actually going on. The United States has not been testing anywhere near enough, and yet cases have been found all over the country, on both coasts.
Re: Coronavirus
I do understand statistical reasoning.Hype wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:54 amSo, not to single you out, Hoka, but that's a great example of how humans are not great at statistical reasoning. The R0 factor for COVID-19 is high enough, and the severity of the disease among most people is so mild, that 40-70% is not exaggerated. It's already in more than 95 countries (it was 77 countries a day or two ago).mockbee wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:11 pmI wouldnt say a year is exaggerated at all....Hokahey wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:10 pmWhat is the time frame for that 40-70%? If it's this year, that seems grossly over exaggerated.
It's estimated that 40-70% of the world is going to catch this, and 80% of those will be mild or even asymptomatic -- corona-viruses cause 30% of all colds (rhinoviruses cause the other 70%). But for the other 20%, most of whom will be over 60, there will be pneumonia and bacterial infections and death for upwards of 15% of them, and for the other 85%, hospitalization, and a long recovery.
I probably already had/have it.......the Oregon case was literally where I was last week.
A 1,000,000+ people on the west coast probably already have/had it. It started here almost a month ago based on their forensic findings to date.
We are sooooo behind on the science....
Consider how numbers double. Start with one person with a disease, and assume that each person will tend to spread it to about two other people (COVID-19 seems to have a more infectious rate than that, but two is easier to understand). Now take into account that symptoms tend to be observed between 1 and 2 weeks. Let's go with 2 weeks. That means we can count the increased numbers fairly accurately every two weeks, or 26 times in a year. So, how many people would get it after 26 two-week intervals, starting from one person at a rate of 2 people catching it per previous person infected? (which, again, is way oversimplified)
Week 2: 3 people.
Week 4: 9 people.
Week 6: 27 people.
Week 8: 81 people.
Week 10: 243 people.
Week 12: 729 people.
Week 14: 2187 people.
Week 16: 6561 people.
Week 18: 19683 people.
Week 20: 59049 people.
Week 22: 177147 people.
Week 24: 531441 people.
Week 26: 1594329 people (after just half a year, starting from one person).
Week 28: 4782987 people.
Week 30: 14348961 people.
Week 32: 43046883 people.
Week 34: 129140649 people.
Week 36: 387421947 people.
Week 38: 1162265841 people.
Week 40: 3486797523 people. (This is pretty close to 40% of the world's current population, after just 40 weeks.)
Week 42: 10460392569 people. --- This is more people than are currently alive on Earth.
Keep in mind that this is a rate of transmission of only 2 people per infected person every two weeks. Because the disease is so mild in 80% of people, and because it's so widespread already, these numbers are likely to increase much faster.
Here are fairly current numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
100,000+ cases, of which about 45% still haven't recovered.
The incubation period is 2-14 days (but potentially up to 27 days). This means that cases may increase faster than tripling every two weeks. This all depends on the ability of countries to mobilize enforcement of emergency health measures, quarantines, etc.
So, no, I don't think 40-70% is exaggerated. Keep in mind that the reported numbers depend entirely on how much testing is actually going on. The United States has not been testing anywhere near enough, and yet cases have been found all over the country, on both coasts.
But this assumes no disruption in the spread, no relief from warmer weather (debatable), etc.
Will 40 to 70% of people have a this Coronavirus eventually? Yes. That's without question. I suspect it will be another seasonal virus that has to be considered on an annual basis.
I was only saying that I do not believe that number would be hit in 2020 by any means..
Re: Coronavirus
There are already over 100,000 reported cases, and we're only about 10 weeks in.
Italy has hundreds of deaths and has shut down all schools.
Your scepticism about the rate of spread is still unwarranted, given what experts already know. Take a look at just one recent medical article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lang ... 7/fulltext
Again,
Based on R0 of 2.2, the numbers I give above are pretty accurate. Without effective containment measures, we will hit 40% of the world infected within 40 weeks.
There have been some years of particularly bad flu where about a quarter of the world was infected. The flu has an R0 of just above half of COVID-19, and we have a vaccine for the flu, so again, that suggests these numbers aren't exaggerated.
Italy has hundreds of deaths and has shut down all schools.
Your scepticism about the rate of spread is still unwarranted, given what experts already know. Take a look at just one recent medical article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lang ... 7/fulltext
Again,
The R0 number doesn't ignore "disruption to the spread", it takes it into account.To estimate how easily a virus spreads, scientists calculate its "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). R0 predicts the number of people who can catch a given bug from a single infected person, Live Science previously reported. Currently, the R0 for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease COVID-19, is estimated at about 2.2, meaning a single infected person will infect about 2.2 others, on average. By comparison, the flu has an R0 of 1.3.
Based on R0 of 2.2, the numbers I give above are pretty accurate. Without effective containment measures, we will hit 40% of the world infected within 40 weeks.
There have been some years of particularly bad flu where about a quarter of the world was infected. The flu has an R0 of just above half of COVID-19, and we have a vaccine for the flu, so again, that suggests these numbers aren't exaggerated.
Re: Coronavirus
SXSW 2020 CXLD!
https://www.sxsw.com/2020-event-update/
https://www.sxsw.com/2020-event-update/
March 6, 2020: City of Austin Cancels SXSW March Events
The City of Austin has cancelled the March dates for SXSW and SXSW EDU. SXSW will faithfully follow the City’s directions.
We are devastated to share this news with you. “The show must go on” is in our DNA, and this is the first time in 34 years that the March event will not take place. We are now working through the ramifications of this unprecedented situation.
As recently as Wednesday, Austin Public Health stated that “there’s no evidence that closing SXSW or any other gatherings will make the community safer.” However, this situation evolved rapidly, and we honor and respect the City of Austin’s decision. We are committed to do our part to help protect our staff, attendees, and fellow Austinites.
We are exploring options to reschedule the event and are working to provide a virtual SXSW online experience as soon as possible for 2020 participants, starting with SXSW EDU. For our registrants, clients, and participants we will be in touch as soon as possible and will publish an FAQ.
We understand the gravity of the situation for all the creatives who utilize SXSW to accelerate their careers; for the global businesses; and for Austin and the hundreds of small businesses – venues, theatres, vendors, production companies, service industry staff, and other partners that rely so heavily on the increased business that SXSW attracts.
We will continue to work hard to bring you the unique events you love. Though it’s true that our March 2020 event will no longer take place in the way that we intended, we continue to strive toward our purpose – helping creative people achieve their goals.
Re: Coronavirus
There have been some moronic individuals in New Zealand and other places, knowingly leaving quarantine while carrying the disease. The American response to it has been disastrous. It looks like Mike Pence is being set up on purpose to take the heat off Trump, and make it so that Trump doesn't actually have to do anything. He can just be disappointed that the "good job" Pence did wasn't good enough.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world is starting to notice that the death rate in the US is now 5%, which is higher than it should be -- because of the lack of testing. Testing and containment are the only measures that will actually stop this from getting much, much worse. So, it looks like a lot more people are going to die. Nearly 50 more Italians are reported dead just today, with nearly 500 in critical condition. This is going to overwhelm so many hospitals that people are going to die of other things, too.
Panic isn't necessary, but some sort of concern and understanding and precaution would be wise.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world is starting to notice that the death rate in the US is now 5%, which is higher than it should be -- because of the lack of testing. Testing and containment are the only measures that will actually stop this from getting much, much worse. So, it looks like a lot more people are going to die. Nearly 50 more Italians are reported dead just today, with nearly 500 in critical condition. This is going to overwhelm so many hospitals that people are going to die of other things, too.
Panic isn't necessary, but some sort of concern and understanding and precaution would be wise.
Re: Coronavirus
In Chile, our dictatorship's fail-proof measure was to have every Chilean coming from Italy, China and a few other countries sign a sworn statement saying they haven't had any flu-like symptoms. That will show that pesky virus!
- nausearockpig
- Posts: 3904
- Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:03 pm
Re: Coronavirus
Can someone send me a pack of dunny paper? All of our shops are out.
Re: Coronavirus
What the hell is dunny paper?nausearockpig wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:19 pmCan someone send me a pack of dunny paper? All of our shops are out.
When I was in wilderness survival class in college
, it was suggested to use leaves (of a certain variety - stay away from leaves of three!)....
.......or, seriously... rocks. The smooth kind!
Reusable, too!
Good luck!
Re: Coronavirus
I just bought 3 packages for $2.99(CAD) ($3.35AUD) each on special.nausearockpig wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:19 pmCan someone send me a pack of dunny paper? All of our shops are out.
If you want to pay for shipping, I'll send you some.
Re: Coronavirus
Artemis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:20 amI just bought 3 packages for $2.99(CAD) ($3.35AUD) each on special.nausearockpig wrote: ↑Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:19 pmCan someone send me a pack of dunny paper? All of our shops are out.
If you want to pay for shipping, I'll send you some.
Re: Coronavirus
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatl ... le/504098/SCIENCE
Are Wet Wipes Wrecking the World's Sewers?
The battle over what it means to be “flushable”
Re: Coronavirus
why would you assume i flush them? i am more responsible than that.i just put them in a plastic bag and bring them in the car and throw them out the window.
most modern wastewater plants screen out baby wipes, syringes, tampons and anything else that gets flushed. they then go to the landfill. putting grease down the drain is much worse for the sewer system.
most modern wastewater plants screen out baby wipes, syringes, tampons and anything else that gets flushed. they then go to the landfill. putting grease down the drain is much worse for the sewer system.
Re: Coronavirus
creep wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:05 pmwhy would you assume i flush them? i am more responsible than that.i just put them in a plastic bag and bring them in the car and throw them out the window.
most modern wastewater plants screen out baby wipes, syringes, tampons and anything else that gets flushed. they then go to the landfill. putting grease down the drain is much worse for the sewer system.
Okay...so what DO you do with them...?
I would actually be a proponent of throwing them out the window. At least people would be aware of a problem.