Coronavirus

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Bandit72
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Re: Coronavirus

#401 Post by Bandit72 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:51 pm

A friend shared this earlier.
Hey everybody, as an infectious disease epidemiologist (although a lowly one), at this point feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I am also tagging my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post. Please correct me if I am wrong (any edits are from peer review).

Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is also normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.

In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.

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Re: Coronavirus

#402 Post by chaos » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:28 pm

https://www.yahoo.com/news/middle-u-bra ... 56898.html

Middle of U.S. Braces for Onslaught as Virus Moves Beyond Coasts
Julie Bosman
The New York Times March 28, 2020, 10:09 AM EDT

CHICAGO — A second wave of coronavirus cases is charting a path far from coastal Washington state, California, New York and New Jersey and threatening population centers in America’s middle. Emerging hot spots include smaller communities like Greenville, Mississippi, and Pine Bluff, Arkansas, and large cities like New Orleans, Milwaukee, Detroit and Chicago.

Local and state leaders find themselves struggling to deal with the deadly onslaught, urgently issuing guidance to residents and sounding the alarm over a dearth of equipment in local clinics and hospitals.

As the threat expands, the orders from state and local officials have sometimes been a chaotic, confusing patchwork. With mixed signals from the federal authorities in Washington, D.C., local leaders have wrestled with complicated medical and economic choices. Mayors and governors in Oklahoma, Massachusetts, South Carolina and Texas have clashed over which restrictions to impose on residents, dispensing contradictory instructions, even as their communities are being ravaged by the virus.

This week, cities and states that had no known cases of the coronavirus not long ago have seen the infection’s sudden, intense arrival. In Detroit, more than 850 cases have been identified and at least 15 people have died. In New Orleans, public health workers have identified more than 1,100 cases, including 57 people who have died. Eight deaths and nearly 400 cases have been reported in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin. And in Chicago and its inner-ring suburbs, there have been nearly 2,000 cases, as of Friday morning.

“I look to New York to see what’s going on there, and I think it’s a cautionary tale for the rest of us,” Mayor Lori Lightfoot of Chicago, a Democrat, said in an interview Friday, a day when known cases in the United States rose above 100,000. “I look at New York and think, what do we do so that we are as prepared as possible as this begins to ramp up in a city like Chicago?”

A survey of cities conducted by the U.S. Conference of Mayors released Friday found that despite assurances by the federal government that adequate medical supplies are available, cities say the equipment they need is not reaching them.

Nearly every American city is lacking the most basic supplies. More than 90% of the nearly 200 cities that responded to the survey said that they did not have a sufficient supply of face masks, and nearly 90% lacked an adequate amount of personal protective equipment. Detroit said it needed 18,000 surgical masks. Dayton, Ohio, needed 200,000 N95 masks, 150,000 pairs of gloves and 100,000 digital thermometers.

Many local officials seeing a rise in cases have struggled to put in place robust restrictions that would help slow the spread of the outbreak. In Albany, Georgia, a city of 73,000 where there have been 16 deaths and more than 160 confirmed cases of the virus, Mayor Bo Dorough imposed a stay-at-home order, similar to those enacted in New York, Illinois and California. But other than Albany and one nearby county, no other jurisdiction in southwest Georgia has restricted people’s movements or ordered businesses deemed nonessential to close.

“It’s not a natural disaster that’s confined to a certain geographic place,” Dorough said. “The county lines don’t mean anything to the virus.”

In Mississippi, the state government had largely resisted calls to put in place regulations around the virus. That led to a jumble of regulations, as mayors in Oxford, Jackson and Tupelo closed bars and restaurants and established shelter orders not much different from the rules in Houston, New Orleans, New York, Boston or San Francisco.

“You can only go so far with leading from below,” said Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba of Jackson, the capital, which has more than 31 confirmed infections. “We need the state.”

In Utah, a standoff between Democratic government officials in Salt Lake City and the state’s Republican governor has heightened worries about the spread of the coronavirus in the state’s most densely populated region.

Erin Mendenhall, Salt Lake City’s mayor, said in an interview that she had drafted — but not yet issued — an emergency order instructing residents to remain in their homes. The order allows people to shop for groceries, pick up medications and exercise, among other activities.

But Mendenhall, a Democrat, said she had not invoked the order because Gov. Gary Herbert, a Republican, had not issued a similar statewide order.

“For a city to do it alone, particularly a city that’s the center for regional activities and business, it doesn’t do as much good as it would if we act as a county or region or even as a state,” she said.

Many of the new cases and deaths have been concentrated in the Midwest’s largest cities.

Detroit has seen an explosion of coronavirus cases, with nearly 900 total — including the city’s police chief, James Craig — and at least 19 deaths. Residents have a hard time comprehending why so many people in their city have become ill, especially because they viewed state and city leaders as having taken aggressive actions early on, said Tonya Allen, the president and chief executive of the Skillman Foundation, a philanthropic organization that focuses on Detroit youth.

“I think we’re all surprised by how fast and hard it’s hitting in Detroit,” she said. “You can imagine why it would hit in some large cities on the coast. But why it’s moving so quickly in Detroit, we have no idea.”

The areas around Cleveland, St. Louis and Kansas City, Missouri, have also seen spikes, leading officials to warn that medical facilities could be overwhelmed.

“What we do now will determine if we overrun Ohio’s hospitals and get to a situation where our medical teams are making life and death decisions,” the state’s governor, Mike DeWine, said Thursday. “We don’t want to be in that position. I worry about this every day.”

The race to keep Americans at home has happened at astonishing speed. In just over a week, nearly half the states have issued orders or formal advisories for residents to stay home, and others have strongly recommended it. As of Friday morning, at least 233 million people — or about 7 in 10 Americans — were being told to stay home.

Some governors who initially resisted such sweeping measures quickly changed their minds. Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, a Republican, who initially described a stay-at-home order as “not a practical ask,” later put one in place.


In independent-minded Texas, where there is no statewide order, at least 20 million people — from the Rio Grande Valley to sprawling suburbs of Dallas — were under local instructions to stay home.

Clay Jenkins, the Democratic Dallas County judge, was the first county executive in Texas to shut down bars and restaurants and issue a stay-at-home order. He said he had been watching the outbreaks on the coasts with alarm, particularly in California and New York.

“Those cities are two steps ahead of us, and I say that every day,” he said. “The storm is coming. But there is a level of unhelpful Texas exceptionalism that leads people to believe that somehow their rugged individualism or gut instincts will handle the virus in a better way.”

One of the biggest challenges to managing the virus locally has been mixed messaging from the White House, said Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, a Democrat. He pointed to President Donald Trump’s statement that he was aiming to have the country up and running again by Easter.

“It’s really dangerous and puts us on a worse track than we’re on today,” he said. “If people get this false sense of security that they can go out in the next couple weeks, we’re not going to see the cases decrease. We’re going to see the deaths spike.”


This article originally appeared in The New York Times.


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Larry B.
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Re: Coronavirus

#403 Post by Larry B. » Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:56 pm

Bandit72 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:51 pm
A friend shared this earlier.
Hey everybody, as an infectious disease epidemiologist (although a lowly one), at this point feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I am also tagging my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post. Please correct me if I am wrong (any edits are from peer review).

Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is also normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.

In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.
I hope everyone would read this. Good, down to earth, realist advice.

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Re: Coronavirus

#404 Post by chaos » Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:09 pm


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Re: Coronavirus

#405 Post by Larry B. » Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:39 pm

The US is realistically looking at covid-19 as the main cause of death in the country in 2 weeks - in an OPTIMISTIC estimation.

If the rate of infection doesn't go down, the US could have 20,000,000 infected people in 2 weeks (with only 2,000,000 teste and confirmed). Which would mean about 200,000 total deaths. That is fucking grim. And Trump doesn't think a quarantine is needed. Maybe 200,000 isn't enough for him.

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Re: Coronavirus

#406 Post by creep » Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:55 pm

cuomo doesn't want it either.

meanwhile in florida

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Re: Coronavirus

#407 Post by Artemis » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:03 pm

Cuomo: Trump's two flaws are 'literally making us sick'
CNN's Chris Cuomo argues that President Donald Trump's Easter timeline isn't aspirational, it's asinine
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/202 ... pt-vpx.cnn

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Re: Coronavirus

#408 Post by clickie » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:29 am

It's surprising that at this point there needs to be a quarantine.

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Re: Coronavirus

#409 Post by chaos » Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:05 am

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... c=nl_ideas

Don’t panic about shopping, getting delivery or accepting packages

By Joseph G. Allen
March 26, 2020 at 8:10 a.m. EDT

Joseph G. Allen is an assistant professor of exposure and assessment science and director of the Healthy Buildings Program at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

A recent study in the New England Journal of Medicine is making people think twice about how they might be exposed to covid-19 if they open a box delivered by UPS, touch packages at the grocery store or accept food delivery.

The risk is low. Let me explain.

First, disease transmission from inanimate surfaces is real, so I don’t want to minimize that. It’s something we have known for a long time; as early as the 1500s, infected surfaces were thought of as “seeds of disease,” able to transfer disease from one person to another.

In that new NEJM study, here’s the finding that is grabbing headlines: The coronavirus that causes covid-19 “was detectable . . . up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.”

The key word here is “detectable.”

Yes, the virus can be detected on some surfaces for up to a day, but the reality is that the levels drop off quickly. For example, the article shows that the virus’s half-life on stainless steel and plastic was 5.6 hours and 6.8 hours, respectively. (Half-life is how long it takes the viral concentration to decrease by half, then half of that half, and so on until it’s gone.)

Now, let’s examine the full causal chain that would have to exist for you to get sick from a contaminated Amazon package at your door or a gallon of milk from the grocery store.

In the case of the Amazon package, the driver would have to be infected and still working despite limited symptoms. (If they were very ill, they would most likely be home; if they had no symptoms, it’s unlikely they would be coughing or sneezing frequently.) Let’s say they wipe their nose, don’t wash their hands and then transfer some virus to your package.

Even then, there would be a time lag from when they transferred the virus until you picked up the package at your door, with the virus degrading all the while. In the worst-case scenario, a visibly sick driver picks up your package from the truck, walks to your front door and sneezes into their hands or directly on the package immediately before handing it to you.

Even in that highly unlikely scenario, you can break this causal chain.

In the epidemiological world, we have a helpful way to think about it: the “Sufficient-Component Cause model.” Think of this model as pieces of a pie. For disease to happen, all of the pieces of the pie have to be there: sick driver, sneezing/coughing, viral particles transferred to the package, a very short time lapse before delivery, you touching the exact same spot on the package as the sneeze, you then touching your face or mouth before hand-washing.

In this model, the virus on the package is a necessary component, but it alone is not sufficient to get you sick. Many other pieces of the pie would have to be in place.


So this is what you can do to disassemble the pie — to cut the chain.

You can leave that cardboard package at your door for a few hours — or bring it inside and leave it right inside your door, then wash your hands again. If you’re still concerned there was any virus on the package, you could wipe down the exterior with a disinfectant, or open it outdoors and put the packaging in the recycling can. (Then wash your hands again.)

What about going to the grocery store? The same approach applies.

Shop when you need to (keeping six feet from other customers) and load items into your cart or basket. Keep your hands away from your face while shopping, and wash them as soon as you’re home. Put away your groceries, and then wash your hands again. If you wait even a few hours before using anything you just purchased, most of the virus that was on any package will be significantly reduced. If you need to use something immediately, and want to take extra precautions, wipe the package down with a disinfectant. Last, wash all fruits and vegetables as you normally would.


We should all be grateful for those who continue to work in food production, distribution and sales, and for all those delivery drivers. They’re keeping us all safer by allowing us to stay home. And, as I said, the risk of disease transmission from surfaces is real. We can never eliminate all risk; the goal is to minimize it — because we all will occasionally need to go grocery shopping and receive supplies in the mail.

But if you take basic precautions, including washing your hands frequently, the danger from accepting a package from a delivery driver or from takeout from a local restaurant or from buying groceries is de minimis. That’s a scientific way of saying, “The risks are small, and manageable.”


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Re: Coronavirus

#410 Post by Artemis » Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:37 am

chaos wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:05 am
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... c=nl_ideas

Don’t panic about shopping, getting delivery or accepting packages

By Joseph G. Allen
March 26, 2020 at 8:10 a.m. EDT

Joseph G. Allen is an assistant professor of exposure and assessment science and director of the Healthy Buildings Program at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

A recent study in the New England Journal of Medicine is making people think twice about how they might be exposed to covid-19 if they open a box delivered by UPS, touch packages at the grocery store or accept food delivery.

The risk is low. Let me explain.

First, disease transmission from inanimate surfaces is real, so I don’t want to minimize that. It’s something we have known for a long time; as early as the 1500s, infected surfaces were thought of as “seeds of disease,” able to transfer disease from one person to another.

In that new NEJM study, here’s the finding that is grabbing headlines: The coronavirus that causes covid-19 “was detectable . . . up to four hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to two to three days on plastic and stainless steel.”

The key word here is “detectable.”

Yes, the virus can be detected on some surfaces for up to a day, but the reality is that the levels drop off quickly. For example, the article shows that the virus’s half-life on stainless steel and plastic was 5.6 hours and 6.8 hours, respectively. (Half-life is how long it takes the viral concentration to decrease by half, then half of that half, and so on until it’s gone.)

Now, let’s examine the full causal chain that would have to exist for you to get sick from a contaminated Amazon package at your door or a gallon of milk from the grocery store.

In the case of the Amazon package, the driver would have to be infected and still working despite limited symptoms. (If they were very ill, they would most likely be home; if they had no symptoms, it’s unlikely they would be coughing or sneezing frequently.) Let’s say they wipe their nose, don’t wash their hands and then transfer some virus to your package.

Even then, there would be a time lag from when they transferred the virus until you picked up the package at your door, with the virus degrading all the while. In the worst-case scenario, a visibly sick driver picks up your package from the truck, walks to your front door and sneezes into their hands or directly on the package immediately before handing it to you.

Even in that highly unlikely scenario, you can break this causal chain.

In the epidemiological world, we have a helpful way to think about it: the “Sufficient-Component Cause model.” Think of this model as pieces of a pie. For disease to happen, all of the pieces of the pie have to be there: sick driver, sneezing/coughing, viral particles transferred to the package, a very short time lapse before delivery, you touching the exact same spot on the package as the sneeze, you then touching your face or mouth before hand-washing.

In this model, the virus on the package is a necessary component, but it alone is not sufficient to get you sick. Many other pieces of the pie would have to be in place.


So this is what you can do to disassemble the pie — to cut the chain.

You can leave that cardboard package at your door for a few hours — or bring it inside and leave it right inside your door, then wash your hands again. If you’re still concerned there was any virus on the package, you could wipe down the exterior with a disinfectant, or open it outdoors and put the packaging in the recycling can. (Then wash your hands again.)

What about going to the grocery store? The same approach applies.

Shop when you need to (keeping six feet from other customers) and load items into your cart or basket. Keep your hands away from your face while shopping, and wash them as soon as you’re home. Put away your groceries, and then wash your hands again. If you wait even a few hours before using anything you just purchased, most of the virus that was on any package will be significantly reduced. If you need to use something immediately, and want to take extra precautions, wipe the package down with a disinfectant. Last, wash all fruits and vegetables as you normally would.


We should all be grateful for those who continue to work in food production, distribution and sales, and for all those delivery drivers. They’re keeping us all safer by allowing us to stay home. And, as I said, the risk of disease transmission from surfaces is real. We can never eliminate all risk; the goal is to minimize it — because we all will occasionally need to go grocery shopping and receive supplies in the mail.

But if you take basic precautions, including washing your hands frequently, the danger from accepting a package from a delivery driver or from takeout from a local restaurant or from buying groceries is de minimis. That’s a scientific way of saying, “The risks are small, and manageable.”

That's good information.
I'm going to continue with my routine of wiping everything because I don't want my mother to catch anything. She hasn't been outside for a few weeks but I go to the shops and use public transit. My mom has an enclosed porch where I keep some wipes and hand sanitizer. I wipe everything before going into her house. I wash my hands, put everything away, wipe all the handles on cupboards and doorknobs, wash my hands again and wipe the faucets. Before I go out from my place, I wipe the shopping bags inside and out, my purse, keys, wallet, transit pass. When I return home, I repeat:wipe door knobs, wash hands, wipe purse, wallet, glasses case, keys, transit pass, wash hands again, wipe faucet. I think I wash my hands at least 20 times a day, plus use hand sanitizer. I'm sure lotion sales are booming. #prunefingers

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Re: Coronavirus

#411 Post by Matz » Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:11 am

nice to see some good news in this thread for a change

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chaos
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Re: Coronavirus

#412 Post by chaos » Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:43 am

Artemis wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:37 am
I wipe the shopping bags inside and out
In Massachusetts the Governor temporarily prohibited the use of reusable bags and lifted the ban on plastic bags. :conf: Whatever works, I'm in. I just need to keep up.

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Re: Coronavirus

#413 Post by chaos » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:04 pm

See Which States and Cities Have Told Residents to Stay at Home
By Sarah Mervosh, Denise Lu and Vanessa Swales
Updated March 28, 2020

Image

In a matter of days, millions of Americans have been asked to do what might have been unthinkable only a week or two ago: Don’t go to work, don’t go to school, don’t leave the house at all, unless you have to.

The directives to keep people at home to stunt the spread of the coronavirus began in California, and have quickly been adopted across the country. By Saturday, more than half the states and the Navajo Nation had told their residents to stay at home as much as possible, with many cities and counties joining in.

This means at least 229 million people in at least 26 states, 66 counties, 14 cities and one territory are being urged to stay home.

People can generally still leave their homes for necessities — to go to the grocery store, to go to the doctor and to get fresh air. Still, the changes so fundamentally alter American life that some states, like Texas, have been hesitant to adopt them. A few states — Maryland and Nevada, for example — have walked up to the line, closing down all non-essential businesses but not issuing formal orders for people to stay home. In other states, leaders described the decision as agonizing but necessary.

“We are at war,” Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio said.

The result is a patchwork of local and state directives that use a variety of terms, like “shelter in place,” or “safer at home.” The stunning effect is the same: About seven in 10 Americans are or will soon be under instructions to stay at home.

Here is a guide to how the orders affect each state in the list below.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... order.html

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Re: Coronavirus

#414 Post by Artemis » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:37 pm

chaos wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:43 am
Artemis wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:37 am
I wipe the shopping bags inside and out
In Massachusetts the Governor temporarily prohibited the use of reusable bags and lifted the ban on plastic bags. :conf: Whatever works, I'm in. I just need to keep up.
They're not banned here yet, but people who bring reusable bags have to pack their own stuff.

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Re: Coronavirus

#415 Post by Artemis » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:41 pm

I went out for a little walk by myself to get some fresh air and couldn't believe the clusters of families, standing around on the sidewalks talking while their kids were running all over. I wish there was a snitch line; I'd call to report them! :mad:

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Re: Coronavirus

#416 Post by chaos » Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:32 pm

A sobering report on COVID-19 in NYC hospitals produced by 60 Minutes. It's 13.5 minute segment. I can't post the video. Here is the link to it:

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/new-york- ... 0-03-29/#x

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Re: Coronavirus

#417 Post by Hype » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:27 am

Three quarters of a million recorded cases and 35,000 deaths.

But social distancing measures appear to be working, so imagine what things would have looked like if we hadn't done anything!

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Matz
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Re: Coronavirus

#418 Post by Matz » Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:58 am

Imagine if H5N1 happens :yikes:

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Re: Coronavirus

#419 Post by mockbee » Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:05 am

Does anybody know if they have an idea of the percentage of exposed people contracting the virus (even if it doesn't show) vs exposed unaffected?
I suppose it needs to be broken down with age groups as well.

Seems that would tell us a lot about where we are with this. Of course, the figures known in the nursing/assisted living once it gets in are very concerning....

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Re: Coronavirus

#420 Post by Hype » Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:22 am

Matz wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:58 am
Imagine if H5N1 happens :yikes:
Now would actually be a decent time to have a dangerous strain of the flu pop up. For one thing, half the word is shut down and no one is traveling. For another, we’re all already artificially limiting contact with each other. They’re seeing expected numbers of fevers and related signals of communicable diseases sitting lower than they expected for this time of year. So, yeah... bring on the flu. At least we have treatments for that that work.

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Re: Coronavirus

#421 Post by Matz » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:59 am

I don't think it's that simple at all. You'd see a whole other level of panic and chaos . Many more people would get sick than now, not "just" primarily the elderly and sick and there'd soon be shortages of food and medicine and gas etc and the world would become an increasingly very very dangerous place to be. This is nothing compared to that. I hope it never ever breaks out. And we don't have treatment for H5N1. Those few ventilators each country has would run out in five days or something.

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Re: Coronavirus

#422 Post by Hype » Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:31 am

Matz wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:59 am
I don't think it's that simple at all. You'd see a whole other level of panic and chaos . Many more people would get sick than now, not "just" primarily the elderly and sick and there'd soon be shortages of food and medicine and gas etc and the world would become an increasingly very very dangerous place to be. This is nothing compared to that. I hope it never ever breaks out. And we don't have treatment for H5N1. Those few ventilators each country has would run out in five days or something.
What?! What are you talking about. Tamiflu works for avian flu: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2835509/ And flu vaccines are effective if they target the prevailing strains.

The flu is bad, but it's a completely different game than this novel coronavirus.

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Re: Coronavirus

#423 Post by Matz » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:19 am

Really? Tamiflu is effective against H5N1? Cool, I could have sworn it wasn't very effective at all. Nice

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Re: Coronavirus

#424 Post by Matz » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:44 am

Ok, maybe I wasn't a complete idiot, from Wikipedia:
Treatment (H5N1)
Further information: Flu research
There is no highly effective treatment for H5N1 flu, but oseltamivir (commercially marketed by Roche as Tamiflu), can sometimes inhibit the influenza virus from spreading inside the user's body. This drug has become a focus for some governments and organizations trying to prepare for a possible H5N1 pandemic.[49] On April 20, 2006, Roche AG announced that a stockpile of three million treatment courses of Tamiflu are waiting at the disposal of the World Health Organization to be used in case of a flu pandemic; separately Roche donated two million courses to the WHO for use in developing nations that may be affected by such a pandemic but lack the ability to purchase large quantities of the drug.[50]

However, WHO expert Hassan al-Bushra has said:

"Even now, we remain unsure about Tamiflu's real effectiveness.

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Re: Coronavirus

#425 Post by Hype » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:52 am

Matz wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:44 am
Ok, maybe I wasn't a complete idiot, from Wikipedia:
Treatment (H5N1)
Further information: Flu research
There is no highly effective treatment for H5N1 flu, but oseltamivir (commercially marketed by Roche as Tamiflu), can sometimes inhibit the influenza virus from spreading inside the user's body. This drug has become a focus for some governments and organizations trying to prepare for a possible H5N1 pandemic.[49] On April 20, 2006, Roche AG announced that a stockpile of three million treatment courses of Tamiflu are waiting at the disposal of the World Health Organization to be used in case of a flu pandemic; separately Roche donated two million courses to the WHO for use in developing nations that may be affected by such a pandemic but lack the ability to purchase large quantities of the drug.[50]

However, WHO expert Hassan al-Bushra has said:

"Even now, we remain unsure about Tamiflu's real effectiveness.
No, you're not a complete idiot. But I will point out that the information on Wikipedia, including that quotation, is from 2006. The article I linked you to is from 2010, and so should supersede the Wiki stuff. I could probably find more up-to-date data if you're curious.

At any rate, there are worries of resistance to it, as well, but a ton of work is being done. E.g., https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6692545/

The other thing to remember is that the issue with this coronavirus isn't its lethality, but its novelty. And like I said, one side-effect of our current reaction to Covid-19 is that other disease rates appear to be below seasonal norms.

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