Coronavirus

[Matz]

ok, I see, that sucks.

But if that's the case how are they able to make a new influenza vaccine each year? Or is it basically the same one?

[Artemis]

Oregon (population 4.2 million) currently has capacity to test 60 specimens a day for COVID-19.
Oregon Health Authority hoping to ramp up in a couple weeks. They said the were relying on the feds for support.....

60 only??

In my province, population is about 14.5 million(I realize much larger than Oregon) and we are doing 2000 per day, ramping up to do 5000 per day 24/7.

[drwintercreeper]

It's times like this we need to turn to Wilco.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbBDiaL ... 3v&index=6

fuck yeah, listening to being there right now. i forgot how good it is. wilco is a band that knows how to not shit the bed as they age.

[mockbee]

Oregon (population 4.2 million) currently has capacity to test 60 specimens a day for COVID-19.
Oregon Health Authority hoping to ramp up in a couple weeks. They said the were relying on the feds for support.....

60 only??

In my province, population is about 14.5 million(I realize much larger than Oregon) and we are doing 2000 per day, ramping up to do 5000 per day 24/7.

Yeah, its pathetic. The VA has some capacity at Fed level, but not much. Everything needs to be contracted out, along with everyone else, but they havent set anything up yet....last in line.

[chaos]

ok, I see, that sucks.

But if that's the case how are they able to make a new influenza vaccine each year? Or is it basically the same one?

Each year they choose 3 strands (out of maybe 15) based on predictions on the type of viruses that may be going around. I assume that they just don't put all the tested vaccine strands in one annual vaccine since it may overwhelm an immune system.

BTW - I have never had a flu shot.

[chaos]

A coronavirus vaccine trial in humans has begun. When could a COVID-19 shot be available?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-18/ ... s/12067024

[chaos]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... 7X3JCPO5PI

6:38 p.m.
FDA suspends most domestic inspections of food, drug, device makers

The Food and Drug Administration on announced Wednesday it postponed until further notice most U.S. inspections of manufacturers of food, drugs, biologics, devices and other products, citing the safety of its employees and industry concerns about visitors.

Earlier this month, the agency postponed through April most inspections of foreign facilities.

The inspections in question are routine “surveillance” ones that are conducted every few years based on a risk analysis.
“For cause” inspections, which occur when the FDA is worried about a specific problem, will “be evaluated and will proceed if mission-critical,” FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn said in a statement.

The agency also directed all eligible FDA employees to begin teleworking.

Hahn said the agency is evaluating additional ways to conduct inspections that won’t jeopardize public safety or will protect staff and the firms, including evaluating records in lieu of conducting on-site inspections.

By Laurie McGinley

[mockbee]

Younger Adults Comprise Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.
New C.D.C. data showed that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were aged 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/heal ... e=Homepage

[Hype]

ok, I see, that sucks.

But if that's the case how are they able to make a new influenza vaccine each year? Or is it basically the same one?

Each year they choose 3 strands (out of maybe 15) based on predictions on the type of viruses that may be going around. I assume that they just don't put all the tested vaccine strands in one annual vaccine since it may overwhelm an immune system.

BTW - I have never had a flu shot.

It has nothing to do with overwhelming the immune system.

A universal flu vaccine has eluded scientists for decades. Unlike other viruses, influenza has a rapid-fire mutation rate and thousands of different strains, which complicates the process. With several candidates now in development and a fresh batch of federal funding, researchers say a universal flu vaccine could be within reach, though it may be years before a vaccine is ready for human use.

Here's an okay explanation for some of the additional problem: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-selection.htm

The seasonal influenza (flu) vaccine is designed to protect against the three or four influenza viruses research indicates are most likely to spread and cause illness among people during the upcoming flu season. Flu viruses are constantly changing, so the vaccine composition is reviewed each year and updated as needed based on which influenza viruses are making people sick, the extent to which those viruses are spreading, and how well the previous season’s vaccine protects against those viruses.

[...]

Regardless of how they are grown, vaccine viruses must be tested and available in time to allow for production of the large amount of vaccine virus needed to make vaccine. Occasionally, a suitable vaccine virus cannot be identified or developed in time to be included in the upcoming season’s vaccine.

[...]

Twice a year, the World Health Organization (WHO) organizes a consultation with the Directors of the WHO Collaborating Centers, essential regulatory laboratories and representatives of key national laboratories and academies. They review the results of surveillance, laboratory, and clinical studies, and the availability of vaccine viruses and make recommendations on the composition of the influenza vaccine. These meetings take place in February for selection of the upcoming Northern Hemisphere’s seasonal influenza vaccine and in September for the Southern Hemisphere’s vaccine. WHO recommends specific vaccine viruses for inclusion in influenza vaccines, but then each country makes their own decision about which viruses should be included in influenza vaccines licensed in their country.

[Bandit72]

Found this interesting.

[chaos]

It has nothing to do with overwhelming the immune system.

A universal flu vaccine has eluded scientists for decades. Unlike other viruses, influenza has a rapid-fire mutation rate and thousands of different strains, which complicates the process.

Yes and the immune system can't learn all of the combinations at once.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/smar ... -year.html
Why isn’t there a universal flu vaccine yet? The immune system can’t learn every possible combination of HA and NA. Scientists are trying to develop a vaccine that teaches the immune system to recognize a different part of the virus than HA or NA, but that’s hard to do when the immune system automatically notices those proteins first.

[Hype]

It has nothing to do with overwhelming the immune system.

A universal flu vaccine has eluded scientists for decades. Unlike other viruses, influenza has a rapid-fire mutation rate and thousands of different strains, which complicates the process.

Yes and the immune system can't learn all of the combinations at once.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/smar ... -year.html
Why isn’t there a universal flu vaccine yet? The immune system can’t learn every possible combination of HA and NA. Scientists are trying to develop a vaccine that teaches the immune system to recognize a different part of the virus than HA or NA, but that’s hard to do when the immune system automatically notices those proteins first.

Yes, but that claim isn't about overwhelming the immune system (which suggests that if we made such a vaccine it would somehow break / shut down / be ignored by our immune response). It's just a mathematical claim, probably based on this information:

There are 18 known HA subtypes and 11 known NA subtypes. That means theoretically 198 combinations from known subtypes. We've identified around 131 of these.

But there are also B, C, and D types of Influenza,which don't have subtypes, but a whole different thing. A, B, and C are known to be able to cause seasonal flu. D might be able to.

There are also clades: "Of all the influenza viruses that routinely circulate and cause illness in people, influenza A(H3N2) viruses tend to change more rapidly, both genetically and antigenically. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses have formed many separate, genetically different clades in recent years that continue to co-circulate."

So, not only would the immune system need to learn to fight off at least 131 main subtypes of Influenza A, and some number of strains of B and C, and maybe D, but would also need to be able to learn to fight off each different clade, of which there are potentially a very, very large number (technically potentially infinite, but practically much lower).

Flu vaccines are fairly coarse-grained. They just go for expected prevalent subtypes.

[chaos]

^ I don't understand how that is different from what I am saying about the immune system and the current approach to the annual flu vaccine.

Yes viruses change and mutate. The goal for a universal flu vaccine is to provide an immunity so people could forgo the yearly/bi-yearly shots; that involves a completely different approach because of the numerous strains and clades.

[Hype]

^ I don't understand how that is different from what I am saying about the immune system and the current approach to the annual flu vaccine.

Yes viruses change and mutate. The goal for a universal flu vaccine is to provide an immunity so people could forgo the yearly/bi-yearly shots; that involves a completely different approach because of the numerous strains and clades.

I think maybe we weren't saying anything different, except that it sounded like you were saying that something about the number of subtypes of flu would itself be the cause of some failure of our immune system if we made a vaccine with say... I don't know... 100 types in it. As I understand it, we *could* do that, and our body probably would deal with it just fine, but it'd be prohibitively expensive to manufacture, and since we'd still need it every year, it's kind of pointless to approach it that way. But yeah, I guess we're basically saying the same thing.

[Artemis]

My new normal is waking up early and getting out as soon as possible to see what what I can find in the stores. I go to a bunch of different drug stores, supermarkets and dollar stores. I'm not hoarding, just trying to find enough supplies, mainly cleaning products that I'll share with my mother. I noticed today that the supermarkets are getting a little more stocked. I was happy to find paper towels at a reasonable price, spray disinfectant, flour, rice, tuna and coffee filters. Fresh fruit&veg, fresh baked goods all seem to be in good supply. Even picked up a couple of chickens and some ground beef.

[Artemis]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... IB_Y4ldOu0

Breaking: Italy on Thursday hit a grim milestone, surpassing China for the largest number of coronavirus-related deaths, at 3,405.

The novel coronavirus continued to spread globally, with Italy announcing a record number of deaths Wednesday and Spain reporting a similarly alarming death-toll spike Thursday. New numbers out of Iran are also grim.

But news from China on Thursday may offer a glimmer of hope: The country reported no new locally transmitted cases the previous day for the first time since the outbreak began late last year.

Here are some significant developments:

India barred incoming commercial flights for a week, and Australia and New Zealand closed their borders to everyone except citizens and residents. The United Arab Emirates went further, stopping expatriate residents from returning to the country. Meanwhile, Italy is extending lockdown measures.
Prince Albert of Monaco has tested positive for the coronavirus. That announcement came hours after the European Union’s top Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said he tested positive. U.S. Reps. Ben McAdams (D-Utah) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) both announced positive tests, as well; they are the first confirmed cases in Congress.
The European Central Bank announced an $820 billion emergency bond-buying program as President Trump and congressional leaders planned a $1 trillion stimulus package, including special assistance for small businesses and airlines. Trump also signed into a law a bill to ensure paid leave benefits for many Americans.

[chaos]

^ I don't understand how that is different from what I am saying about the immune system and the current approach to the annual flu vaccine.

Yes viruses change and mutate. The goal for a universal flu vaccine is to provide an immunity so people could forgo the yearly/bi-yearly shots; that involves a completely different approach because of the numerous strains and clades.

I think maybe we weren't saying anything different, except that it sounded like you were saying that something about the number of subtypes of flu would itself be the cause of some failure of our immune system if we made a vaccine with say... I don't know... 100 types in it. As I understand it, we *could* do that, and our body probably would deal with it just fine, but it'd be prohibitively expensive to manufacture, and since we'd still need it every year, it's kind of pointless to approach it that way. But yeah, I guess we're basically saying the same thing.

Okay - but this is how you define it:

Yes, but that claim isn't about overwhelming the immune system (which suggests that if we made such a vaccine it would somehow break / shut down / be ignored by our immune response).

You indicate that the immune system would either react negatively or would not react at all.

Your definition fits, but then you seem to be saying that you don't think there would be negative effects to the immune system. It would, as you say, be cost prohibitive since the immune system would not work as intended when more than 3 or 4 stains are introduced to it.

I actually agree with both parts of your definition. Here is why:

https://www.livescience.com/why-flu-sho ... u-flu.html

And just as the polio vaccine won't give a child polio, the flu vaccine will not cause the flu. That's because the flu vaccine is made with inactive strains of the flu virus, which are not capable of causing the flu.

That said, some people may feel sick after they receive the flu shot which can lead to thinking they got sick from the shot.

However, feeling under the weather after a flu shot is actually a positive. It can be a sign that your body's immune response is working. What happens is this: When you receive the flu shot, your body recognizes the inactive flu virus as a foreign invader. This is not dangerous; it causes your immune system to develop antibodies to attack the flu virus when exposed in the future. This natural immune response may cause some people to develop a low-grade fever, headache or overall muscle aches. These side effects can be mistaken for the flu but in reality are likely the body's normal response to vaccination.

I think the immune system can only take on so much. Adding all 12 or 15 strains that doctors currently work with for the annual vaccine would probably not do anything to a person's immune system, and would have less efficacy than a vaccine targeted for 3 or 4 strains since the immune system can make just so many antibodies at one time.

Hypothetically speaking, I also think inoculations containing dozen(s) of strains, given year after year for decades, could potentially harm the immune system. What would such a vaccine do to the immune system? I don't know, but neither do the scientists.

The annual flu vaccine and a (potential) universal vaccine are designed to target the "foreign invaders" in completely different ways.

I have tried to clarify my points simply, although I'm still not sure we agree.

I'm not a doctor. I just play one on the internet.

[Artemis]

[kv]

Cali's gov just said 56% of Cali will have it in 8 weeks...fun!

[Pandemonium]

My new normal is waking up early and getting out as soon as possible to see what what I can find in the stores. I go to a bunch of different drug stores, supermarkets and dollar stores. I'm not hoarding, just trying to find enough supplies, mainly cleaning products that I'll share with my mother. I noticed today that the supermarkets are getting a little more stocked. I was happy to find paper towels at a reasonable price, spray disinfectant, flour, rice, tuna and coffee filters. Fresh fruit&veg, fresh baked goods all seem to be in good supply. Even picked up a couple of chickens and some ground beef.

I had to be one of the dummies standing in line (in pouring rain no less) for an hour this morning waiting for Costco to open to get a pack of toilet and towel paper. The last few days shopping for stuff to hold us over for a couple weeks, I became alarmed that I wasn't seeing toilet paper *anywhere.* I'm usually pretty well stocked on necessities like bottled water, canned food, etc as part of typical SoCal earthquake/natural disaster preparedness but the toilet paper thing admittedly caught me flatfooted and I finally had to go out foraging. My caveman ancestors brought home a lion carcass, I bring home Charmin.

There was probably a couple hundred people in line when doors opened and there was no "social distancing" whatsoever as people crushed into the building like it was Black Friday. Then you had to stand in a long, slow moving line inside the building to get your 1 per person allotment of paper products. I also had to make a run to the Kaiser pharmacy to pick up my wife's perscrips for the month. They had "screeners" outside limiting people entry who exhibited symptoms - which were checked by asking the usual questions (Travel outside US? Coughing? Feel sick, Etc) but they had *no* thermometers and on nurse said they weren't expecting any until early Summer(!).

In my travels the last few days, it was weird to notice that Best Buys and a few other large non-grocery retailers were still open, something I expect to change after tonight's state-wide decree. The other thing I noticed, it's mostly older, elderly people still out and about.

[Pandemonium]

Cali's gov just said 56% of Cali will have it in 8 weeks...fun!

The thing about that number is, most of us won't be able to get tested and ever know for sure unless we're exhibited strong symptoms.

[Hype]

Cali's gov just said 56% of Cali will have it in 8 weeks...fun!

The thing about that number is, most of us won't be able to get tested and ever know for sure unless we're exhibited strong symptoms.

You'll know it by the ... trail of dead.

[creep]

We had a meeting yesterday with about 20 people announcing that there will be no more meetings and instructing us to keep our distance. We then had a meeting after lunch showing us how to disinfect stuff. A few hours later we had a meeting about the shelter in place recommendation and how we are going to handle it.

We are not doing very well with this no meeting thing.

Leave it to the City.....
Or are you County?

city....actually they have been pretty good about it. like i said before we have to work so we are going to three 10 hour days a week and we are working with just two people a day. they are still paying us the same. one of my coworkers is 67 and he was sent home with pay until it i over.

[clickie]

I've heard from multiple sources that Illinois will be shutting it all down within the next 2-3 days.

[Artemis]

. The other thing I noticed, it's mostly older, elderly people still out and about.

All the supermarkets and drugstores here are designating their first hour or two from opening for seniors and people with mobility/disability issues so that they can shop without crowds and waiting in long lines to pay.