Re: Coronavirus
Posted: Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:43 pm
Any bets for for long before we hit 10 million? I'm going to say by the end of April.Coronavirus Cases:
1,009,699
view by country
Deaths:
52,855
Any bets for for long before we hit 10 million? I'm going to say by the end of April.Coronavirus Cases:
1,009,699
view by country
Deaths:
52,855
I'm not deep into the statistical models but if you are including non-symptom/mild reveal cases, wouldnt you say we are there already.....?
Only tested. There's no point in talking about global untested cases because the variance between and within jurisdictions is too complicated. Modelling can deal with this in broad strokes with error margins. But one thing that's important about tested cases is that these are generally going to be people who were highest risk to begin with (because that's what the testing criteria were) and those displaying symptoms. Yes, we need to know in some sense roughly how many people are walking around asymptomatic and spreading it, and they do have some idea of that (it's apparently something like up to 50% of all infections). Some of the tested cases are asymptomatic people too.
The end result of all of this just might be the end of the United States as a world power (see, e.g., https://www.businessinsider.com/us-econ ... ays-2019-1 ) and a trusted ally for the rest of the developed world. There's not much Canada can really do to prevent American isolationism. And we're stuck bearing the brunt of whatever disastrously stupid policies they set at a national level because our economy is tied so directly to the American one. (Not to mention we're a petro-state and oil is currently sitting at late-1990s prices...)Artemis wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:21 pmIn my province, Ontario, the projections for the number of deaths is 3000-15,000. By the end of April, 1,600.
An announcement was made today for more business closures, including construction sites that aren't considered essential. So, transportation projects will continue and homes that are nearing completion. More fines for people disobeying social distancing rules. The President and CEO of Public Health Ontario said the pandemic may last for 18 months to two years with a potential second wave of the virus.
Oh, and fuck Trump forever and ever! He's trying to stop 3M from sending N95 masks to Canada and other countries.Trudeau did immediately respond that there could be retaliations. For example, there are many nurses and other healthcare workers from Canada who cross the border in Detroit to work in the US. I'm sure Trump wouldn't want that to stop now.
Apparently, 3M said no.Oh, and fuck Trump forever and ever! He's trying to stop 3M from sending N95 masks to Canada and other countries.Trudeau did immediately respond that there could be retaliations. For example, there are many nurses and other healthcare workers from Canada who cross the border in Detroit to work in the US. I'm sure Trump wouldn't want that to stop now.
The problem is that Trump's powers during this crisis are extraordinary. See: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... us/608083/Larry B. wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:26 pmApparently, 3M said no.Oh, and fuck Trump forever and ever! He's trying to stop 3M from sending N95 masks to Canada and other countries.Trudeau did immediately respond that there could be retaliations. For example, there are many nurses and other healthcare workers from Canada who cross the border in Detroit to work in the US. I'm sure Trump wouldn't want that to stop now.
It wasn't just masks that Trump didn't want 3M to send to Canada and Latin America, but respirators too.
In this case, it looks like 3M wins because Canada is the source for the raw materials for the masks (but not the respirators?). But don't underestimate the degree to which this isn't business as usual. Corporations don't have as much power as national governments when there is no economy.
In severely capitalists countries (like Chile and the US), governments don’t have much. Corporations have everyone on their payrolls. I understand that it’s most definitely NOT business as usual, but capitalist governments will shed a lot of working class blood before attacking corporations.Hype wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:42 pmIn this case, it looks like 3M wins because Canada is the source for the raw materials for the masks (but not the respirators?). But don't underestimate the degree to which this isn't business as usual. Corporations don't have as much power as national governments when there is no economy.
16K hospitalized so far in NY. 11K have been discharged. Hopefully 4-8 days until peak.
Phil McCausland
3h ago / 10:47 AM CDT
New York has 10,841 new cases in one day, a record high
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Saturday the state has 10,841 new coronavirus cases since Friday, a record, bringing the total to 113,704.
The number of deaths since Friday is 640, which puts the total deaths from the virus in New York at 3,565.
The total number of people hospitalized is 15,905. But, Cuomo said, two-thirds of all people who have been hospitalized have been discharged.
The governor said the state is probably four to eight days from a peak in coronavirus cases and is doing as much as it can to prepare.
"In some ways, I want to get to that apex, get to the other side of that apex and slide down that mountain," the governor said. "On the other hand, we have to be ready for that fight and we have to handle that fight."
Half of all confirmed infections. That's important, because NY recently ramped up their testing way more than most other US states. The other thing to consider is that this is going to hit the middle of the country *way* harder than NY. NY has world-class healthcare and loads of doctors and nurses. Rural areas with aging populations are going to be in a lot of trouble in a few weeks if governors and mayors don't get their acts together.
There is zero chance this hits the middle of the country harder than NY. It's impossible. You know better than that. Comparing NYC in terms of density and geography to almost any other city in America is apples to oranges. And there are wonderful medical centers and world class hospitals in mid America as well. Less density, better preparedness for the peak, and great hospitals.Hype wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:23 pmHalf of all confirmed infections. That's important, because NY recently ramped up their testing way more than most other US states. The other thing to consider is that this is going to hit the middle of the country *way* harder than NY. NY has world-class healthcare and loads of doctors and nurses. Rural areas with aging populations are going to be in a lot of trouble in a few weeks if governors and mayors don't get their acts together.
Matz wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:24 pmI don't understand the whole "peaking thing". Why do people think its going to peak? You'd think it would be here as long as there are people to infect. As far as I know the Spanish flu didn't "peak", it was here for a year or something and died off only because everybody were either dead or had become immune to it.
I'd assume it could be explained like this: at some point, there should be so many people infected, that the rate at which they become 'healthy' (e.g., 2,000 per day) is higher than the rate at which non-infected people become infected (e.g., 1,400 per day). I've no idea about the mathematics or modelling for this shit, but that seems reasonable enough, doesn't it?Matz wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:24 pmI don't understand the whole "peaking thing". Why do people think its going to peak? You'd think it would be here as long as there are people to infect. As far as I know the Spanish flu didn't "peak", it was here for a year or something and died off only because everybody were either dead or had become immune to it.
A bit funny that these projections, you like. And you still failed to mention that per that projection, about 55% of all ICU beds in the state would be needed. And in that state, apparently there haven't been any orders to stay at home, to avoid traveling, etc. If there had been, instead of 1,290 deaths you could've easily be looking at around 300 or 400 deaths, if that. But apparently, that doesn't matter?Hokahey wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:57 pmLook at this link:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
These data projections are from the University of Washington.
Total Covid-19 deaths projected for the entire state of Missouri is 1,290 with no more than 30% of hospital beds utilized at peak.
The state has now issued a blanket stay at home order, but the major metropolitan areas have had them for some time. People outside of the US don't tend to understand how state/city/county levels of law and authority work. I've been under lockdown for weeks now in the biggest city in Missouri with an order lasting until at least 4/22. We good.Larry B. wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:28 pmI'd assume it could be explained like this: at some point, there should be so many people infected, that the rate at which they become 'healthy' (e.g., 2,000 per day) is higher than the rate at which non-infected people become infected (e.g., 1,400 per day). I've no idea about the mathematics or modelling for this shit, but that seems reasonable enough, doesn't it?Matz wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:24 pmI don't understand the whole "peaking thing". Why do people think its going to peak? You'd think it would be here as long as there are people to infect. As far as I know the Spanish flu didn't "peak", it was here for a year or something and died off only because everybody were either dead or had become immune to it.
From the beginning, the most immediate goal has been to control the spread, because we just can't produce a vaccine quickly enough. Beyond that, it's up to each person to risk it or not, but if everyone got infected at the same time, loads of people would die due to medical equipment and personnel not being enough. But if the virus spreads slowly, it'd contribute towards the scenario I described in my paragraph above.
A bit funny that these projections, you like. And you still failed to mention that per that projection, about 55% of all ICU beds in the state would be needed. And in that state, apparently there haven't been any orders to stay at home, to avoid traveling, etc. If there had been, instead of 1,290 deaths you could've easily be looking at around 300 or 400 deaths, if that. But apparently, that doesn't matter?Hokahey wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:57 pmLook at this link:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
These data projections are from the University of Washington.
Total Covid-19 deaths projected for the entire state of Missouri is 1,290 with no more than 30% of hospital beds utilized at peak.
Right now, I think many people look astonished at Sweden. The country of prohibition is open, the children go to school, while we, the Latinos of Scandinavia, the wild, open and naughty, are completely shut down. In Malmö they drink cafe latte in the sun on Stortorget, while in Copenhagen we sneak around each other in large circles for fear of being infected.
Both Sweden and Denmark are led by social democrats, but they obviously look quite differently at how we best get through the corona crisis.
The death stall in Sweden is approx. twice as high as in Denmark. This could indicate that Mette Frederiksen is the wisest. But that would be a hasty conclusion.
We must all have corona at some point and therefore nothing is left until we have all been through the disease or a vaccine has been found. In Sweden, the corona thus rages harder than in Denmark. Can one thus conclude that they come through faster? Maybe maybe not.
In fact, the score can only be settled in a few years. And included in that calculation is how the economy has developed in the meantime. Right now we have almost 50,000 new unemployed with the coronan closure. We have seen entire industries laid waste and a beginning wave of bankruptcies that even the government's well-meaning support packages cannot prevent.
The negative spiral is underway. Will it stop once we re-open? We don't know that either.
In Sweden, society is less affected, and the frightening scenario for me is that in two years the Swedes prove to have slipped through the corona crisis in health relatively graciously and without having done lasting damage to the economy, while we are hopelessly lagging behind because of the total stop .
No doubt that we Danes are with Mette Frederiksen right now. She has shown acting power. But was it too much?
There are clear cracks in the arguments for the rock hard line, where all the forces are focused on fighting the corona.
The hospitals are not overloaded. Right now, personnel are being sent home, which seems absurd because thousands of operations have been canceled. Everything is switched to corona epidemic, but the patients failed.
And the economy has been sent out on the edge of the abyss. As I wrote last week: I hope the hell the government knows what they are doing - and is smarter than the Swedes.
Yes, this. This is pretty much my point of view.Matz wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:06 amThis is written by the Editor in chief of a big newspaper here. It's the first time I've heard this point of view. Maybe we, and many other countries, are handling this the wrong way completely
Right now, I think many people look astonished at Sweden. The country of prohibition is open, the children go to school, while we, the Latinos of Scandinavia, the wild, open and naughty, are completely shut down. In Malmö they drink cafe latte in the sun on Stortorget, while in Copenhagen we sneak around each other in large circles for fear of being infected.
Both Sweden and Denmark are led by social democrats, but they obviously look quite differently at how we best get through the corona crisis.
The death stall in Sweden is approx. twice as high as in Denmark. This could indicate that Mette Frederiksen is the wisest. But that would be a hasty conclusion.
We must all have corona at some point and therefore nothing is left until we have all been through the disease or a vaccine has been found. In Sweden, the corona thus rages harder than in Denmark. Can one thus conclude that they come through faster? Maybe maybe not.
In fact, the score can only be settled in a few years. And included in that calculation is how the economy has developed in the meantime. Right now we have almost 50,000 new unemployed with the coronan closure. We have seen entire industries laid waste and a beginning wave of bankruptcies that even the government's well-meaning support packages cannot prevent.
The negative spiral is underway. Will it stop once we re-open? We don't know that either.
In Sweden, society is less affected, and the frightening scenario for me is that in two years the Swedes prove to have slipped through the corona crisis in health relatively graciously and without having done lasting damage to the economy, while we are hopelessly lagging behind because of the total stop .
No doubt that we Danes are with Mette Frederiksen right now. She has shown acting power. But was it too much?
There are clear cracks in the arguments for the rock hard line, where all the forces are focused on fighting the corona.
The hospitals are not overloaded. Right now, personnel are being sent home, which seems absurd because thousands of operations have been canceled. Everything is switched to corona epidemic, but the patients failed.
And the economy has been sent out on the edge of the abyss. As I wrote last week: I hope the hell the government knows what they are doing - and is smarter than the Swedes.