Coronavirus

Discussion relating to current events, politics, religion, etc
Message
Author
User avatar
Hype
Posts: 6879
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Coronavirus

#641 Post by Hype » Fri May 01, 2020 8:15 am

Hokahey wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 7:19 am
Hype wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:52 am
Researchers and analysts across the globe think the data suggests that the true number of infections is 10x higher than tested. So... 10 million in the US and maybe 30 million total.
Which means the mortality rate is also much, much lower.
Yeah, maybe. It depends on whether deaths are not being reported properly either (see Larry’s point above). One thing that was noticed about Russia is that they had a spike in “pneumonia” deaths above norms, but they weren’t testing for Coronavirus. That’s part of what I meant by analysts seeing reality in the data regardless of what gets reported.

In the West, even in the US and Canada, there are differences in how reporting is done. There was a big thing about how they’d have an outbreak in a care home, but if they found people dead, they weren’t testing them or recording them as covid, even if they probably were.

Also, it’s worth noting that the untested cases likely don’t mean a lower death rate among the elderly or compromised. That rate is pretty clear, and very bad. Much worse than the flu.

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 6879
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Coronavirus

#642 Post by Hype » Fri May 01, 2020 8:16 am

mockbee wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 6:19 am
Hype wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 5:13 am
If Trump wasn't in power, and if someone younger and better than Biden were the Dem nominee, this would be an opportune moment in history to implement lasting corrections to the past 40 years of deregulation and tax-avoidance to pay for this damage.


With what money?

It is all fake.

It is currently being printed faster than the presses can keep up with, and the corporate $$$ is tied up in loony stocks.

I think the jig may be up......


:noclue:

Crashing Economy, Rising Stocks: What’s Going On?
What’s bad for America is sometimes good for the market.

Paul Krugman


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opin ... e=Homepage


You nationalize “essential” businesses and implement a top marginal income tax and capital gains tax of 90-100%.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2878
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Coronavirus

#643 Post by mockbee » Fri May 01, 2020 9:20 am

Hype wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 8:16 am
mockbee wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 6:19 am
Hype wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 5:13 am
If Trump wasn't in power, and if someone younger and better than Biden were the Dem nominee, this would be an opportune moment in history to implement lasting corrections to the past 40 years of deregulation and tax-avoidance to pay for this damage.


With what money?

It is all fake.

It is currently being printed faster than the presses can keep up with, and the corporate $$$ is tied up in loony stocks.

I think the jig may be up......


:noclue:

Crashing Economy, Rising Stocks: What’s Going On?
What’s bad for America is sometimes good for the market.

Paul Krugman


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opin ... e=Homepage


You nationalize “essential” businesses and implement a top marginal income tax and capital gains tax of 90-100%.

Cuba

:nod:



:wave:

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 6879
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Coronavirus

#644 Post by Hype » Fri May 01, 2020 10:08 am

No, not exactly. I didn't say overthrow the CIA-backed fascist government in an armed revolt and then implement a strict centralized economy. Let me put it a different way: take healthcare for an archetype of this sort of thing. An overly simplified, libertarian, capitalist intuition (based on misreading Adam Smith) would be that a free market healthcare system should lower costs and increase quality, since presumably that's what the "consumer" wants -- so they will patronize only those doctors and hospitals and drug companies that offer the best compromise of affordability and quality. But in practice this obviously doesn't work. It creates a discriminatory tiered system in which something ostensibly essential for all people is practically affordable only for the wealthy and those lucky enough to have private health insurance through their employers. But at the very least, insurance is meant to be a scheme that allows a collective to protect all its members from disaster. That's why it's actually more efficient to have an all-in, mandatory universal public insurance scheme for healthcare, and probably auto and home insurance, if not for everything. So, how to fix the existence of private for-profit insurance companies? Nationalize them, or declare them illegal and set up a public insurance scheme. You can do this in a less brutal way by starting with a public option, as the Affordable Care Act does. But the side effect of this is that people complain that their premiums are still expensive. It would be cheaper and better for everyone to transition over to a single-payer.

What else is like this? Well, arguably utilities: power, water, sewage, garbage collection -- these are often public, though there have been many pushes to privatize these things in many jurisdictions across North America. Why should these be public? Well, they're public goods. They're things we all rely on for basic needs, and for society to function normally. Privatizing these things is usually argued to drive costs down. But how does it do this? It relies on union-busting and extremely high turnover, as well as cutting corners. This isn't what we as a society should want for things like water, sewage, and power. It's too important and too dangerous not to regulate the hell out of it, at the very least. Running these publicly cuts the costs of regulating many private companies.

What else should be public? Arguably cellular service and internet. And at this point possibly also delivery services (i.e., absorb private companies into the USPS).

Amazon should be broken up, if not nationalized.

A top tax-bracket of 90-100% isn't Cuba, it's the United States ca. 1950-65 or so.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2878
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Coronavirus

#645 Post by mockbee » Fri May 01, 2020 11:36 am

That all sounds good.

As long as I can keep my properties, a good amount of liberties and can freely travel. I'm in... :thumb:

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 6879
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Coronavirus

#646 Post by Hype » Fri May 01, 2020 12:18 pm

There’s an argument to be made that AirBnB and its fallout in big tourism-heavy cities shows us that more regulation of multi-property owners and income-properties is needed to allow affordable housing and avoid the creation of these weird transitory neighbourhoods where no one actually lives there. This isn’t solved by nationalizing homes, but does suggest a need for way way more regulation.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2878
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Coronavirus

#647 Post by mockbee » Fri May 01, 2020 1:29 pm

That even works for me because I don't own anything that I am not the primary on. My mom is the primary on the country property and I wouldn't mind getting rid of the other undeveloped property in the city, or develop it with clustered (small scale) affordable housing.

AirBB is not good. Drove rents up in SF and my building turned into an SRO with all sorts of people in and out who didn't give a crap about the neighbors or property. :jasper:


I think with corona there is going to be a lot less travelling/vacationing due to restrictions and just less disposable income.

Also I was perusing the "regulations" in a draft report for oregon, and restaraunts here are not going to be recognizable if these restrictions pass. Half the customers allowed in. No waiting areas, have to wait in your car to dine in. Have to have a designated employee regulating bathroom use. Everyone wears masks (did make exception when you are actually eating.... :lolol: ) No preset tables. No multi use condiment containers/menus. No salad bars/buffets. Everything wiped down between each customer.

Glad I lost interest in restaurants before Covid. That's going to be brutal.... :tiphat:

Charles
Posts: 28
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:50 pm

Re: Coronavirus

#648 Post by Charles » Fri May 01, 2020 11:25 pm

Hype wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 12:18 pm
There’s an argument to be made that AirBnB and its fallout in big tourism-heavy cities shows us that more regulation of multi-property owners and income-properties is needed to allow affordable housing and avoid the creation of these weird transitory neighbourhoods where no one actually lives there. This isn’t solved by nationalizing homes, but does suggest a need for way way more regulation.
Amen

User avatar
Artemis
Posts: 9288
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm
Location: Toronto

Re: Coronavirus

#649 Post by Artemis » Sat May 02, 2020 4:25 am

Canada's numbers on May 1st.
The latest numbers of confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases in Canada as of 7:03 p.m. on May 1, 2020:

There are 55,061 confirmed and presumptive cases in Canada.

- Quebec: 28,648 confirmed (including 2,022 deaths, 6,700 resolved)


- Ontario: 16,608 confirmed (including 1,121 deaths, 10,825 resolved)

- Alberta: 5,573 confirmed (including 92 deaths, 2,359 resolved)

- British Columbia: 2,145 confirmed (including 112 deaths, 1,357 resolved)

- Nova Scotia: 959 confirmed (including 29 deaths, 592 resolved)

- Saskatchewan: 415 confirmed (including 6 deaths, 297 resolved)

- Manitoba: 268 confirmed (including 6 deaths, 235 resolved), 11 presumptive

- Newfoundland and Labrador: 259 confirmed (including 3 deaths, 230 resolved)

- New Brunswick: 118 confirmed (including 116 resolved)

- Prince Edward Island: 27 confirmed (including 24 resolved)

- Repatriated Canadians: 13 confirmed (including 13 resolved)

- Yukon: 11 confirmed (including 11 resolved)

- Northwest Territories: 5 confirmed (including 5 resolved)

- Nunavut: 1 confirmed


- Total: 55,061 (11 presumptive, 55,050 confirmed including 3,391 deaths, 22,764 resolved)

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2878
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Coronavirus

#650 Post by mockbee » Sat May 02, 2020 4:45 am

Have you been to Nunavut?

What's it like up there? Worth a swing by...? :noclue: :lol:

What's the farthest north you've been in Canada?



You have a four corners, where four provinces meet. SK, Manitoba, Nunavut and NW Ter. I got that right on jeopardy. I am good at Canadian Geo... :tiphat:

User avatar
Artemis
Posts: 9288
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm
Location: Toronto

Re: Coronavirus

#651 Post by Artemis » Sat May 02, 2020 5:30 am

mockbee wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 4:45 am
Have you been to Nunavut?

What's it like up there? Worth a swing by...? :noclue: :lol:

What's the farthest north you've been in Canada?



You have a four corners, where four provinces meet. SK, Manitoba, Nunavut and NW Ter. I got that right on jeopardy. I am good at Canadian Geo... :tiphat:
I haven't been very far north...I think Sudbury,ON is the most northerly place I've been.

Image

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2878
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Coronavirus

#652 Post by mockbee » Sat May 02, 2020 6:25 am

Artemis wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 5:30 am
mockbee wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 4:45 am
Have you been to Nunavut?

What's it like up there? Worth a swing by...? :noclue: :lol:

What's the farthest north you've been in Canada?



You have a four corners, where four provinces meet. SK, Manitoba, Nunavut and NW Ter. I got that right on jeopardy. I am good at Canadian Geo... :tiphat:
I haven't been very far north...I think Sudbury,ON is the most northerly place I've been.

Image
Sudbury! :yikes:

Seattle is farther north than Sudbury! (Let alone Vancouver :waits: )

Guess having been to Edmonton has me legions more closer to the arctic tundra than longtime Canadians. :hs: :conf:

Bringing back on topic....how the hell are there covid cases in NW Ter. amd Nanavut....?
This has to be reaaly, really contagious. I dont know why there is no much focus on surface contamination. It really seems aerosol is the culprit.

:noclue:

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7195
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Coronavirus

#653 Post by SR » Sat May 02, 2020 7:08 am

I think these rent revolts could get ugly

clickie
Posts: 3096
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:15 am

Re: Coronavirus

#654 Post by clickie » Sat May 02, 2020 8:31 am

Yeah landlords aren't going to show any mercy and it's about to become a problem

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7195
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Coronavirus

#655 Post by SR » Sat May 02, 2020 10:15 am

I am really concerned about the ripple effects of this thing. The very real possibilities in every sector are horrifying.....add human nature and voila, broken beyond repair.

User avatar
Artemis
Posts: 9288
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm
Location: Toronto

Re: Coronavirus

#656 Post by Artemis » Sat May 02, 2020 5:28 pm

mockbee wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 6:25 am


Sudbury! :yikes:

Seattle is farther north than Sudbury! (Let alone Vancouver :waits: )

Guess having been to Edmonton has me legions more closer to the arctic tundra than longtime Canadians. :hs: :conf:

Bringing back on topic....how the hell are there covid cases in NW Ter. amd Nanavut....?
This has to be reaaly, really contagious. I dont know why there is no much focus on surface contamination. It really seems aerosol is the culprit.

:noclue:
I haven't travelled much in Canada. I haven't been west of Ontario, been east though.

NWT cases were due to people who worked in BC then flew back home and spread it among their families. The Nunavit case is being investigated. It doesn't follow the typical scenarios of how COVID spreads.

User avatar
Artemis
Posts: 9288
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm
Location: Toronto

Re: Coronavirus

#657 Post by Artemis » Sat May 02, 2020 5:28 pm

mockbee wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 6:25 am


Sudbury! :yikes:

Seattle is farther north than Sudbury! (Let alone Vancouver :waits: )

Guess having been to Edmonton has me legions more closer to the arctic tundra than longtime Canadians. :hs: :conf:

Bringing back on topic....how the hell are there covid cases in NW Ter. amd Nanavut....?
This has to be reaaly, really contagious. I dont know why there is no much focus on surface contamination. It really seems aerosol is the culprit.

:noclue:
I haven't travelled much in Canada. I haven't been west of Ontario, been east though.

NWT cases were due to people who worked in BC then flew back home and spread it among their families. The Nunavit case is being investigated. It doesn't follow the typical scenarios of how COVID spreads.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2878
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Coronavirus

#658 Post by mockbee » Mon May 04, 2020 5:17 am

The Truth!

:nyrexall:

:no:

:crazy:

:yikes:

:lol:

:bored:

:wavesad:


Always loved Dave Eggers. :thumb:

Flattening the Truth on Coronavirus
All your questions about the pandemic, answered. Sort of.


By Dave Eggers
Mr. Eggers is a novelist and journalist.

May 3, 2020


The People (P): What is happening?

Answer (A): A virus has come.

P: Is it dangerous?

A: Very dangerous. But not dangerous to most. It strikes the elderly most viciously. But it can kill the middle-aged, the young, the thin, the healthy.

P: What should we do?

A: Stay away from others. Stay inside.

P: And then we won’t get the virus?

A: Absolutely you will get it. Everyone will get it.

P: Wait. No one told us this. They’re telling us to stay inside and we won’t get it.

A: Well, I’m telling you now. Almost everyone will get it. Seventy percent of you, give or take. Think about it. It’s everywhere, and there’s no vaccine. But we want everyone to get it at different times. Like on a schedule of getting it. At least five million people already have it in the United States.

P: Wait. Five million? Everyone says one million.

A: That’s the known, confirmed cases. We just started testing in earnest like, an hour ago. For every case we know, there’s five, 10, 50 that we don’t know. Maybe they got it and were asymptomatic. Maybe they got sick but not sick enough to go the hospital or get tested. Five million is an extremely low estimate of how many cases there are. It’s probably more like 20 million.


P: Twenty?

A: That’s good news! In a way. That means it’s less deadly to most people than we thought. And it proves the inevitability of you getting it yourself. So stay inside till it’s your turn to get it.

P: How long should we stay inside?

A: I’m thinking two months. No, three. Six? No, 12. Yes, 12!

P: Then it will be gone?

A: The virus? Lord no. It could be 18 months till we get a vaccine. But by then you’ll have already gotten it, so the date doesn’t really matter. Especially given that the virus will come back double-strong in the fall.

P: So it’s less potent in the summer?

A: Absolutely not. Who told you that?

P: You just said it’ll come back stronger in the fall. Which implies its power is dissipated in the summer.


A: Are you a doctor? No? Good. Then pay attention. The virus is everywhere, in every city and state, but we’re flattening the curve. Then it’ll very likely come back with a vengeance in the fall. Winter, too. Also, in the meantime, it’ll be with us all summer with probably no change in its potency. Capiche?

P: No one’s giving us this information.

A: Well, you know how we’re stretching out the cases over a longer period of time? Flattening the curve? We’re also flattening the truth. So just stay inside, and you’ll be fine. Order stuff online. Support your local restaurant.

P: Whew. OK. We can do that.

A: But do so knowing that you are putting the lives of everyone at risk — the cooks, the clerks, the delivery people. I’m actually a bit shocked by your selfishness and the cavalier way you’re sacrificing the lives of people who have no choice but to expose themselves to grave danger during a pandemic.

P: It sounds like you’re saying we shouldn’t order stuff to be delivered.

A: You shouldn’t. Unless you want local businesses to die.


P: So we should support local businesses …

A: Absolutely. While risking their workers’ lives. Yes. Order food, eat it, watch the news about the pandemic that can’t be stopped. Get plenty of sleep, and start smoking. Turns out smokers are less likely to get sick. Which only makes sense! So remember to exercise. Go for a run!

P: Where should we go for a run?

A: Ideally some place where you can spread out, where you aren’t in close proximity to other people.

P: Like the beach? A park?

A: Sure. Beaches and parks are wide-open spaces. They’re about as safe as you can be.

P: We just went to the beach and the park. There were hundreds of other people there.

A: You went to the beach? The park? What were you thinking? There are hundreds of people there! Go home. Be with your kids. Do you have kids?

P: Yes.

A: Well, make sure they keep up with school. Keep up with their worksheets and Zoom, and check their work, and keep them off screens, and go outside, and don’t worry about school. It’s a pandemic, after all.

P: Um. Many of the things you just said sound contradictory.

A: Not at all. I’ll rephrase: Your kids are living through a crisis. It’s all right if they feel anxious, or if you can’t maintain routines or keep up with regular school schedules. Just make sure they don’t fall behind, and remember that kids thrive on routine. So stick to a schedule, but give them space, and stay inside, and go outside, and use technology to connect with teachers and friends, and limit screen time.

P: Wait. So …

A: But enjoy some downtime together! Relax and watch a movie. Cook some food! Just don’t go to the stores, because that’s dangerous to everyone. Order in! But don’t. Stay home. Move to the country. And stay in the city. If you get sick, go to the hospital. But don’t get too sick, because you wouldn’t want to be going to one of those hospitals now! They’re full of sick people!

P: When did you say this would all end again?

A: Eighteen months. That said, the soonest we’ve ever come up with a vaccine was four years.



P: But everyone’s talking about reopening stores and everything now. How does that square with 18 months?

A: That’s easy. People will die.

P: Wait. What?

A: Oh sure. So many more. Oceans of people. Even just 1,500 a day for eighteen months means 800,000 in the U.S. alone will die from this virus. That’s what the Minnesota scientist says. Osterholm. He’s one of the foremost experts in the world. He’s been right every step of the way so far.

P: What? 800,000?

A: That’s if things stay more or less steady. It could be higher, much higher. With the easing of restrictions and all.

P: But isn’t the rate of death declining?

A: Friday was one of the deadliest days yet! And that’s after everyone’s been inside for a month. Once everyone goes back to work, it’ll probably go up significantly. Total blood bath.


P: So why are we easing restrictions?

A: Something something the economy?

P: Excuse me?

A: Mumble mumble the economy maybe?

P: We don’t understand.

A: Listen. People are fatigued. They want to go back to work. They want to shop. More than anything, they want to roll balls toward white pins and make loud bang-bang sound. And then possibly end up with a tube inserted in their trachea, helping them breathe while their lungs cease to function, until they almost invariably die and die alone.

P: Why don’t we just freeze the economy? Just close most businesses and have the government give everyone a living wage while we wait until there’s a vaccine?

A: Hmm. First of all, ridiculous. Second, that would take significant coordination between local, state and federal governments.


P: Can we do that?

A: Well. I don’t know … I mean … OK. For starters, we’d need superadvanced ways to coordinate everyone. We’d certainly need phones. Maybe email. We might even need spreadsheets and/or computers.

P: Do we have all those things?

A: I think we … might? But there are still so many questions. Like, how would we know who to give money to? We’d have to have a national database with all the salaries of all the nation’s workers.

P: Don’t we have that? Seems like we could get that.

A: Here’s another plan: We promise money to pretty much every person and every business. We give this money to maybe half the people, and to a very small percentage of businesses. We let big banks control most of this money meant for small businesses, and the big banks can funnel it to their biggest clients.

P: That sounds terrible.

A: Those big banks sure know how to handle cash!

P: It seems it would just be easier to give people the exact salaries they had before they lost their jobs to one of the deadliest viruses in 100 years. Just freeze everything. Just mutually agree to pause, together, so we don’t have to lose 730,000 more souls.



A: First of all: boring. Where’s the intrigue? The drama? With our system, you have wave after wave of unemployment, with no end in sight. Every week brings something new: business closures, bankruptcies and ruptures of the supply chain — a never-ending, cascading, domino-orgy of lost savings, empty storefronts and shattered dreams. That’s much more exciting than some boring old guaranteed income that would allow everyone to simply ride out the pandemic knowing their jobs and businesses would be there when the virus was defeated.

P: So there’s no plan.

A: Having no plan is the plan! Haven’t you been listening? Plans are for commies and the Danish. Here we do it fast and loose and dumb and wrong, and occasionally we have a man who manufactures pillows come to the White House to show the president encouraging texts. It all works! Eighteen months, 800,000 deaths, no plan, states bidding against states for medicine and equipment, you’re on your own, plans are lame.

P: I’m going to lie down. I don’t feel good.

A: Should we sing a patriotic song? I feel like our forebears would be so proud of us now. It’s just like how we all pulled together in World War II, every element of society, from the White House to Rosie the Riveter, with common purpose and shared sacrifice. This is just like that, except instead of coordination, we have competition, and instead of common cause, we have acrimony and chaos. Instead of fireside chats, F.D.R. and Churchill, we have tweets, Lysol and Ron DeSantis. Other than that, it’s exactly the same.

Dave Eggers is the founder of McSweeney’s and the author of “The Captain and the Glory,” among other books.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 2878
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Coronavirus

#659 Post by mockbee » Mon May 04, 2020 5:47 am

SR wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 10:15 am
I am really concerned about the ripple effects of this thing. The very real possibilities in every sector are horrifying.....add human nature and voila, broken beyond repair.
Yup. This is going to permanently change everything. Unless it just magically goes away in 6 mos. I think the question is, will it be bigger than WWII, or even WWI...!?

I think human nature is alright. We're actually pretty smart/resourceful when given time and liberty. Look at the shit we have figured out.....

I mean technology and industrialization is not only deadly and oppressive....it is also astoundingly complex and brilliant......:noclue:

User avatar
Larry B.
Posts: 7173
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:25 am
Location: Back in Santiago.

Re: Coronavirus

#660 Post by Larry B. » Mon May 04, 2020 7:54 am

I've invested the last 5 years of my life moving into football coaching.

Fucking great. :balls:

Post Reply