Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

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Who is going to win the election - Nov 3 2020 Biden or Trump.....?

BIDEN - without a doubt, he has gained the confidence of the country. Trump has given up and has no chance.
3
15%
Most likely Biden - greater than 75% chance. He is a flawed candidate but I really don't see him losing at this point.
9
45%
Hard to tell still, a lot can happen.....could really go both ways still.
5
25%
Most likely Trump - greater than 75% chance. He is a flawed candidate but I really don't see him losing at this point.
1
5%
TRUMP - without a doubt, he is a master manipulator and persuader. Biden is completely incompetent and/or incapable at this point.
2
10%
 
Total votes: 20

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mockbee
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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#21 Post by mockbee » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:59 pm

If there is confusion about the polling leading up to the election tomorrow. This article lays it out pretty well, what is going on.

Maybe it's total garbage.....but also, maybe not.

Not every strong Trump supporter is an obnoxious idiot in a truck, or rabid racist at a Trump rally. In fact, many, the vast majority are not, and are told to be very ashamed of themselves, by pretty much all of the elites (media/leaders of industry/entertainment/academia/elected politicians - especially democrats, but lots of republicans as well/etc) in this country.
I can understand why they would not want to speak/tell the truth to pollsters.
:noclue:
The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win

Robert Cahaly’s polls have Arizona, Michigan and Florida in the president’s column. It’s hard to find another pollster who agrees with him. But they didn’t believe him in 2016 either.
Image

The pollster Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group on his set at Inirtia Studios in Atlanta. Mr. Cahaly’s polling firm most effectively predicted the outcome of the 2016 election.

By Giovanni Russonello and Sarah Lyall

Nov. 2, 2020

If President Trump pieces together an Electoral College win on Tuesday, at least one pollster — and perhaps only one — will be able to say, “I told you so.”

That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead.

Trafalgar does not disclose its methods, and is considered far too shadowy by other pollsters to be taken seriously. Mostly, they dismiss it as an outlier. But for Mr. Cahaly, “I told you so” is already a calling card.

In 2016, its first time publicly releasing polls, Trafalgar was the firm whose state surveys most effectively presaged Mr. Trump’s upset win. A veteran Republican strategist, Mr. Cahaly even called the exact number of Electoral College votes that Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton would receive — 306 to 227 — although his prediction of which states would get them there was just slightly off.

So with liberal anxieties flaring over whether to trust the polls, the gregarious, goatee-and-bowtie-wearing Mr. Cahaly has been in demand on cable news lately. In addition to frequent appearances on Fox News, Mr. Cahaly was on CNN last week, explaining to Michael Smerconish why he thought the president would walk away with an easy victory — and defending himself against a battery of critiques that Mr. Smerconish called up, one by one, from Mr. Cahaly’s peers.

Amid a crush of pre-election media coverage seeking his theory of the case — it drove more than 1.5 million clicks to Trafalgar’s site on Monday, he said — the big question seems to be: Is it possible to believe a guy whose polls consistently give Mr. Trump just enough support for a narrow lead in most swing states, and who refuses to reveal much of anything about how he gets his data?

In his last few polls of this election season, Mr. Cahaly has found Mr. Trump with two-to-three-point advantages in North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan and Florida, and wider leads elsewhere. That puts him far out of line with almost all major pollsters, whose surveys in those states are generally showing Mr. Biden with the edge. As different as things are this year, it’s hard to miss the echo of 2016, when Trafalgar occupied a similarly lonely position on the eve of Nov. 8.

Above all, Mr. Cahaly’s approach centers on the belief that everyone lies, but especially conservatives. This has largely been disproved by social science, but that hasn’t softened his conviction. To hear him explain it, traditional pollsters (he calls them “dinosaurs”) are crippled by “social desirability bias”: the tendency for respondents to say what they think an interviewer wants to hear, not what they actually believe. In Mr. Trump’s America, he says, that problem has grown worse.

“I just think people are not what they say they are, ever,” Mr. Cahaly said in a recent phone interview from Atlanta, where he lives. “We cannot eliminate the social desirability bias, we can only minimize it.”

Four years ago, he addressed this by asking people both whom they would support for president and whom they thought their neighbors would support. This year, he said, he is using other means to achieve the same result.

But he’s not saying what they are. Mr. Cahaly releases almost no real explanation of his polling methodology; the methods page on Trafalgar’s website contains what reads like a vague advertisement of its services and explains that its polls actively confront social desirability bias, without giving specifics as to how. He says that he uses a mixture of text messages, emails and phone calls — some automated, and some by live callers — to reach an accurate representation of the electorate.

Conventional pollsters, who abide by long-tested and broadly effective methods to glean a representative sample, aren’t buying it. Besides, if there was ever such a thing as a “shy Trump supporter” — someone reluctant to admit that he or she plans to vote for the president — that species has been made virtually extinct during the raucous, rally-holding Trump presidency, said Daniel Cox, a polling and public opinion expert at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute.

“People do not seem embarrassed to support Mr. Trump,” Mr. Cox said. In the past four years, studies seeking to quantify a so-called “shy Trump” effect in surveys have generally found little evidence to support it.

Late last month, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight got his hands on the cross tabs of a Trafalgar poll of Michigan that was still in progress. It found that more than a quarter of Democrats and Republicans expected to vote for the other party’s nominee, so far out of line with almost all other polls that Mr. Silver called the numbers “just crazy.”

Mr. Cahaly, of course, has no use for the skepticism of experts. He doesn’t seem to care whether he’s abiding by the best practices of the American Association of Public Opinion Research, the standard-bearing trade organization, any more than Mr. Trump says he cares whether the United States’ NATO allies respect him.

Among his polling colleagues, the main sticking point is Mr. Cahaly’s lack of transparency about his methods.

Josh Pasek, a professor of communications, data and political science at the University of Michigan, said that without a sense of the methods the firm uses to reach survey respondents, it’s not possible to rely on the numbers.

“It is wildly inappropriate not to tell me, not only what modes you use to draw your sample, but how specifically you did it,” he said. His general rule: “If somebody’s not transparent you can generally assume they’re crap.”

There is something undeniably enticing about the story of a swashbuckling, norm-busting Southern pollster who rode into 2016 with a fresh approach and proved all the bigger shops wrong. Born in Georgia and raised in upstate South Carolina by a banker and a teacher, Mr. Cahaly developed a politics obsession as a child and majored in it at the University of South Carolina. He soon came under the wing of the pollster Rod Shealy, an acolyte of the Republican strategist Lee Atwater, and eventually started his own firm.

Named after a battle in the Napoleonic Wars when the British navy turned back French and Spanish ships on the high seas, Trafalgar, which he runs alone, has been doing surveys on behalf of clients since 2006.

Most of Trafalgar’s polling is done for conservative and Republican clients, although — in another snub of traditional standards — it has not reliably revealed when surveys are paid for by partisan interests.

In 2010, Mr. Cahaly was arrested and taken to court for violating a law against using automatic calling machines — known as robocalling — to conduct polls. The charges against him were eventually dropped, and he later successfully sued a state law enforcement agency, causing South Carolina’s prohibition on robocalls to be declared unconstitutional.

Mr. Cahaly said he was doing legitimate polling, aimed at truly understanding voters’ opinions — and getting what he called “dead-on” results. During the 2016 Republican primaries, he was early to spot a surge of enthusiasm from many working-class voters who had long felt alienated from politics and helped power Mr. Trump’s ascent.

“I kept getting these stories about people who showed up to vote and didn’t know how to use the voting machines, they hadn’t voted in so long,” Mr. Cahaly said. So he began to look into who those people might be, and used data available online to create a list of roughly 50 lifestyle characteristics — including, for instance, whether they owned a fishing license — to identify the sorts of low-engagement voters who were turning out in droves. He used that data to make sure he was reaching the right kinds of respondents as he polled off the voter file in advance of the general election.

In 2018, Mr. Cahaly again amassed a successful track record polling Senate and governors’ races, including surveys that correctly presaged Ron DeSantis’s and Rick Scott’s wins in Florida.

This year, he has continued to see strong Trump support among these voters, and he believes other pollsters are again underestimating their importance. Among Mr. Cahaly’s theories is that it takes five times as many calls to get a conservative voter to complete a poll than to get a liberal one. Others in the field say they find no evidence to support this in their own work.

But Mr. Cahaly insists it is presumptuous for pollsters to assume that they are drawing a representative sample of voters just because they are adhering to the scientific method. He returns to the country’s political divide, and how unwilling Americans are nowadays to communicate with each other from across the breach of suspicion. In a sense, he has positioned himself as a bard of Trumpism, giving voice to a silent majority — or at least, a majority in the Electoral College — that knows the elites consider its views deplorable, and therefore won’t express them freely to just anyone.

“Lee Atwater drilled into everyone around me that you have to get out of the head of politicos and into the head of Joe Six-Pack,” Mr. Cahaly said. “What do the average people think? And to do that I like to talk to average people. I like to follow up polling calls and chat with people for 30 minutes.”

Mr. Cahaly feels no need to reveal his techniques, despite the near-universal doubt about his work from his peers. “I’ve given away enough; I’m not giving away any more,” he said, arguing that it had been a mistake to even tell the public about his “neighbor question,” which some other firms have since adopted in their own surveys.

“I think we’ve developed something that’s very different from what other people do, and I really am not interested in telling people how we do it,” he said. “Just judge us by whether we get it right.”

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drwintercreeper
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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#22 Post by drwintercreeper » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:48 am

That clown was on fox yesterday talking about voter fraud in philly without any evidence. Maybe its true; maybe its also true that vladimir putin gives amazing head. I dont know, but it sure sounds true to me. Fuck the the need for evidence i guess.

Also, he wears a bow tie. Fuck that tie. That guy needs to man up and grow a my pillow guy mustache if he wants to be taken seriously.

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Artemis
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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#23 Post by Artemis » Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:33 am

I hope my neighbours to the south do the right thing today and vote that giant, orange piece of poo OUT!!


Image

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Bandit72
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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#24 Post by Bandit72 » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:34 am

I understand this
A president must be at least 35 years old, a "natural born US citizen" and a US resident for at least 14 years, according to the US Constitution - the country's founding charter.

Most candidates have a background in politics and have held an elected position, like senator, governor, vice-president, or member of Congress.

But they also occasionally come from the military, like former Army General Dwight Eisenhower, or the business world like Donald Trump, a former real estate developer and reality TV star.

Most modern candidates hold university degrees and over half the US presidents graduated in law.
So can I ask dumb question? How the fuck did the US get to a position of choice with these two? Granted one is probably better than the other, but isn't there ANYONE out there even remotely better? I would have thought it would have been one of the most sought after jobs ever.

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mockbee
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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#25 Post by mockbee » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:34 am

Bandit72 wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:34 am
I understand this
A president must be at least 35 years old, a "natural born US citizen" and a US resident for at least 14 years, according to the US Constitution - the country's founding charter.

Most candidates have a background in politics and have held an elected position, like senator, governor, vice-president, or member of Congress.

But they also occasionally come from the military, like former Army General Dwight Eisenhower, or the business world like Donald Trump, a former real estate developer and reality TV star.

Most modern candidates hold university degrees and over half the US presidents graduated in law.
So can I ask dumb question? How the fuck did the US get to a position of choice with these two? Granted one is probably better than the other, but isn't there ANYONE out there even remotely better? I would have thought it would have been one of the most sought after jobs ever.

In my estimation, only a megalomaniac would ever want to be president of the united states. This would disqualify the majority of people who really care about policy and people's lives, and truly making a difference.

Seems pretty apt so far in our history.
:noclue:


I would say Carter was not a megalomaniac, but the general consensus is that he wasn't a good president. He cared a little too much and didn't have a big enough ego.

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#26 Post by Bandit72 » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:40 pm

Was Obama not half decent? Or at least the better man of modern times? Carter is probably the furthest back I remember but don't remember much about him. I was at school throughout the Reagan/Thatcher years but never paid attention to US politics or politics in general.

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mockbee
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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#27 Post by mockbee » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:31 pm

Obama was very decent, even good compared to the alternatives, certainly.

But in campaigning for president, his shtick bordered on the absurd. He was definitely promoting himself in a manner befitting celebrity/megalomaniac status. John Stewart and other liberals mocked him mercilessly for it. Was he really that narcissistic? Who knows, but he was smart enough to know he had to present himself that way to win.

I think his decency is actually what restricted him from getting a lot more done. He had faith in people's goodness. Pols and many Americans stomped on that, and he reacted accordingly, either giving in (to his downfall) or making executive orders (to his successes)
:noclue:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#28 Post by kv » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:06 pm

So gimmie that tinhat gif cut to size pls ty :banghead:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#29 Post by Hokahey » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:21 pm

Trump wins again. What a piece of shit country.

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#30 Post by drwintercreeper » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:25 pm

It aint over yet. Rust belt cote isnt in.... we will not know until we know michigan, Wisconsin.... penn will still ciubt votes until friday... its halftime yall

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#31 Post by mockbee » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:31 pm

kv wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:06 pm
So gimmie that tinhat gif cut to size pls ty :banghead:
Not over yet.....


:noclue: :wink:


But not looking good for Biden... :wavesad:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#32 Post by drwintercreeper » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:41 pm

It all boils down to Nevada michigan and Wisconsin. I think Biden is gonna win. Mail in vote is counted last in Wisconsin and michigan as far as i know. Everyone relax. Cheeto is fucked.

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#33 Post by drwintercreeper » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:09 am

Sounds like georgia may go to biden. Cheeto is gonna speak soon. This is gonna be so delicious.

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#34 Post by clickie » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:45 am

Feels like a long time

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#35 Post by clickie » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:05 pm

Even the looters are stuck in a stand still

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#36 Post by mockbee » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:25 pm

Last night was the first time I have watched the "news" for more than a minute or two in a row (and usually that's because someone else is watching and I am devising an exit strategy) in maybe 2 or 3 years, maybe the last election in '16.
:noclue:

I think I made it two hours in a row. :tiphat:

What a steaming pile of crap we have devised as "information" gathering and distribution. The mass media, all of it, has utterly failed to do their job. :mad:

Polls are obviously crap and the amount of time spent on conjecture and hyperbole and blatantly pulling garbage out of their own asses was mind boggling. :lol:


My plan is to take a day or two off and check back then. It is amazingly simple to catch up with events in a matter of a minute or two after a 12 to 24 hour hiatus.



Outside in nature, if at all possible, is the place to be.....
:rockon:

Here's to hoping for a fair, expedient and accepted outcome
:scared:

:thumb: :tiphat:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#37 Post by kv » Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:12 pm

drwintercreeper wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:41 pm
It all boils down to Nevada michigan and Wisconsin. I think Biden is gonna win. Mail in vote is counted last in Wisconsin and michigan as far as i know. Everyone relax. Cheeto is fucked.
I never expected michigan to go blue...gogogo nevada!

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#38 Post by chaos » Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:50 pm


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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#39 Post by mockbee » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:54 pm

Okay.....who just voted for Most Likely Biden....well beyond 24 hours after the last polls closed.


:lolol: :lolol: :lolol:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#40 Post by Bandit72 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:00 am

Is it possible for it to end in a 'draw'?

A bit like we can have a hung parliament?

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