Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

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chaos
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Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#1 Post by chaos » Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:27 am

Elizabeth Warren has thrown her hat into the ring. (Well she has taken it off her head - she is forming an exploratory committee.)

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SR
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#2 Post by SR » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:49 am

This is going to be a long thread.

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Pandemonium
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#3 Post by Pandemonium » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:55 am

chaos wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:27 am
Elizabeth Warren has thrown her hat into the ring. (Well she has taken it off her head - she is forming an exploratory committee.)
Warren is not The One. Neither is Beto. Maybe Joe Biden. Dems need to find someone who can appeal to the mainstream and moderate republicans who aren't Trump fans, not cater solely to the far Left to win in 2020.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#4 Post by guysmiley » Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:34 am

So the shit show is starting already? I might finally quit facebook.

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Hokahey
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#5 Post by Hokahey » Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:23 pm

Pandemonium wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:55 am
chaos wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:27 am
Elizabeth Warren has thrown her hat into the ring. (Well she has taken it off her head - she is forming an exploratory committee.)
Warren is not The One. Neither is Beto. Maybe Joe Biden. Dems need to find someone who can appeal to the mainstream and moderate republicans who aren't Trump fans, not cater solely to the far Left to win in 2020.
Beto is more moderate than you realize, and absolutely appeals to the mainstream. He's nowhere near the far left.

I bet he gets the nod.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#6 Post by Juana » Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:00 pm

Beto is very moderate just not for TX but he still did a shit ton better than anyone really expected him to out here

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Hype
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#7 Post by Hype » Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:52 am

No one in American politics is anywhere near the "Far Left". There are no Trotskyists or followers of Hugo Chavez in mainstream American politics. The radical religious and economic right, on the other hand have conspired to make moderates and centrists look extreme. It's insane for anyone not in that bubble.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#8 Post by drwintercreeper » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:49 pm

My money is on Beto or Biden with Beto as VP. Warren is a non-starter and I don't think Kamala Harris (as much as I like her resume) comes off as warm or super-likable. Of course, everything could change as new people enter the race but I don't think Castro or anyone else so far shows he or she is that candidate.

We shall see.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#9 Post by mockbee » Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:28 pm

If AOC were ten years older, I think she would have a very good chance of beating Trump if she made it past the minefield Democratic nomination process. She is brilliantly media savy.

The Democrats need a young, intelligent, media savvy/celebrity candidate to win the nomination in order to stand a chance against Trump. Otherwise, I see 4-8-12 more years of Trump if he's up against a stale has been like Biden/Kerry/etc. The Democrat needs to suck up all the oxygen.

Clinton almost pulled it out because people were honestly terrified of what Trump would do. Now people on the fence just see an ineffectual idiot. A Democrat will not win by just screaming "RACIST IDIOT!" and leaning on the "working families" trope.

The democrats lost seats in the Senate after 2 years of Trump. They lost seats! You look at '94, '02, '10... Big party swings, many bigger than '18...only for that party to loose in the next presidential reelection.

I think if its boring against Trump, Trump wins, if its strange with an insurgent democratic candidate, Trump might loose. Not saying this is good, its just what I see happening. Stuffs crazy and it will get crazier.
:noclue:

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Hype
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#10 Post by Hype » Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:59 am

mockbee wrote:
Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:28 pm
If AOC were ten years older, I think she would have a very good chance of beating Trump if she made it past the minefield Democratic nomination process. She is brilliantly media savy.

The Democrats need a young, intelligent, media savvy/celebrity candidate to win the nomination in order to stand a chance against Trump. Otherwise, I see 4-8-12 more years of Trump if he's up against a stale has been like Biden/Kerry/etc. The Democrat needs to suck up all the oxygen.

Clinton almost pulled it out because people were honestly terrified of what Trump would do. Now people on the fence just see an ineffectual idiot. A Democrat will not win by just screaming "RACIST IDIOT!" and leaning on the "working families" trope.

The democrats lost seats in the Senate after 2 years of Trump. They lost seats! You look at '94, '02, '10... Big party swings, many bigger than '18...only for that party to loose in the next presidential reelection.

I think if its boring against Trump, Trump wins, if its strange with an insurgent democratic candidate, Trump might loose. Not saying this is good, its just what I see happening. Stuffs crazy and it will get crazier.
:noclue:
AOC is where Obama was in 2000. :nod:

I have serious doubts that Trump could win again, because all signs are pointing to working-class folk finally realizing the direct economic impact of this moron on their lives. I guess it really does depend on who the Dems put up, and whether they can properly convert Clinton-like overall numbers to electoral college votes this time.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#11 Post by kv » Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:16 pm

I have yet to speak with a single person I know who voted for trump, who doesn't want him back...limited group of people but it's still shocking to me

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chaos
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#12 Post by chaos » Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:12 pm

Yawn . . .

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_candidates,_2020

Notable declared candidates and exploratory committees
The following elected officials have filed to run for president with the Federal Election Commission or announced exploratory committees.

Julian Castro (D), a former U.S. secretary of housing and urban development and San Antonio mayor, formally announced his candidacy on January 12, 2019.[2]
John Delaney (D), a former U.S. representative from Maryland, filed to run for president on August 10, 2017.
Tulsi Gabbard (D), a U.S. representative from Hawaii, announced that she had decided to run for president on January 11, 2019.[3]
Kirsten Gillibrand (D), a U.S. senator from New York, announced that she was running for president on January 15, 2019.[1]
Richard Ojeda (D), a state senator from West Virginia, filed to run for president on November 11, 2018.
Elizabeth Warren (D), U.S. senator from Massachusetts, announced she had formed an exploratory committee on December 31, 2018.[5]

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#13 Post by mockbee » Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:26 pm

The middle who actually vote is indifferent to Trump.
Their lives have been going to shit for the last 10-20-30 years, the last 2 aren't going to change their minds.

I think '20 will be much, much harder than '16 for democrats to do well.

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Hype
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#14 Post by Hype » Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:16 pm

kv wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:16 pm
I have yet to speak with a single person I know who voted for trump, who doesn't want him back...limited group of people but it's still shocking to me
No government employees? That's a pretty massive group of people to lose.

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mockbee
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#15 Post by mockbee » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:30 pm

Trumps approval has jumped substantially with Hispanics, especially since the shutdown.

Border wall is overall winning issue with many Hispanics. :noclue:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 37382.html

Trumps approval is the same as Reagan, Obama and Clinton prior to their reelection.

Many federal employees blame Dems/Pelosi for the shutdown, and most were dems to begin with, so no loss.

Its really crazy the silos everyone is in. Americans are on different planets from each other.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#16 Post by mockbee » Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:03 pm

chaos wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:12 pm
Yawn . . .

https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_candidates,_2020

Notable declared candidates and exploratory committees
The following elected officials have filed to run for president with the Federal Election Commission or announced exploratory committees.

Julian Castro (D), a former U.S. secretary of housing and urban development and San Antonio mayor, formally announced his candidacy on January 12, 2019.[2]
John Delaney (D), a former U.S. representative from Maryland, filed to run for president on August 10, 2017.
Tulsi Gabbard (D), a U.S. representative from Hawaii, announced that she had decided to run for president on January 11, 2019.[3]
Kirsten Gillibrand (D), a U.S. senator from New York, announced that she was running for president on January 15, 2019.[1]
Richard Ojeda (D), a state senator from West Virginia, filed to run for president on November 11, 2018.
Elizabeth Warren (D), U.S. senator from Massachusetts, announced she had formed an exploratory committee on December 31, 2018.[5]
Okay, okay.

How about Jon Tester, if he just spent the campaign tweeting from his tractor about how he has no time for this nonsense, I think he would stand a chance. Trump really, really wanted him to loose his senate seat. Then Castro or Beto as VP.
:noclue:

Or Benioff, if he ran I think he would win, but not necessarily get the dem nomination.

I think Warren made a big mistake with the dna test.

We need someone who laughs at trump and generally ignores him.

AOC 2024

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#17 Post by creep » Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:24 pm

If the economy stays healthy I think Trump will be reelected. He probably won't win the popular vote again.

Gavin Newsom in 2024? :noclue:

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Hype
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#18 Post by Hype » Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:16 pm

Many federal employees blame Dems/Pelosi for the shutdown, and most were dems to begin with, so no loss.
Why are you so certain about that? Do you have a poll / data that shows any of that, or is it just a feeling? I don't think it's obvious. I think it's likely that a lot of low-level government workers are Republican.

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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#19 Post by mockbee » Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:00 pm

It does look like Dem/Rep representation by district is roughly split in half for Federal employees, and rural/republican areas have a much higher percentage of employees impacted. So yeah who knows how it will play out. Tribal affiliations are pretty strong though and people have a pretty high tolerance for making excuses.
:noclue:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... l-workers/

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Hype
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Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#20 Post by Hype » Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:19 am

mockbee wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:00 pm
It does look like Dem/Rep representation by district is roughly split in half for Federal employees, and rural/republican areas have a much higher percentage of employees impacted. So yeah who knows how it will play out. Tribal affiliations are pretty strong though and people have a pretty high tolerance for making excuses.
:noclue:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... l-workers/
Nice link. I agree with you about the tribal recalcitrance. Obviously that could mean even those worst affected by this current situation don't change their minds (or just don't even vote). But this does seem an order of magnitude more direct in people's lives than, say, healthcare, since this isn't just very sick people who need expensive treatment who are affected (and old people who are confused about whether medicare is socialized medicine), but a huge segment of the working public and their families. :noclue:

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