Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

Discussion relating to current events, politics, religion, etc
Message
Author
User avatar
chaos
Posts: 5024
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:23 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#51 Post by chaos » Mon Apr 22, 2019 5:53 pm

And then there were 19 . . .

Image

Image
2020 Democratic presidential candidates are seen in a combination of file photos (L-R top row): U.S. Senators Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, and Kirsten Gillibrand. (L-R middle row): Former Texas congressman Beto O'Rourke, U.S. Representatives Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Eric Swalwell, Tim Ryan, and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro. (L-R bottom row): Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Former Gov. John Hickenlooper, Gov. Jay Inslee, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, and Mayor Wayne Messam. REUTERS/Files
Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#52 Post by mockbee » Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:51 pm

Jeb... I mean JOE has entered the race!


And he's already called anita to say he's sorry. :conf:

Well, it should be amusing anyways......:eyes:

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7840
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#53 Post by SR » Fri Apr 26, 2019 7:46 am

That long article on Bet read like a Russian bot/prop piece. There is a massive divide in the Dem party, obviously. There is danger in amplifying the Trump narratives and providing fuel for new ones, but only in the states that put him over the top. Obviously any candidate has to work hard there. Trump still enjoys around a 90% approval rating among Republicans nationally. Young people are key again as are the supporters of the candidates that are polling in the 8% range. Kamala's and Beto's base are needed as well. She very well could become a running mate to either Bernie or Biden. I see the kiddos screaming for generational change will side with Bernie after seeing (or being reminded of) the disastrous results of their revolt in '16. Still a ton of time. I am firmly with Bernie unless someone else gets the nod, then "meh"

Yang's support could be very useful as well. Though a small sample to draw any scientific conclusions, my son's friends from UCLA all really like him, but they also hold Bernie in high regard....still.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#54 Post by mockbee » Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:26 am

As much as I hate Trump and his brand of bigoted crony capitalism, I just don't see Bernie doing well against him.

Both Bernie and Warren are playing a very short game.
Overburden students and their parents who took loans they cannot repay is a terrible injustice in our system. But outright forgiveness will just create massive divisions between those that struggled and did and/or plan to pay their loans and those that are in trouble. The long game is way more complicated than either Bernie and Warren are making it out to be. This is true for most of their policies.

This is the map I see if Bernie is the Dem candidate. :noclue:
(in fact, I think I am being a little kind to Bernie in this map, I could definitely see Virginia and Colorado go to Trump)

Image

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7840
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#55 Post by SR » Fri Apr 26, 2019 3:03 pm

I see your point, but the backlash from people not included in forgiveness is a bit like lamenting those who avoided polio because of Dr. Salk. Bernie's policies are not new and they gained a great deal of traction back in the '16 race...so much so that other major candidates have eagerly adopted them. I don't want to get to burdened down with this single policy, but NYU med school has established an endowment that will pay for every medical student it ever trains in perpetuity. The state of Tennessee, an immovable conservative state, has started free college for those who have never received training otherwise with fantastic results. Radicalism has been a proven winning formula as trump has demonstrated. Moderates like Biden will have some work cut out for them in terms of attempting to indoctrinate the new, younger progressives. As I said earlier, I hope they have learned a lesson from '16.

Time will tell. Bernie is about 6 1/2 points behind Biden on the day after his announcement. The map you displayed is from Realclearpolitics if I'm not mistaken and as far as polling goes, they seem to represent the most diverse representation of polls state and nationwide.

Women and college educated men are key to disrupting Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, and maybe (though not likely) Ohio.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#56 Post by mockbee » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:44 pm

Tennessee free college is a good example to follow. However, relying on lottery dollars effectively is a huge regressive tax. That came about in 2014, a couple years before Bernie was on the national radar.
Even though it is popular, I rather doubt implementing Tennessee Promise today would work in that state because of our messed up tribal politics. :noclue:

If Bernie just stuck with free college as a workforce development plan, that is a winner.
Pell grant ($6,095/yr) to anyone that applies to the public school/community college of your choice, with incentives to stay in state, close to home.

Here is $50,000 forgiveness for college (Warren's plan) for the sake of going to college, no good.

I would actually say "fairness" is a huge issue, it is the defining issue why people vote.
Flat out handouts to 'elites' who can "afford" fancy schools would go over very poorly with working class folks.

Here is a comment about Warren's plan that makes a lot of sense.
I recently finished paying off my student debt. I know all about the obscenity of the exploding cost of college and the inability to refinance loans. I also grew up in the suburbs that every pundit says is so key for Democrats to take the White House in 2020. In fact my parents' Congressional district was among those that flipped red to blue this last midterm. Let me assure you: a plan to simply forgive student debt is going to play VERY badly with these voters. These are people who have typically benefited from structural advantages far more than they care to admit (my parents are your typical "everything I have is because of my own hard work" mentality, which obviously is easy to say when you were born into these very same well-to-do suburbs). Blatant handouts are met with knee-jerk repulsion. Tell the neighbors I grew up with that their tax dollars will go to bail out someone who took out $100k to go student Russian Literature at NYU and then -shock!- didn't spin that into a 6 figure salary, and watch these suburban voters swing right back to Trump en masse. What would play better to these voters? Solutions that reward hard work. Some loan forgiveness for legitimate community service. An interest plan where interest grows a bit each year, rather than slamming new graduates with the full rate and not giving them a moment to breathe. Incentives for paying off more than your monthly due. There must be other creative solutions to this, but handouts aren't the answer.

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7840
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#57 Post by SR » Sat Apr 27, 2019 5:56 am

I think his/her argument is horrible, but I do understand that bitterness forged from comparisons to unknown people who share the planet is a thing. It did make me think that EW could be as polarizing as HC. Lock Them Up! :balls: :boobs: :balls:

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#58 Post by mockbee » Sat Apr 27, 2019 11:34 am

I think this gets to the heart of divide here.

Is anyone who sacrifices to play by the rules that are rigged against them and struggles, but gets by, and then questions why those that are more privileged than themselves would receive massive assistance a bad/bitter person?

Understanding that nuance I think would go a huge way towards workable progress. :noclue:

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7840
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#59 Post by SR » Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:54 am

Mind you, I am not advocating for the top 1%, or 5, or 25 to seek and obtain free rides to the exclusion of qualified financially stressed populations. But I think that anyone who laments the implementation of a new policy that helps promote more equality and furthers education for a significantly underserved portion of the country is an ass, even if they missed the change. among the countless lessons this prez has taught us, one is that the underserved need a stronger voice. My kiddo had an amazing record in HS and went to a top 10 school worldwide. He had no scholarships and I paid every dime out of pocket. 0 concerns....in some ways, this position of "fairness" borders on schadenfreude.

:edit: But I do understand how this could very well hurt an advocate of this position in the General E. :balls:

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#60 Post by mockbee » Sun Apr 28, 2019 2:59 pm

I am also not saying that Warren's plan is fundamentally unworkable or unnecessary. Certainly something needs to be done to relieve debt and offer more opportunity. But it does need to be clear how it addresses the long term structural problems with higher education. In 10 years a 4-year state degree will cost over $200,000.

There are purely petty people out there, and I am not concerned about them, the dems don't need them to win. I am saying there are still many, many people who still believe, whether rightly or wrongly, we live in a meritocracy (surely we all do in some respect, or else why even bother with a degree, and surely we don't, what an enigma :neutral: ) and it needs to be clear something like debt forgiveness is path towards a fix, and not just a populist move. To call them purely petty as well is a mistake.

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7840
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#61 Post by SR » Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:40 am

A meritocracy would be nice :wave:

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#62 Post by mockbee » Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:56 am

Yeah, then we could all vote republican :rockon:

:lol:

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 7028
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#63 Post by Hype » Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:36 pm

SR wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:40 am
A meritocracy would be nice :wave:
We've been trying to figure that one out since Plato's Republic (and Zeno's Republic! And Thomas More's Utopia... and on and on...) -- Never going to happen. And it couldn't ever happen. There just isn't a way to set up a system that always only relies on merit alone. The difficulty of politics is maneuvering within on-the-ground power structures and figuring out ways to operate effectively at the wide social level for as long as possible, as stably as possible, doing or supporting or allowing as much good as possible. Managing the ways in which the stable and the good interact within societies at different levels (local, state, federal) and internationally is just insanely complicated. There's never been a way to be certain about any of this. Best we've got are vague rules of thumb and some ideas about what's right, and sometimes good smart people manage to get a little bit of power and do some good smart things.

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7840
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#64 Post by SR » Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:26 am

Hype wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:36 pm
SR wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:40 am
A meritocracy would be nice :wave:
We've been trying to figure that one out since Plato's Republic (and Zeno's Republic! And Thomas More's Utopia... and on and on...) -- Never going to happen. And it couldn't ever happen. There just isn't a way to set up a system that always only relies on merit alone. The difficulty of politics is maneuvering within on-the-ground power structures and figuring out ways to operate effectively at the wide social level for as long as possible, as stably as possible, doing or supporting or allowing as much good as possible. Managing the ways in which the stable and the good interact within societies at different levels (local, state, federal) and internationally is just insanely complicated. There's never been a way to be certain about any of this. Best we've got are vague rules of thumb and some ideas about what's right, and sometimes good smart people manage to get a little bit of power and do some good smart things.
Yes, I think it's impossible too. Not mentioned above are the will to power ideas of more than a few decent thinkers to which I subscribe. Too, I wasn't really addressing politics in general...simply the idea of free education where all these principles still apply, but I don't think it would limit opportunity as the discussion has implied. There will still be a small portion of the population that elite private schools draw from, but state schools could become a bit more diverse. My reference to a meritocracy was written in whimsy as a response to Bees previous post.

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 7028
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#65 Post by Hype » Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:54 am

Yeah. No doubt. I guess I can add something on a slightly different note: Warren's idea is excellent. Higher education should be freely accessible for all those who can demonstrate aptitude. But, there is a complicating factor: higher education, especially in North America, has been on a corporatist bent for 30+ years. The upper-level administrators are treating universities as income-driven sources of tech/economic progress. The administrative class has been bloated, while tenure protections and new hires have dropped precipitously, while at the same time enrollments have massively increased. The latter is usually seen as a very, very good thing. And that's half true. But ask any professor: how many students in a class of a hundred in first year are actually prepared, at the most basic level, to do university-level studies. The answer is almost none of them. And that's largely because of changes/cuts to public education at the lower levels. A lot of these students are passed and kept enrolled solely for the tuition money. No one ever tells them to maybe think carefully about what they should really be doing. So one concern with free post-secondary education is that even if this removes part of the profit-motive for enrolling students who shouldn't be there, it doesn't necessarily remove these sorts of enrollment targets that could be tied directly to funding. For evidence of this, just look at Canada. Nearly all our universities are publicly funded. Yet they still have a "butts in seats" mentality as far as enrollment, because departmental funding is tied not to, say, need, or quality of research(ers), etc., but to how many students are enrolled. This makes it very difficult for the Humanities to compete with Engineering, Comp Sci., and the Life Sciences. For another case study: Stanford is cutting funding to its University Press, which is a fraction of what it pays its athletics department.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#66 Post by mockbee » Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:51 am

Yup.
I have a degree from the Corporation of Oregon, '00.
They purged the "U" in 1999.
Here is $1.2 Trillion, now be on your merry way will make this much, much worse if there are not significant qualifiers to the plan.

That has to be a major concern of yours from an academic standpoint.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#67 Post by mockbee » Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:34 pm

Image

"......however, not all of your precious angels have the aptitude for higher education."

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 7028
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#68 Post by Hype » Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:02 pm

mockbee wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:34 pm
Image

"......however, not all of your precious angels have the aptitude for higher education."
That's not a real quotation of anyone, is it? If you're paraphrasing something I said above, well... it's true isn't it? And I think we shouldn't denigrate not going to university. There's nothing wrong with the trades, or with service professions (especially health services). In fact, both of those are far, far more in need right now than people barely graduating from a 4 year bachelors program with a 2.5 GPA and a degree in English or History (that they didn't really get much out of or enjoy; never mind aptitude).

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#69 Post by mockbee » Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:57 pm

Warren would never say that, but she should and add:
"...many of you were duped and in big trouble, I am truly sorry about that, and here is some money to relieve your burden."


This is what I am trying to get at. Higher education is no panacea, and in fact is an unnecessary burden to a ton of kids who shouldn't be there, and does nothing constructive for their future prospects. That is the case now, even when kids are putting themselves into a ton of financial stress. It's what they've been sold.

What parent/student would be so stupid to leave a free 4 year higher education degree on the table?
And what corporate university would be so stupid as to be more selective with easy money coming in?

Truly we have a misinformation crisis that created a huge financial crisis.

Trade, vocational and community colleges should be free. Maybe state schools are free as well, but have rigid enrollment caps and limitations on budget allocations. :noclue:

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 7028
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#70 Post by Hype » Wed May 01, 2019 3:48 pm

What parent/student would be so stupid to leave a free 4 year higher education degree on the table?
The kind who doesn't blindly believe that the piece of paper (regardless of the value of the content required for attaining it) was required to live a good, comfortable, life.

The problem, especially after WW2, is not that the possibility of attaining post-secondary institutions was opened up to classes of people who previously would never have had the option. That was unquestionably a good thing (and it also resulted in a huge boom in hiring in Universities in the 60s). But concomitant with that was a persistent superstitious inversion of the causal connection between higher education and economic prospects. The data shows that higher education correlates with higher lifetime earnings, and on that basis, parents push their kids into it. But this gets things backwards.

User avatar
chaos
Posts: 5024
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:23 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#71 Post by chaos » Fri May 03, 2019 3:56 pm

It looks like Bill De Blasio is throwing his hat into the ring next week.



Image
Who are the 2020 US Democratic presidential candidates?
The pool of candidates vying for their party's nomination in 2020 is among the largest and most diverse in US history.
2 May 2019


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/ ... 57543.html


User avatar
chaos
Posts: 5024
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:23 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#72 Post by chaos » Sat May 11, 2019 6:39 am


User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#73 Post by mockbee » Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:38 pm

Bill Maher nailed it for 2020. :wave:


User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#74 Post by mockbee » Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:25 am

God I hope Warren can pull this off for the nomination................please, please, please.......... :box:

It's going to be her or Biden........i'm going to shoot somebody if it's Biden.......... he has a strong chance. :banghead:


If economy/interventions stays status quo, Warren will lose to Trump in the general, she won't get the minority vote, but we need her to finally kill off this stale absurd version of the Democratic party.

Warren/Abrams would be interesting...........if Warren can come up with something 'He-uuuuge' when faced with the Pocahontas crap, she has failed miserably so far on that front......

If economy tanks I think it will be a nail biter between Warren and Trump......if Warren can get minority vote out.

This Biden/Clinton party is disgusting and pathetic.........and would lose just as badly or worse as Warren to Trump.

Obama would walk away handily with victory if he could run for third term.
Oprah would win 45-48 states and absolutely kill in the popular......

:wave:

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 7028
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Democratic Presidential Campaign 2020

#75 Post by Hype » Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:06 pm

You don't think Booker will pull it off in the end?

Post Reply