So, not to single you out, Hoka, but that's a great example of how humans are not great at statistical reasoning. The R0 factor for COVID-19 is high enough, and the severity of the disease among most people is so mild, that 40-70% is not exaggerated. It's already in more than 95 countries (it was 77 countries a day or two ago).mockbee wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:11 pmI wouldnt say a year is exaggerated at all....Hokahey wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:10 pmWhat is the time frame for that 40-70%? If it's this year, that seems grossly over exaggerated.
It's estimated that 40-70% of the world is going to catch this, and 80% of those will be mild or even asymptomatic -- corona-viruses cause 30% of all colds (rhinoviruses cause the other 70%). But for the other 20%, most of whom will be over 60, there will be pneumonia and bacterial infections and death for upwards of 15% of them, and for the other 85%, hospitalization, and a long recovery.
I probably already had/have it.......the Oregon case was literally where I was last week.
A 1,000,000+ people on the west coast probably already have/had it. It started here almost a month ago based on their forensic findings to date.
We are sooooo behind on the science....
Consider how numbers double. Start with one person with a disease, and assume that each person will tend to spread it to about two other people (COVID-19 seems to have a more infectious rate than that, but two is easier to understand). Now take into account that symptoms tend to be observed between 1 and 2 weeks. Let's go with 2 weeks. That means we can count the increased numbers fairly accurately every two weeks, or 26 times in a year. So, how many people would get it after 26 two-week intervals, starting from one person at a rate of 2 people catching it per previous person infected? (which, again, is way oversimplified)
Week 2: 3 people.
Week 4: 9 people.
Week 6: 27 people.
Week 8: 81 people.
Week 10: 243 people.
Week 12: 729 people.
Week 14: 2187 people.
Week 16: 6561 people.
Week 18: 19683 people.
Week 20: 59049 people.
Week 22: 177147 people.
Week 24: 531441 people.
Week 26: 1594329 people (after just half a year, starting from one person).
Week 28: 4782987 people.
Week 30: 14348961 people.
Week 32: 43046883 people.
Week 34: 129140649 people.
Week 36: 387421947 people.
Week 38: 1162265841 people.
Week 40: 3486797523 people. (This is pretty close to 40% of the world's current population, after just 40 weeks.)
Week 42: 10460392569 people. --- This is more people than are currently alive on Earth.
Keep in mind that this is a rate of transmission of only 2 people per infected person every two weeks. Because the disease is so mild in 80% of people, and because it's so widespread already, these numbers are likely to increase much faster.
Here are fairly current numbers: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
100,000+ cases, of which about 45% still haven't recovered.
The incubation period is 2-14 days (but potentially up to 27 days). This means that cases may increase faster than tripling every two weeks. This all depends on the ability of countries to mobilize enforcement of emergency health measures, quarantines, etc.
So, no, I don't think 40-70% is exaggerated. Keep in mind that the reported numbers depend entirely on how much testing is actually going on. The United States has not been testing anywhere near enough, and yet cases have been found all over the country, on both coasts.