Coronavirus

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chaos
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Re: Coronavirus

#251 Post by chaos » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:29 am

Hype wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:52 am

It has nothing to do with overwhelming the immune system.
A universal flu vaccine has eluded scientists for decades. Unlike other viruses, influenza has a rapid-fire mutation rate and thousands of different strains, which complicates the process.
Yes and the immune system can't learn all of the combinations at once.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/smar ... -year.html
Why isn’t there a universal flu vaccine yet? The immune system can’t learn every possible combination of HA and NA. Scientists are trying to develop a vaccine that teaches the immune system to recognize a different part of the virus than HA or NA, but that’s hard to do when the immune system automatically notices those proteins first.

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Re: Coronavirus

#252 Post by Hype » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:56 am

chaos wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:29 am
Hype wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:52 am

It has nothing to do with overwhelming the immune system.
A universal flu vaccine has eluded scientists for decades. Unlike other viruses, influenza has a rapid-fire mutation rate and thousands of different strains, which complicates the process.
Yes and the immune system can't learn all of the combinations at once.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/smar ... -year.html
Why isn’t there a universal flu vaccine yet? The immune system can’t learn every possible combination of HA and NA. Scientists are trying to develop a vaccine that teaches the immune system to recognize a different part of the virus than HA or NA, but that’s hard to do when the immune system automatically notices those proteins first.
Yes, but that claim isn't about overwhelming the immune system (which suggests that if we made such a vaccine it would somehow break / shut down / be ignored by our immune response). It's just a mathematical claim, probably based on this information:

There are 18 known HA subtypes and 11 known NA subtypes. That means theoretically 198 combinations from known subtypes. We've identified around 131 of these.

But there are also B, C, and D types of Influenza,which don't have subtypes, but a whole different thing. A, B, and C are known to be able to cause seasonal flu. D might be able to.

There are also clades: "Of all the influenza viruses that routinely circulate and cause illness in people, influenza A(H3N2) viruses tend to change more rapidly, both genetically and antigenically. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses have formed many separate, genetically different clades in recent years that continue to co-circulate."

So, not only would the immune system need to learn to fight off at least 131 main subtypes of Influenza A, and some number of strains of B and C, and maybe D, but would also need to be able to learn to fight off each different clade, of which there are potentially a very, very large number (technically potentially infinite, but practically much lower).

Flu vaccines are fairly coarse-grained. They just go for expected prevalent subtypes.

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Re: Coronavirus

#253 Post by chaos » Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:28 am

^ I don't understand how that is different from what I am saying about the immune system and the current approach to the annual flu vaccine.

Yes viruses change and mutate. The goal for a universal flu vaccine is to provide an immunity so people could forgo the yearly/bi-yearly shots; that involves a completely different approach because of the numerous strains and clades.

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Re: Coronavirus

#254 Post by Hype » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:59 am

chaos wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:28 am
^ I don't understand how that is different from what I am saying about the immune system and the current approach to the annual flu vaccine.

Yes viruses change and mutate. The goal for a universal flu vaccine is to provide an immunity so people could forgo the yearly/bi-yearly shots; that involves a completely different approach because of the numerous strains and clades.
I think maybe we weren't saying anything different, except that it sounded like you were saying that something about the number of subtypes of flu would itself be the cause of some failure of our immune system if we made a vaccine with say... I don't know... 100 types in it. As I understand it, we *could* do that, and our body probably would deal with it just fine, but it'd be prohibitively expensive to manufacture, and since we'd still need it every year, it's kind of pointless to approach it that way. But yeah, I guess we're basically saying the same thing.

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Re: Coronavirus

#255 Post by Artemis » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:09 am

My new normal is waking up early and getting out as soon as possible to see what what I can find in the stores. I go to a bunch of different drug stores, supermarkets and dollar stores. I'm not hoarding, just trying to find enough supplies, mainly cleaning products that I'll share with my mother. I noticed today that the supermarkets are getting a little more stocked. I was happy to find paper towels at a reasonable price, spray disinfectant, flour, rice, tuna and coffee filters. Fresh fruit&veg, fresh baked goods all seem to be in good supply. Even picked up a couple of chickens and some ground beef.

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Re: Coronavirus

#256 Post by Artemis » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:33 am

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... IB_Y4ldOu0
Breaking: Italy on Thursday hit a grim milestone, surpassing China for the largest number of coronavirus-related deaths, at 3,405.

The novel coronavirus continued to spread globally, with Italy announcing a record number of deaths Wednesday and Spain reporting a similarly alarming death-toll spike Thursday. New numbers out of Iran are also grim.

But news from China on Thursday may offer a glimmer of hope: The country reported no new locally transmitted cases the previous day for the first time since the outbreak began late last year.

Here are some significant developments:

India barred incoming commercial flights for a week, and Australia and New Zealand closed their borders to everyone except citizens and residents. The United Arab Emirates went further, stopping expatriate residents from returning to the country. Meanwhile, Italy is extending lockdown measures.
Prince Albert of Monaco has tested positive for the coronavirus. That announcement came hours after the European Union’s top Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said he tested positive. U.S. Reps. Ben McAdams (D-Utah) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) both announced positive tests, as well; they are the first confirmed cases in Congress.
The European Central Bank announced an $820 billion emergency bond-buying program as President Trump and congressional leaders planned a $1 trillion stimulus package, including special assistance for small businesses and airlines. Trump also signed into a law a bill to ensure paid leave benefits for many Americans.

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Re: Coronavirus

#257 Post by chaos » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:21 am

Hype wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:59 am
chaos wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:28 am
^ I don't understand how that is different from what I am saying about the immune system and the current approach to the annual flu vaccine.

Yes viruses change and mutate. The goal for a universal flu vaccine is to provide an immunity so people could forgo the yearly/bi-yearly shots; that involves a completely different approach because of the numerous strains and clades.
I think maybe we weren't saying anything different, except that it sounded like you were saying that something about the number of subtypes of flu would itself be the cause of some failure of our immune system if we made a vaccine with say... I don't know... 100 types in it. As I understand it, we *could* do that, and our body probably would deal with it just fine, but it'd be prohibitively expensive to manufacture, and since we'd still need it every year, it's kind of pointless to approach it that way. But yeah, I guess we're basically saying the same thing.
Okay - but this is how you define it:
Yes, but that claim isn't about overwhelming the immune system (which suggests that if we made such a vaccine it would somehow break / shut down / be ignored by our immune response).
You indicate that the immune system would either react negatively or would not react at all.

Your definition fits, but then you seem to be saying that you don't think there would be negative effects to the immune system. It would, as you say, be cost prohibitive since the immune system would not work as intended when more than 3 or 4 stains are introduced to it.

I actually agree with both parts of your definition. Here is why:
https://www.livescience.com/why-flu-sho ... u-flu.html

And just as the polio vaccine won't give a child polio, the flu vaccine will not cause the flu. That's because the flu vaccine is made with inactive strains of the flu virus, which are not capable of causing the flu.

That said, some people may feel sick after they receive the flu shot which can lead to thinking they got sick from the shot.

However, feeling under the weather after a flu shot is actually a positive. It can be a sign that your body's immune response is working. What happens is this: When you receive the flu shot, your body recognizes the inactive flu virus as a foreign invader. This is not dangerous; it causes your immune system to develop antibodies to attack the flu virus when exposed in the future. This natural immune response may cause some people to develop a low-grade fever, headache or overall muscle aches. These side effects can be mistaken for the flu but in reality are likely the body's normal response to vaccination.
I think the immune system can only take on so much. Adding all 12 or 15 strains that doctors currently work with for the annual vaccine would probably not do anything to a person's immune system, and would have less efficacy than a vaccine targeted for 3 or 4 strains since the immune system can make just so many antibodies at one time.

Hypothetically speaking, I also think inoculations containing dozen(s) of strains, given year after year for decades, could potentially harm the immune system. What would such a vaccine do to the immune system? I don't know, but neither do the scientists.

The annual flu vaccine and a (potential) universal vaccine are designed to target the "foreign invaders" in completely different ways.

I have tried to clarify my points simply, although I'm still not sure we agree. :lol:

I'm not a doctor. I just play one on the internet. :tiphat:

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Re: Coronavirus

#258 Post by Artemis » Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:40 pm

:lol:

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Re: Coronavirus

#259 Post by kv » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:31 pm

Cali's gov just said 56% of Cali will have it in 8 weeks...fun!

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Re: Coronavirus

#260 Post by Pandemonium » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:58 pm

Artemis wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:09 am
My new normal is waking up early and getting out as soon as possible to see what what I can find in the stores. I go to a bunch of different drug stores, supermarkets and dollar stores. I'm not hoarding, just trying to find enough supplies, mainly cleaning products that I'll share with my mother. I noticed today that the supermarkets are getting a little more stocked. I was happy to find paper towels at a reasonable price, spray disinfectant, flour, rice, tuna and coffee filters. Fresh fruit&veg, fresh baked goods all seem to be in good supply. Even picked up a couple of chickens and some ground beef.
I had to be one of the dummies standing in line (in pouring rain no less) for an hour this morning waiting for Costco to open to get a pack of toilet and towel paper. The last few days shopping for stuff to hold us over for a couple weeks, I became alarmed that I wasn't seeing toilet paper *anywhere.* I'm usually pretty well stocked on necessities like bottled water, canned food, etc as part of typical SoCal earthquake/natural disaster preparedness but the toilet paper thing admittedly caught me flatfooted and I finally had to go out foraging. My caveman ancestors brought home a lion carcass, I bring home Charmin.

There was probably a couple hundred people in line when doors opened and there was no "social distancing" whatsoever as people crushed into the building like it was Black Friday. Then you had to stand in a long, slow moving line inside the building to get your 1 per person allotment of paper products. I also had to make a run to the Kaiser pharmacy to pick up my wife's perscrips for the month. They had "screeners" outside limiting people entry who exhibited symptoms - which were checked by asking the usual questions (Travel outside US? Coughing? Feel sick, Etc) but they had *no* thermometers and on nurse said they weren't expecting any until early Summer(!).

In my travels the last few days, it was weird to notice that Best Buys and a few other large non-grocery retailers were still open, something I expect to change after tonight's state-wide decree. The other thing I noticed, it's mostly older, elderly people still out and about.

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Re: Coronavirus

#261 Post by Pandemonium » Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:03 pm

kv wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:31 pm
Cali's gov just said 56% of Cali will have it in 8 weeks...fun!
The thing about that number is, most of us won't be able to get tested and ever know for sure unless we're exhibited strong symptoms.

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Re: Coronavirus

#262 Post by Hype » Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:35 am

Pandemonium wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:03 pm
kv wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:31 pm
Cali's gov just said 56% of Cali will have it in 8 weeks...fun!
The thing about that number is, most of us won't be able to get tested and ever know for sure unless we're exhibited strong symptoms.
You'll know it by the ... trail of dead.


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Re: Coronavirus

#263 Post by creep » Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:40 am

mockbee wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:43 am
creep wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:24 am
We had a meeting yesterday with about 20 people announcing that there will be no more meetings and instructing us to keep our distance. We then had a meeting after lunch showing us how to disinfect stuff. A few hours later we had a meeting about the shelter in place recommendation and how we are going to handle it.

We are not doing very well with this no meeting thing. :conf:
Leave it to the City..... :tiphat:
Or are you County?

:banana:
city....actually they have been pretty good about it. like i said before we have to work so we are going to three 10 hour days a week and we are working with just two people a day. they are still paying us the same. one of my coworkers is 67 and he was sent home with pay until it i over.

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Re: Coronavirus

#264 Post by clickie » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:47 am

I've heard from multiple sources that Illinois will be shutting it all down within the next 2-3 days.

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Re: Coronavirus

#265 Post by Artemis » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:17 am

Pandemonium wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:58 pm
. The other thing I noticed, it's mostly older, elderly people still out and about.
All the supermarkets and drugstores here are designating their first hour or two from opening for seniors and people with mobility/disability issues so that they can shop without crowds and waiting in long lines to pay.

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Re: Coronavirus

#266 Post by chaos » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:38 am

Artemis wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:17 am
Pandemonium wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:58 pm
. The other thing I noticed, it's mostly older, elderly people still out and about.
All the supermarkets and drugstores here are designating their first hour or two from opening for seniors and people with mobility/disability issues so that they can shop without crowds and waiting in long lines to pay.
The same thing is happening here.

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Re: Coronavirus

#267 Post by chaos » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:42 am

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/5-year-o ... /31783135#

Hogan signs emergency COVID-19 legislation as 5-year-old tests positive

WBAL Updated: 6:37 AM EDT Mar 20, 2020
Jenny Fulginiti Digital Editor
Kate Amara Reporter
Lisa Robinson I-Team Reporter
By Tre Ward

ANNAPOLIS, Md. —
Gov. Larry Hogan announced Thursday that the state has reached 107 positive cases of the coronavirus. One of the cases includes a 5-year-old girl from Howard County -- the first confirmed case for a child in Maryland.
. . .
The girl is a student at Elkridge Elementary School. She's recovering at home and health officials said others at the school are not at risk, Howard County officials announced in the afternoon.

"Among today's new cases is a 5-year-old girl in Howard County, who tested positive for coronavirus -- the first case of a child contracting the disease in Maryland," Hogan said.

While leaders said the 5-year-old girl was not exposed to any students or staff at Elkridge Elementary School, local leaders are calling for new changes to slow down the spread of the virus.

"And it's just the concern. There's a lot of questions,” said resident Karen Kushman.
. . .

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Re: Coronavirus

#268 Post by chaos » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:47 am

RACHEL MADDOW
Seven states doing surprisingly little to curb spread of coronavirus


Rachel Maddow reports that according to the National Governors Association, seven states have not issued any state-wide mandates about the size of gatherings, restaurants and bars, or closing schools to help prevent the spread of the deadly coronavirus.
March 18, 2020

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Last edited by chaos on Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:53 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Coronavirus

#269 Post by chaos » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:48 am

Here is an alphabetical list of what is going on in each state:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/ ... 56419.html

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Re: Coronavirus

#270 Post by mockbee » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:02 am

It will be interesting to see what happens where.
How effective/not effective measures are in each state and whether that dampens contagion. Policy is one thing, people's actions are another. :noclue:

Oregon is not going forward with shelter-in-place.

It's hard to tell whether people are taking it seriously or not, as the news is just more reporting on policy.
Most stores, outside of groceries are closed though.
Including all restaurants/bars, only take-out is open.

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Re: Coronavirus

#271 Post by mockbee » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:48 am

Part of the problem without a government/state mandate, each business is supposed to make a decision to remain open or not without knowing what is broadly going on in the community.
For some of these businesses, it is a death sentence if they close for an indefinite amount of time.....

If anyone knows Powell's books (largest independent bookstore in the world).
More than one-million books, 3,500 sections - 68,000 sf of bookshelves over a city block of retail, opened in 1970.
They are closed, and will likely be closed permanently....

They were running on a shoestring budget for a while with Amazon.

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Re: Coronavirus

#272 Post by chaos » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:59 pm

Foraging update:

Not one roll of toilet paper in sight.
No frozen vegetables except for cauliflower. No frozen fruit except for cherries.
No garlic. (I haven't seen any for two weeks.)

I'm okay with supplies, but I have been stocking up on cat food and cat litter. I have two fussy senior cats with health issues.

The stores have been restocking, but I need to go out earlier in the day if I need any high demand items.

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Re: Coronavirus

#273 Post by Artemis » Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:48 pm

chaos wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:59 pm
Foraging update:
The stores have been restocking, but I need to go out earlier in the day if I need any high demand items.
:nod: Each day this week I went out earlier and earlier to find stuff. Today I've been in all day, no shopping.

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Re: Coronavirus

#274 Post by Artemis » Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:55 pm

:mad: I wish that orange turd would STFU!!
No information is better than wrong information and lies.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... e=facebook
Trump’s eruption at an NBC reporter says it all about his alternate reality on coronavirus

By
Aaron Blake
March 20, 2020 at 1:53 p.m. EDT

President Trump on Friday excoriated an NBC reporter for pressing him on whether he was being overly optimistic about the government’s ability to deliver drugs to treat the coronavirus. But the exchange epitomized just how out of tune Trump is with actual developments and his top health officials.

At the daily news briefing, Trump played up the promise of a malaria drug to possibly treat the coronavirus. He was asked about its application to other similar diseases like severe acute respiratory syndrome, for which he said he thought the drug had been “fairly effective."

But then Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading immunologist, stepped in to qualify things.

“You’ve got to be careful when you say ‘fairly effective,’” Fauci told Fox News’s John Roberts. “It was never done in a clinical trial that compared it to anything. It was given to individuals and felt that maybe it works.”

In the next exchange, NBC’s Peter Alexander noted that Trump had said the day before about some of the drugs “we’re in really good shape on, and that’s for immediate delivery — immediate — like as fast as we can get it.”

Trump watered that down somewhat Friday, acknowledging there is a process to approving drugs for the new purpose. But he added, “I am a man that comes from a very positive school when it comes to, in particular, one of these drugs.” He added: “People may be surprised by the way there would be a game-changer."

Alexander noted that Fauci has sung a very different tune on this topic, though, saying here is no “magic drug.” Alexander suggested Trump might agree, but before he could finish his question, Trump cut in.

“Well,” Trump said, “you know I think we only disagree a little bit. I disagree. Maybe and maybe not. Maybe there is; maybe there isn’t. We have to see."

Alexander countered: “Is it possible that your impulse to put a positive spin on things, may be giving Americans a false sense of hope?”

“No, I don’t think so,” Trump said.

Alexander noted it was not yet an approved drug.

“Such a lovely question,” Trump shot back. He tried to say he agreed with Fauci — despite what he had said just a moment before — but then again offered a more optimistic tone than the doctor has about the drug.

“I feel good about it. That’s all it is — just a feeling. [I’m a] smart guy,” Trump said, adding: “We have nothing to lose. You know the expression: What the hell do you have to lose?"

Alexander responded with what might seem like an innocuous question: “What do you say to Americans who are scared, though? Nearly 200 dead. Fourteen thousand are sick. Millions, as you witness, who are scared right now. What do you say to Americans who are watching you right now who are scared?”

Trump erupted.

“I say that you’re a terrible reporter; that’s what I say,” Trump said. “I think it’s a very nasty question. And I think it’s a very bad signal that you’re putting out to the American people. The American people are looking for answers, and they’re looking for hope. And you’re doing sensationalism."

He added: “Let me just say something: That’s really bad reporting. And you want to get back to reporting instead of sensationalism. Let’s see if it works. It might and it might not. I happen to feel good about it, but who knows? I’ve been right a lot."

But here’s the thing: Alexander rightly noted that Trump was saying something that medical experts like Fauci have strained to avoid — that this drug could be the kind of “game-changer” Trump actually volunteered that he disagreed with that and said it might be. There is a real difference in what they are saying, and it’s completely fair for a reporter to ask Trump to account for that.

There’s also the backstory here. Trump has, in fact, repeatedly made statements about things that lay ahead in the fight against the coronavirus, and they often haven’t panned out. To wit:

-He said of the malaria drug, “We’re going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately. That’s where the FDA has been so great. They’ve gone through the approval process. It’s been approved. … So we’re going to be able to make that drug available by prescription or states.” FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn later -clarified that the drug was only approved for malaria.
-He has said health industry leaders agreed to waive all costs of coronavirus treatments, when in fact they only agree to waive co-payments.
-He has said Google was developing a website for the coronavirus and had 1,700 people working on it, but that was apparently news to Google.
-He has oversold the ability to deliver masks and ventilators to health-care professionals, relative to other officials.
-He said two hospital ships were being dispatched to help, but we later learned they were weeks away and wouldn’t be helping with the coronavirus, but rather other illnesses.

While Trump may not be downplaying the coronavirus as much as he used to, he sure is overplaying some of the measures that can be used to combat it. Alexander was right to press him on that point, and Trump’s eruption at him for pointing out the mixed messages between Trump and Fauci really says it all.

Trump told Alexander he was putting out a “very bad signal” to the American people, but Alexander was simply noting that the signal Trump is emitting was on a much more optimistic frequency than Fauci seems to desire.

Trump has long had a tendency to oversell things as president, which perhaps owes to his history as a salesman and a showman. But this is precisely the time when health officials caution against over-selling things. And Trump losing his temper over a reporter trying to inject some realism into the situation — which Trump has likened to a war — doesn’t exactly suggest he’s making cold, calculated decisions.

But Trump seems almost immune to bad news on the coronavirus; he also cut off another reporter earlier this week who said the economy had “ground to a halt."

“Thanks for telling us,” Trump said sarcastically. “We appreciate it.”

It’s also important to note what happened earlier Friday: We found out one of Alexander’s colleagues at NBC News had died of the coronavirus. This was a completely fair time for a reporter from that organization to be asking about people being scared. Instead, Trump lashed out and derided NBC as “ConCast.”

Alexander asked the same question of Vice President Pence later. Pence’s response: "I would say do not be afraid; be vigilant.”

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Re: Coronavirus

#275 Post by mockbee » Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:52 pm

Trump is being a complete moron.

He can totally manipulate and effectively persuade a situation involving a person/politician without a whole lot of effort.

But he can't persuade a virus. It is what it is and you have to react to it. Not bully it into submission.
:crazy:

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