Coronavirus

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#351 Post by Hype » Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:01 am

Hokahey wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:41 pm
Hype wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:45 pm
Yes, so, suppose the death rate is very low. Unlike many other non-novel viruses / diseases, we don't have a treatment that actually works for this one. If you have an underlying condition, and you end up with pneumonia, and there is no ventilator for you, you're dead. That's not like anything we've ever faced before. New York is a shit-show right now.

Cuomo seems to be walking back a bit just how much of a shit show things really are.

Cuomo: Not sure if closing all businesses, keeping everyone home was 'the best public health strategy'

https://www.foxnews.com/us/cuomo-closin ... h-strategy
I decided to click on that "article" despite not particularly wanting to give FN the time of day. That is an incredibly misleading selection of partial quotations, and especially a very misleading headline. What he said was that he wasn't *sure*, because we just don't know for sure. But look at what else he says, buried well below the lede:
Addressing reports that New York hospitals were running out of personal protective equipment, Cuomo assured that hospitals had enough in stock for the immediate need, but not beyond. “We have enough PPE in stock for the immediate need, not past it, but for the immediate need.” He added that he was dealing with hospitals who have a need for PPE “today and tomorrow, that’s the kind of time frame we’re dealing with.”
That's written as if there's no problem, but only because the FN writer used "assured". The actual content of it is: given the way this spreads, if there are outbreaks in hospitals, nursing homes, etc., and too many more people need hospitalization, they will run out.

Again, look more carefully:
Cuomo said that while the number of cases continued to go up each day, the slower rate in growth was encouraging. “'We're looking for a reduction in the rate of increase as opposed to the number of absolute cases, that's what we're looking for.”
Fox calls this "encouraging", but it's literally Cuomo saying that the best we can hope for right now is to *slow* the *increase* in numbers. I.e., slow acceleration, not decelerate, not go down. Go up. But slower. Yes. That is the best hope. And the hope is that infrastructure withstands that and we don't run out of equipment that can save lives. And we don't end up with shortages of nurses and doctors because they've all contracted the damn virus.

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Re: Coronavirus

#352 Post by creep » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:13 am

I don't understand why people do not get that it is not about the death rate now or comparing it against another virus. It's about slowing the spread and not overwhelming the health care system. :noclue:

clickie
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Re: Coronavirus

#353 Post by clickie » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:21 am

Hey everyone here knows it and thats a start.

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Re: Coronavirus

#354 Post by clickie » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:29 am

My hobbies lately have become laying around watching tv,eating, and staying away from people

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#355 Post by Hype » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:45 am

creep wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:13 am
I don't understand why people do not get that it is not about the death rate now or comparing it against another virus. It's about slowing the spread and not overwhelming the health care system. :noclue:
I think it’s just really hard to imagine what this looks like, until you see it. The public health people and epidemiologists have been warning and trying to explain it for months, but it’s really, really hard to fully grasp what hospitals actually end up looking like when shit hits the fan.

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Re: Coronavirus

#356 Post by kv » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:57 am

But, they've been pounding it in our heads for a month plus....everyone sees how we are tracking...why are some in denial? The trump question remains hoka...

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chaos
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Re: Coronavirus

#357 Post by chaos » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:01 am


An emergency room doctor in Elmhurst, Queens, gives a rare look inside a hospital at the center of the coronavirus pandemic. “We don’t have the tools that we need.”

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Juana
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Re: Coronavirus

#358 Post by Juana » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:12 am

chaos wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:01 am

An emergency room doctor in Elmhurst, Queens, gives a rare look inside a hospital at the center of the coronavirus pandemic. “We don’t have the tools that we need.”
I would never ask a friend of mine that is working in the Houston area (displaced himself mind you to do so) to do something like that but he told me its bad

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chaos
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Re: Coronavirus

#359 Post by chaos » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:23 am

From Gov Cuomo's March 25th press briefing:
...

Andrew Cuomo: (01:08)
Number of infections that have been coming in, 80% still, self resolve. About 15% of the people who test positive require hospitalization. And then there are degrees of hospitalization, right? But the total universe that requires hospitalization is 15%.

Andrew Cuomo: (01:33)
We use projection models. We have Cornell Weill, which is a great medical institution that does projection models. We use McKinsey, that does projection models, Department of Health does projection models. The projection models are important, because they are projecting the possible trajectory and projecting the possible need, right? So we’re planning for a need. The projection models do that. The projection models are just that, they are models of projections. They’re not necessarily definitive, but it’s the only device that we have to plan. Right? Follow the data, follow the data, follow the data.

Andrew Cuomo: (02:13)
The actual hospitalizations have moved at a higher rate than all the projected models. So that was obviously concerning, because that higher infection rate means faster, higher capacity on the hospitals. And that’s the critical point for us, is the number of people going to hospitals.

Andrew Cuomo: (02:43)
Right now what we’re looking at is about 140,000 cases coming into the hospitals. The hospital capacity is 53,000 beds. That’s a problem. We’re looking at about 40,000 ICU cases coming into the hospitals. We have about 3,000 ICU beds. That’s a challenge.

...

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Re: Coronavirus

#360 Post by chaos » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:42 am


Hokahey
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Re: Coronavirus

#361 Post by Hokahey » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:02 am

Mescal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:32 pm
Hoka, just out of curiousity: are you a Trump supporter?
Because I don't like sensationalism? No, no I'm not.

But there are a lot of headlines cherry picking quotes and dealing with worse case projections that are causing undue panic.

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#362 Post by Hype » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:27 am

The problem is that the federal response by the United States is absolutely being catastrophically mishandled. And the states and major cities are being held hostage by a sociopathic President who wants a quid pro quo for federal help right now.

That isn't sensationalism. You can watch what actually happens day-to-day.

We've now hit over half a million confirmed cases and 25,000 (confirmed) deaths. American record-keeping (especially in California) is apparently not as good as the rest of the world right now and cases/deaths are being missed.

Based on the rough calculation I did way back at the beginning of this thread based roughly on the doubling rate, we should now expect to see 1.5 million cases in a week or two.

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Re: Coronavirus

#363 Post by clickie » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:37 am

It's a super low amount of people are dying from this

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#364 Post by Hype » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:39 am

clickie wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:37 am
It's a super low amount of people are dying from this
Again, the case death rate for the 1918 flu was 5%. It seems low, until half the world is infected. What's 5% of half of the world?

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#365 Post by Hype » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:40 am

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... nd/608719/
“No matter what, a virus [like SARS-CoV-2] was going to test the resilience of even the most well-equipped health systems,” says Nahid Bhadelia, an infectious-diseases physician at the Boston University School of Medicine. More transmissible and fatal than seasonal influenza, the new coronavirus is also stealthier, spreading from one host to another for several days before triggering obvious symptoms. To contain such a pathogen, nations must develop a test and use it to identify infected people, isolate them, and trace those they’ve had contact with. That is what South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong did to tremendous effect. It is what the United States did not.

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Re: Coronavirus

#366 Post by clickie » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:43 am

Dont compare this to the flu

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#367 Post by Hype » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:45 am

clickie wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:43 am
Dont compare this to the flu
What? It has a higher death rate and much higher transmissibility than the seasonal flu (as far as we can currently tell). And no good treatment if you get pneumonia.

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Re: Coronavirus

#368 Post by clickie » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:48 am

This is a weaker virus compared to what wiped most of us out in the early years

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Re: Coronavirus

#369 Post by clickie » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:57 am

When you really think about it how many people died during the great depression 60 thousand

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#370 Post by Hype » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:04 am

You need to stop now. It's not a joke. This is not a "weaker" virus. Polio wasn't particularly deadly for children (though it was for adults), and was deadly generally because of paralysis. But it still changed the world to not have to worry about it anymore. This new virus is dangerous because it's *new*. Like, no one's immune system has ever encountered it before. If you're immunocompromised or over 70 the death rate is as high as polio was for adults.

Please stop trolling. It's fucking stupid.

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Re: Coronavirus

#371 Post by clickie » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:06 am

Theres no one in the world taking this more seriously than me

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chaos
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Re: Coronavirus

#372 Post by chaos » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:14 am

NYC has passed the point of being able to flatten the curve. The Army Corp of Engineers is there converting two convention centers (as well as dorms on two SUNY campuses) into makeshift hospitals because they are running out of space in the regular hospitals. Think about that. They are not reacting to sensationalism. They are acting on scientific projections based limited numbers due to inadequate testing, as well as what is currently happening on the fucking ground.

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Re: Coronavirus

#373 Post by mockbee » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:23 am

chaos wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:14 am
NYC has passed the point of being able to flatten the curve. The Army Corp of Engineers is there converting two convention centers (as well as dorms on two SUNY campuses) into makeshift hospitals because they are running out of space in the regular hospitals. Think about that. They are not reacting to sensationalism. They are acting on scientific projections based limited numbers due to inadequate testing, as well as what is currently happening on the fucking ground.
How is Boston doing?


This is all really very curious and scary and...... wearisome.
There is no end in sight.... and next to "nothing" is happening in +90% of the country. :noclue:

The calm before the storm, that may never come..... or be cataclysmic.......

It's so strange.

My colleagues are starting to be laid off, these are professionals.....of course the service workers are screwed.... :wavesad:

I am really thankful for my situation....

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Re: Coronavirus

#374 Post by mockbee » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:38 am

Some important lessons here when tele-working during corona lockdown:

https://www.facebook.com/celotoxica/vid ... 908643328/

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Re: Coronavirus

#375 Post by Hokahey » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:33 am

chaos wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:14 am
NYC has passed the point of being able to flatten the curve. The Army Corp of Engineers is there converting two convention centers (as well as dorms on two SUNY campuses) into makeshift hospitals because they are running out of space in the regular hospitals. Think about that. They are not reacting to sensationalism. They are acting on scientific projections based limited numbers due to inadequate testing, as well as what is currently happening on the fucking ground.
You have to remember that many of these measures are precautionary in nature.

Look, I'm not poo-pooing the severity here. But as I've already pointed out in regards to the refrigerated trucks tweet, there ABSOLUTELY is a certain amount of sensationalism happening right now.

The facts are that thus far, it does appear more fatal than the flu. But primarily in older populations and far less than original models have indicated. Most experts agree the mortality rate will fall significantly when all is said and done.

And yes, we run the risk of overrunning our healthcare system. But that is not where we're at. Based on headlines alone you'd think we're out here digging mass graves.

The hand waving needs to stop, but so do the hysterics.

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