Coronavirus

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#626 Post by Hype » Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:30 am

I will say that I suppose it's good that the world shutting down has held the total (tested) infections to about 3-3.25 million by the end of April. Without any mitigation, it would easily have hit the 10 million I predicted (and who knows what the actual number should have been in China if they had kept testing and reporting properly this whole time), and that would have meant easily 3x more deaths than the quarter of a million or so we're currently at.

Throwing money at researchers for a vaccine seems to have produced some hope. Forget about remdesivir and hydrochloroquine. They don't work.

clickie
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Re: Coronavirus

#627 Post by clickie » Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:01 am

Well I for one, am glad your prediction fell short. No matter how hard you try to spin it.

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#628 Post by Hype » Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:18 am

Even I couldn't have predicted how terribly the United States has done. Out of the three million counted infections, fully a third of them are in the United States. That's absolutely ridiculous.

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Xizen47
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Re: Coronavirus

#629 Post by Xizen47 » Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:35 am

:blah:

Per capita Qubec and Ontario have much higher rates than most of our states

The US isn't doing that bad. You take NY & NJ out of the equation and I'd say we're doing better than most. but go ahead,, keep shitting on us :wave:

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#630 Post by Hype » Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:06 pm

Xizen47 wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:35 am
:blah:

Per capita Qubec and Ontario have much higher rates than most of our states

The US isn't doing that bad. You take NY & NJ out of the equation and I'd say we're doing better than most. but go ahead,, keep shitting on us :wave:
Where did this come from? I’m not shitting on Americans. It’s your psychotic asshat of a president that has utterly failed to deal with things even remotely adequately. The Greater Toronto and Greater Montreal areas are as populated as much of NY/NJ, so obviously their numbers are going to be high. What does this even have to do with anything? Ontario’s idiotic premier is a wannabe-Trump type... the only thing that has differentiated him at all in this is that he has mostly listened to experts.

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Mescal
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Re: Coronavirus

#631 Post by Mescal » Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:10 pm

clickie wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:01 am
Well I for one, am glad your prediction fell short. No matter how hard you try to spin it.

:lolol:

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#632 Post by Hype » Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:52 am

Researchers and analysts across the globe think the data suggests that the true number of infections is 10x higher than tested. So... 10 million in the US and maybe 30 million total.

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Larry B.
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Re: Coronavirus

#633 Post by Larry B. » Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:09 am

The Chilean government is begging for international pats on their back, because we've only had 216 deaths so far (!)

Oh, about the almost 900 deaths in excess of a 'normal' March? Naaaaah, must be pure coincidence. Just don't look at it.

It has been also confirmed just this week that the government wasn't including in their numbers those people with coronavirus but without symptoms. Because they don't reaaally count, when you think about it... :eyes:

And it's also been widely reported that the requirement to get tested has gone beyond ridiculous in some medical care centres: you can go in with a cough, having some difficulty breathing, with a fever, but if you don't have a symptom involving your feet (I can't remember what was it specifically), they wouldn't test you for COVID-19.

Another confirmation that there's a huuuuuuge number of cases and deaths not being reported by the (fascist) Chilean government. The constitutional referendum with fought for during last year's final months was postponed for October due to the virus (which was highly convenient for the government), and when 4 days ago I got my calendar reminder saying "Referendum!" I felt a bit nostalgic. I'm sure they'll try to not have the vote in October either. This was always going to happen, virus or not.

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#634 Post by Hype » Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:14 am

Yeah, we live in an age where data analysts will figure out pretty accurately what's being hidden by lack of testing.

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mockbee
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Re: Coronavirus

#635 Post by mockbee » Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:38 am

A new world order is most definitely afoot. I'm thinking more along the lines of Brave New World, and less of an Illuminati (consipiracy theories....)

I think the next 8 months are going to be most pivotal in our lifetimes for sure, and perhaps even in the last 200-300 years for this civilization we have concocted.... :noclue:


Image
Another 3.8 million file unemployment claims, overwhelming the states.


The figures announced Thursday by the Labor Department bring the number of workers joining the official jobless ranks in the last six weeks to more than 30 million, and underscore just how dire economic conditions remain.

Many state agencies still find themselves overwhelmed by the flood of claims, leaving perhaps millions with dwindling resources to pay the rent or put food on the table.

If anything, according to many economists, the job losses may be far worse than government figures indicate. A study by the Economic Policy Institute found that roughly 50 percent more people than counted as filing claims in a recent four-week period may have qualified for benefits but were stymied in applying or did not even try because they found the process too formidable.

“The problem is even bigger than the data suggest,” said Elise Gould, a senior economist with the institute, a left-leaning research group. “We’re undercounting the economic pain.”



Consumer spending plunged in March but April could be worse.



Consumer spending collapsed in March as the coronavirus pandemic put millions of Americans out of work and forced tens of millions more to stay home instead of going out and spending.

Spending fell 7.5 percent from February, by far the biggest drop in the six decades that records have been kept, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The biggest previous decline was 2.1 percent in 1987. (Adjusted for inflation, spending fell 7.3 percent, also a record.)

Figures for April could be even worse. Layoffs and business closures did not hit until late March in many places, whereas nearly the whole country has been under some form of lockdown for most of April. Many forecasters think spending could fall at an annualized rate of 40 percent or more in the second quarter, even if some businesses begin to reopen in May and June.

With consumer activity responsible for more than two-thirds of the country’s economic performance, that would probably lead to the worst drop in economic output since World War II.

Incomes, too, fell in March, though not as sharply as spending. Overall personal income declined by 2 percent. Wage and salary income fell by 3.1 percent as layoffs and cuts in hours rippled through the economy. Business owners fared even worse; so-called proprietor’s income, derived from partnerships and other mostly small businesses, fell by 8.2 percent.

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#636 Post by Hype » Fri May 01, 2020 5:13 am

If Trump wasn't in power, and if someone younger and better than Biden were the Dem nominee, this would be an opportune moment in history to implement lasting corrections to the past 40 years of deregulation and tax-avoidance to pay for this damage.

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Re: Coronavirus

#637 Post by clickie » Fri May 01, 2020 5:40 am

It's true, too bad Mark Cuban doesn't want to run.

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Larry B.
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Re: Coronavirus

#638 Post by Larry B. » Fri May 01, 2020 5:56 am

Hype wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 5:13 am
If Trump wasn't in power, and if someone younger and better than Biden were the Dem nominee, this would be an opportune moment in history to implement lasting corrections to the past 40 years of deregulation and tax-avoidance to pay for this damage.
:nod:

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mockbee
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Re: Coronavirus

#639 Post by mockbee » Fri May 01, 2020 6:19 am

Hype wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 5:13 am
If Trump wasn't in power, and if someone younger and better than Biden were the Dem nominee, this would be an opportune moment in history to implement lasting corrections to the past 40 years of deregulation and tax-avoidance to pay for this damage.


With what money?

It is all fake.

It is currently being printed faster than the presses can keep up with, and the corporate $$$ is tied up in loony stocks.

I think the jig may be up......


:noclue:

Crashing Economy, Rising Stocks: What’s Going On?
What’s bad for America is sometimes good for the market.

Paul Krugman


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opin ... e=Homepage



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Re: Coronavirus

#640 Post by Hokahey » Fri May 01, 2020 7:19 am

Hype wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:52 am
Researchers and analysts across the globe think the data suggests that the true number of infections is 10x higher than tested. So... 10 million in the US and maybe 30 million total.
Which means the mortality rate is also much, much lower.

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#641 Post by Hype » Fri May 01, 2020 8:15 am

Hokahey wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 7:19 am
Hype wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:52 am
Researchers and analysts across the globe think the data suggests that the true number of infections is 10x higher than tested. So... 10 million in the US and maybe 30 million total.
Which means the mortality rate is also much, much lower.
Yeah, maybe. It depends on whether deaths are not being reported properly either (see Larry’s point above). One thing that was noticed about Russia is that they had a spike in “pneumonia” deaths above norms, but they weren’t testing for Coronavirus. That’s part of what I meant by analysts seeing reality in the data regardless of what gets reported.

In the West, even in the US and Canada, there are differences in how reporting is done. There was a big thing about how they’d have an outbreak in a care home, but if they found people dead, they weren’t testing them or recording them as covid, even if they probably were.

Also, it’s worth noting that the untested cases likely don’t mean a lower death rate among the elderly or compromised. That rate is pretty clear, and very bad. Much worse than the flu.

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#642 Post by Hype » Fri May 01, 2020 8:16 am

mockbee wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 6:19 am
Hype wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 5:13 am
If Trump wasn't in power, and if someone younger and better than Biden were the Dem nominee, this would be an opportune moment in history to implement lasting corrections to the past 40 years of deregulation and tax-avoidance to pay for this damage.


With what money?

It is all fake.

It is currently being printed faster than the presses can keep up with, and the corporate $$$ is tied up in loony stocks.

I think the jig may be up......


:noclue:

Crashing Economy, Rising Stocks: What’s Going On?
What’s bad for America is sometimes good for the market.

Paul Krugman


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opin ... e=Homepage


You nationalize “essential” businesses and implement a top marginal income tax and capital gains tax of 90-100%.

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mockbee
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Re: Coronavirus

#643 Post by mockbee » Fri May 01, 2020 9:20 am

Hype wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 8:16 am
mockbee wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 6:19 am
Hype wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 5:13 am
If Trump wasn't in power, and if someone younger and better than Biden were the Dem nominee, this would be an opportune moment in history to implement lasting corrections to the past 40 years of deregulation and tax-avoidance to pay for this damage.


With what money?

It is all fake.

It is currently being printed faster than the presses can keep up with, and the corporate $$$ is tied up in loony stocks.

I think the jig may be up......


:noclue:

Crashing Economy, Rising Stocks: What’s Going On?
What’s bad for America is sometimes good for the market.

Paul Krugman


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opin ... e=Homepage


You nationalize “essential” businesses and implement a top marginal income tax and capital gains tax of 90-100%.

Cuba

:nod:



:wave:

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#644 Post by Hype » Fri May 01, 2020 10:08 am

No, not exactly. I didn't say overthrow the CIA-backed fascist government in an armed revolt and then implement a strict centralized economy. Let me put it a different way: take healthcare for an archetype of this sort of thing. An overly simplified, libertarian, capitalist intuition (based on misreading Adam Smith) would be that a free market healthcare system should lower costs and increase quality, since presumably that's what the "consumer" wants -- so they will patronize only those doctors and hospitals and drug companies that offer the best compromise of affordability and quality. But in practice this obviously doesn't work. It creates a discriminatory tiered system in which something ostensibly essential for all people is practically affordable only for the wealthy and those lucky enough to have private health insurance through their employers. But at the very least, insurance is meant to be a scheme that allows a collective to protect all its members from disaster. That's why it's actually more efficient to have an all-in, mandatory universal public insurance scheme for healthcare, and probably auto and home insurance, if not for everything. So, how to fix the existence of private for-profit insurance companies? Nationalize them, or declare them illegal and set up a public insurance scheme. You can do this in a less brutal way by starting with a public option, as the Affordable Care Act does. But the side effect of this is that people complain that their premiums are still expensive. It would be cheaper and better for everyone to transition over to a single-payer.

What else is like this? Well, arguably utilities: power, water, sewage, garbage collection -- these are often public, though there have been many pushes to privatize these things in many jurisdictions across North America. Why should these be public? Well, they're public goods. They're things we all rely on for basic needs, and for society to function normally. Privatizing these things is usually argued to drive costs down. But how does it do this? It relies on union-busting and extremely high turnover, as well as cutting corners. This isn't what we as a society should want for things like water, sewage, and power. It's too important and too dangerous not to regulate the hell out of it, at the very least. Running these publicly cuts the costs of regulating many private companies.

What else should be public? Arguably cellular service and internet. And at this point possibly also delivery services (i.e., absorb private companies into the USPS).

Amazon should be broken up, if not nationalized.

A top tax-bracket of 90-100% isn't Cuba, it's the United States ca. 1950-65 or so.

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mockbee
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Re: Coronavirus

#645 Post by mockbee » Fri May 01, 2020 11:36 am

That all sounds good.

As long as I can keep my properties, a good amount of liberties and can freely travel. I'm in... :thumb:

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Hype
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Re: Coronavirus

#646 Post by Hype » Fri May 01, 2020 12:18 pm

There’s an argument to be made that AirBnB and its fallout in big tourism-heavy cities shows us that more regulation of multi-property owners and income-properties is needed to allow affordable housing and avoid the creation of these weird transitory neighbourhoods where no one actually lives there. This isn’t solved by nationalizing homes, but does suggest a need for way way more regulation.

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Re: Coronavirus

#647 Post by mockbee » Fri May 01, 2020 1:29 pm

That even works for me because I don't own anything that I am not the primary on. My mom is the primary on the country property and I wouldn't mind getting rid of the other undeveloped property in the city, or develop it with clustered (small scale) affordable housing.

AirBB is not good. Drove rents up in SF and my building turned into an SRO with all sorts of people in and out who didn't give a crap about the neighbors or property. :jasper:


I think with corona there is going to be a lot less travelling/vacationing due to restrictions and just less disposable income.

Also I was perusing the "regulations" in a draft report for oregon, and restaraunts here are not going to be recognizable if these restrictions pass. Half the customers allowed in. No waiting areas, have to wait in your car to dine in. Have to have a designated employee regulating bathroom use. Everyone wears masks (did make exception when you are actually eating.... :lolol: ) No preset tables. No multi use condiment containers/menus. No salad bars/buffets. Everything wiped down between each customer.

Glad I lost interest in restaurants before Covid. That's going to be brutal.... :tiphat:

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Re: Coronavirus

#648 Post by Charles » Fri May 01, 2020 11:25 pm

Hype wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 12:18 pm
There’s an argument to be made that AirBnB and its fallout in big tourism-heavy cities shows us that more regulation of multi-property owners and income-properties is needed to allow affordable housing and avoid the creation of these weird transitory neighbourhoods where no one actually lives there. This isn’t solved by nationalizing homes, but does suggest a need for way way more regulation.
Amen

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Artemis
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Re: Coronavirus

#649 Post by Artemis » Sat May 02, 2020 4:25 am

Canada's numbers on May 1st.
The latest numbers of confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases in Canada as of 7:03 p.m. on May 1, 2020:

There are 55,061 confirmed and presumptive cases in Canada.

- Quebec: 28,648 confirmed (including 2,022 deaths, 6,700 resolved)


- Ontario: 16,608 confirmed (including 1,121 deaths, 10,825 resolved)

- Alberta: 5,573 confirmed (including 92 deaths, 2,359 resolved)

- British Columbia: 2,145 confirmed (including 112 deaths, 1,357 resolved)

- Nova Scotia: 959 confirmed (including 29 deaths, 592 resolved)

- Saskatchewan: 415 confirmed (including 6 deaths, 297 resolved)

- Manitoba: 268 confirmed (including 6 deaths, 235 resolved), 11 presumptive

- Newfoundland and Labrador: 259 confirmed (including 3 deaths, 230 resolved)

- New Brunswick: 118 confirmed (including 116 resolved)

- Prince Edward Island: 27 confirmed (including 24 resolved)

- Repatriated Canadians: 13 confirmed (including 13 resolved)

- Yukon: 11 confirmed (including 11 resolved)

- Northwest Territories: 5 confirmed (including 5 resolved)

- Nunavut: 1 confirmed


- Total: 55,061 (11 presumptive, 55,050 confirmed including 3,391 deaths, 22,764 resolved)

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mockbee
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Re: Coronavirus

#650 Post by mockbee » Sat May 02, 2020 4:45 am

Have you been to Nunavut?

What's it like up there? Worth a swing by...? :noclue: :lol:

What's the farthest north you've been in Canada?



You have a four corners, where four provinces meet. SK, Manitoba, Nunavut and NW Ter. I got that right on jeopardy. I am good at Canadian Geo... :tiphat:

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