Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

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Who is going to win the election - Nov 3 2020 Biden or Trump.....?

BIDEN - without a doubt, he has gained the confidence of the country. Trump has given up and has no chance.
3
15%
Most likely Biden - greater than 75% chance. He is a flawed candidate but I really don't see him losing at this point.
9
45%
Hard to tell still, a lot can happen.....could really go both ways still.
5
25%
Most likely Trump - greater than 75% chance. He is a flawed candidate but I really don't see him losing at this point.
1
5%
TRUMP - without a doubt, he is a master manipulator and persuader. Biden is completely incompetent and/or incapable at this point.
2
10%
 
Total votes: 20

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mockbee
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Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#1 Post by mockbee » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:33 am

What is says......

Assume that the election is fair and both sides eventually accept the results.

Where you at? :noclue:

It's fascinating what is going on............. :nod: :scared: :drink:





:noclue:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#2 Post by mockbee » Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:45 pm

Nice.... the whole gamut for votes! :wave:

And still one big (tiny...? :hehe: ) happy family........ :cool:



A model for the country! :thumb: :lol:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#3 Post by chaos » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:32 pm

https://www.newsweek.com/televangelist- ... es-1540746
Longtime televangelist Pat Robertson said President Donald Trump will "without question" be re-elected November 3, ushering in an era of assassination attempts, civil unrest, world war and ultimately the "End Times."
...

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#4 Post by mockbee » Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:39 pm

Well, Pat got one thing right, I can see end times for him in the coming 4 years.... 90! :noclue:

Very conveniently when the rapture occurs...... :lolol:


World War makes no sense whatsoever. :confused:
This has been the most peaceful 4 years in terms of US engagement/war abroad, in quite some time,...... :hs:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#5 Post by mockbee » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:57 am

Trafalgar chief pollster predicts Trump victory: Polls 'predominantly missing the hidden vote'
By Joe Concha - 10/21/20 09:16 AM EDT


Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a "hidden vote" Cahaly says is predominantly missing from polling showing Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading nationally and in most swing states.

Trafalgar Group's polling in 2016 showed Trump leading in key battleground states including Pennsylvania and Michigan when almost all other pollsters had the Republican nominee trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump ended up wining both of those states and Wisconsin, becoming the first GOP presidential nominee to do so in decades.

“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said, referring to Electoral College votes. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

“What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote. There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily," he added. "These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this, you’re not going to get honest answers.”

A number of news organizations see Biden as the clear favorite in the race given his lead in national polls and most polls of key swing states.

The website FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 88 percent chance of winning on Nov. 3. On Oct. 20, 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton an 87 percent chance of winning.

Biden currently leads Trump in the RealClearPolitics index of polls in battleground states of North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania by an average of 4 points, 49.2 percent to 45.2 percent.
reality....?


Why bother with this? Because we get nowhere with the media's complete lack of wanting to be in reality and leading a good portion of the US population down a path of cognitive dissonance and vitrol. :noclue:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#6 Post by mockbee » Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:51 am

I know this sounds weird right now, but this isn't even going to be close. :noclue:

That includes counting ALL legitimate votes - in-person, absentee, mail-in, etc.....

It will be decided once the States (Governor/Legislators) determined a winner based on ALL the votes cast and award their electoral votes.

And thank god for that.


The worst, worst thing that could happen is that the election is contested (legitimately) in court and there would possibly be two "legitimate" legal avenues towards deciding State electoral votes in contested battleground states. Potentially the end for democracy.



Oh....NYTimes has gone insane, like FOX news and CNN........... :no: :confused: :scared: :waits: :noclue:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#7 Post by mockbee » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:12 am


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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#8 Post by Mescal » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:28 am

Is anyone actually going to vote FOR Biden?

As opposed to voting AGAINST Trump?

Don't know if that will be sufficient (and I'm from Belgium, so I really don't know).

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#9 Post by mockbee » Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:32 am

The answer to your first question. Sure. There will be a couple dozen people in each state who are excited for Biden and vote for him. Maybe a hundred people at most. Then millions against Trump.

Then there will be millions against Biden.......and MILLIONS for Trump.
He is EXTREMELY popular in areas of the country the Media does not cover, nor understand, in the slightest. :noclue:



ps You "know" just as much as anybody here in the US about what's going to happen, or happening.......

I don't know if that comforts you, or scares you. :lol:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#10 Post by drwintercreeper » Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:03 am

Im voting for weird al as an avatar

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#11 Post by mockbee » Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:07 am

me too.

Somebody is getting it..... :lol:


You in Doc?

You gotta select your own though, like Panda, or else we might get you confused with kv.... :wink:

Just to sweeten the pot.... I will throw in 2 months of Weird Al Mockbee, for every (1) one ANR member who it up for the friendly wager.

Currently I am only on the hook for 2 months if I lose (kv and panda)..... :noclue:




None of the Media is taking this election seriously..... at all. :nod:



It's really, really annoying me........
If you couldn't tell..... :hehe:
it disregards the existence of a whole fuck ton of people. :neutral:


And right there, is why I think we are in this boat.
:bored:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#12 Post by drwintercreeper » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:22 pm

i will change my avatar whether trump wins or loses. if he wins, i plan to change it to trump in jail, trump mugshot, or silhouette trump getting ready to gobble down on silhouette washington monument.
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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#13 Post by drwintercreeper » Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:22 pm

if he loses, which i think he certainly will, i plan to change it to one of gwb eating crow or perry as a golden girl... could be a nice change.
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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#14 Post by mockbee » Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:31 pm

:thumb:

Alright, I'm in for 4 months if Biden wins.... :wink:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#15 Post by mockbee » Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:37 am

Here is a cool site where you can select your own Electoral College map. It's pretty intricate/interactive, and allows you to make your own image URL.

https://www.270towin.com/

Here's what I am predicting:
(OR, CO, NM and VA as really toss-ups. MN I'm pretty certain going to Trump with Kanye in the mix, but I could see as toss up as well....)

Not as big of a Trump victory as originally seemed likely (pre-COVID and market going gangbusters) but still sizable none the less....

We'll see.........:noclue:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#17 Post by kv » Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:10 pm

mockbee wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 6:37 am
Here is a cool site where you can select your own Electoral College map. It's pretty intricate/interactive, and allows you to make your own image URL.

https://www.270towin.com/

Here's what I am predicting:
(OR, CO, NM and VA as really toss-ups. MN I'm pretty certain going to Trump with Kanye in the mix, but I could see as toss up as well....)

Not as big of a Trump victory as originally seemed likely (pre-COVID and market going gangbusters) but still sizable none the less....

We'll see.........:noclue:

Image
Put me down one final time for "you're fucking crazy"

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#18 Post by mockbee » Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:49 pm

Maybe......

We'll see. :lol:

You know what's ironic, is that really all this rabid ranting is just a giant invocation for sanity... :noclue:

Now if I am way wrong, I'm the one insane.

But what if I'm right.....who's crazy then..? :wink:

:tiphat:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#19 Post by Hype » Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:35 am

Crazy people can get things right.

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#20 Post by mockbee » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:23 pm

Wouldn't you agree that it would make sense to be deranged, or crazy, if you saw a completely different reality from what was generally accepted, but you were right in your assessment.

Most of the lauded people in history fall in that category.

Not saying I belong there, but I see how that would be totally true.

:tiphat:

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#21 Post by mockbee » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:59 pm

If there is confusion about the polling leading up to the election tomorrow. This article lays it out pretty well, what is going on.

Maybe it's total garbage.....but also, maybe not.

Not every strong Trump supporter is an obnoxious idiot in a truck, or rabid racist at a Trump rally. In fact, many, the vast majority are not, and are told to be very ashamed of themselves, by pretty much all of the elites (media/leaders of industry/entertainment/academia/elected politicians - especially democrats, but lots of republicans as well/etc) in this country.
I can understand why they would not want to speak/tell the truth to pollsters.
:noclue:
The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win

Robert Cahaly’s polls have Arizona, Michigan and Florida in the president’s column. It’s hard to find another pollster who agrees with him. But they didn’t believe him in 2016 either.
Image

The pollster Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group on his set at Inirtia Studios in Atlanta. Mr. Cahaly’s polling firm most effectively predicted the outcome of the 2016 election.

By Giovanni Russonello and Sarah Lyall

Nov. 2, 2020

If President Trump pieces together an Electoral College win on Tuesday, at least one pollster — and perhaps only one — will be able to say, “I told you so.”

That person is Robert Cahaly, whose Trafalgar Group this year has released a consistent stream of battleground-state polls showing the president highly competitive against Joseph R. Biden Jr., and often out ahead, in states where most other pollsters have shown a steady Biden lead.

Trafalgar does not disclose its methods, and is considered far too shadowy by other pollsters to be taken seriously. Mostly, they dismiss it as an outlier. But for Mr. Cahaly, “I told you so” is already a calling card.

In 2016, its first time publicly releasing polls, Trafalgar was the firm whose state surveys most effectively presaged Mr. Trump’s upset win. A veteran Republican strategist, Mr. Cahaly even called the exact number of Electoral College votes that Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton would receive — 306 to 227 — although his prediction of which states would get them there was just slightly off.

So with liberal anxieties flaring over whether to trust the polls, the gregarious, goatee-and-bowtie-wearing Mr. Cahaly has been in demand on cable news lately. In addition to frequent appearances on Fox News, Mr. Cahaly was on CNN last week, explaining to Michael Smerconish why he thought the president would walk away with an easy victory — and defending himself against a battery of critiques that Mr. Smerconish called up, one by one, from Mr. Cahaly’s peers.

Amid a crush of pre-election media coverage seeking his theory of the case — it drove more than 1.5 million clicks to Trafalgar’s site on Monday, he said — the big question seems to be: Is it possible to believe a guy whose polls consistently give Mr. Trump just enough support for a narrow lead in most swing states, and who refuses to reveal much of anything about how he gets his data?

In his last few polls of this election season, Mr. Cahaly has found Mr. Trump with two-to-three-point advantages in North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan and Florida, and wider leads elsewhere. That puts him far out of line with almost all major pollsters, whose surveys in those states are generally showing Mr. Biden with the edge. As different as things are this year, it’s hard to miss the echo of 2016, when Trafalgar occupied a similarly lonely position on the eve of Nov. 8.

Above all, Mr. Cahaly’s approach centers on the belief that everyone lies, but especially conservatives. This has largely been disproved by social science, but that hasn’t softened his conviction. To hear him explain it, traditional pollsters (he calls them “dinosaurs”) are crippled by “social desirability bias”: the tendency for respondents to say what they think an interviewer wants to hear, not what they actually believe. In Mr. Trump’s America, he says, that problem has grown worse.

“I just think people are not what they say they are, ever,” Mr. Cahaly said in a recent phone interview from Atlanta, where he lives. “We cannot eliminate the social desirability bias, we can only minimize it.”

Four years ago, he addressed this by asking people both whom they would support for president and whom they thought their neighbors would support. This year, he said, he is using other means to achieve the same result.

But he’s not saying what they are. Mr. Cahaly releases almost no real explanation of his polling methodology; the methods page on Trafalgar’s website contains what reads like a vague advertisement of its services and explains that its polls actively confront social desirability bias, without giving specifics as to how. He says that he uses a mixture of text messages, emails and phone calls — some automated, and some by live callers — to reach an accurate representation of the electorate.

Conventional pollsters, who abide by long-tested and broadly effective methods to glean a representative sample, aren’t buying it. Besides, if there was ever such a thing as a “shy Trump supporter” — someone reluctant to admit that he or she plans to vote for the president — that species has been made virtually extinct during the raucous, rally-holding Trump presidency, said Daniel Cox, a polling and public opinion expert at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute.

“People do not seem embarrassed to support Mr. Trump,” Mr. Cox said. In the past four years, studies seeking to quantify a so-called “shy Trump” effect in surveys have generally found little evidence to support it.

Late last month, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight got his hands on the cross tabs of a Trafalgar poll of Michigan that was still in progress. It found that more than a quarter of Democrats and Republicans expected to vote for the other party’s nominee, so far out of line with almost all other polls that Mr. Silver called the numbers “just crazy.”

Mr. Cahaly, of course, has no use for the skepticism of experts. He doesn’t seem to care whether he’s abiding by the best practices of the American Association of Public Opinion Research, the standard-bearing trade organization, any more than Mr. Trump says he cares whether the United States’ NATO allies respect him.

Among his polling colleagues, the main sticking point is Mr. Cahaly’s lack of transparency about his methods.

Josh Pasek, a professor of communications, data and political science at the University of Michigan, said that without a sense of the methods the firm uses to reach survey respondents, it’s not possible to rely on the numbers.

“It is wildly inappropriate not to tell me, not only what modes you use to draw your sample, but how specifically you did it,” he said. His general rule: “If somebody’s not transparent you can generally assume they’re crap.”

There is something undeniably enticing about the story of a swashbuckling, norm-busting Southern pollster who rode into 2016 with a fresh approach and proved all the bigger shops wrong. Born in Georgia and raised in upstate South Carolina by a banker and a teacher, Mr. Cahaly developed a politics obsession as a child and majored in it at the University of South Carolina. He soon came under the wing of the pollster Rod Shealy, an acolyte of the Republican strategist Lee Atwater, and eventually started his own firm.

Named after a battle in the Napoleonic Wars when the British navy turned back French and Spanish ships on the high seas, Trafalgar, which he runs alone, has been doing surveys on behalf of clients since 2006.

Most of Trafalgar’s polling is done for conservative and Republican clients, although — in another snub of traditional standards — it has not reliably revealed when surveys are paid for by partisan interests.

In 2010, Mr. Cahaly was arrested and taken to court for violating a law against using automatic calling machines — known as robocalling — to conduct polls. The charges against him were eventually dropped, and he later successfully sued a state law enforcement agency, causing South Carolina’s prohibition on robocalls to be declared unconstitutional.

Mr. Cahaly said he was doing legitimate polling, aimed at truly understanding voters’ opinions — and getting what he called “dead-on” results. During the 2016 Republican primaries, he was early to spot a surge of enthusiasm from many working-class voters who had long felt alienated from politics and helped power Mr. Trump’s ascent.

“I kept getting these stories about people who showed up to vote and didn’t know how to use the voting machines, they hadn’t voted in so long,” Mr. Cahaly said. So he began to look into who those people might be, and used data available online to create a list of roughly 50 lifestyle characteristics — including, for instance, whether they owned a fishing license — to identify the sorts of low-engagement voters who were turning out in droves. He used that data to make sure he was reaching the right kinds of respondents as he polled off the voter file in advance of the general election.

In 2018, Mr. Cahaly again amassed a successful track record polling Senate and governors’ races, including surveys that correctly presaged Ron DeSantis’s and Rick Scott’s wins in Florida.

This year, he has continued to see strong Trump support among these voters, and he believes other pollsters are again underestimating their importance. Among Mr. Cahaly’s theories is that it takes five times as many calls to get a conservative voter to complete a poll than to get a liberal one. Others in the field say they find no evidence to support this in their own work.

But Mr. Cahaly insists it is presumptuous for pollsters to assume that they are drawing a representative sample of voters just because they are adhering to the scientific method. He returns to the country’s political divide, and how unwilling Americans are nowadays to communicate with each other from across the breach of suspicion. In a sense, he has positioned himself as a bard of Trumpism, giving voice to a silent majority — or at least, a majority in the Electoral College — that knows the elites consider its views deplorable, and therefore won’t express them freely to just anyone.

“Lee Atwater drilled into everyone around me that you have to get out of the head of politicos and into the head of Joe Six-Pack,” Mr. Cahaly said. “What do the average people think? And to do that I like to talk to average people. I like to follow up polling calls and chat with people for 30 minutes.”

Mr. Cahaly feels no need to reveal his techniques, despite the near-universal doubt about his work from his peers. “I’ve given away enough; I’m not giving away any more,” he said, arguing that it had been a mistake to even tell the public about his “neighbor question,” which some other firms have since adopted in their own surveys.

“I think we’ve developed something that’s very different from what other people do, and I really am not interested in telling people how we do it,” he said. “Just judge us by whether we get it right.”

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#22 Post by drwintercreeper » Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:48 am

That clown was on fox yesterday talking about voter fraud in philly without any evidence. Maybe its true; maybe its also true that vladimir putin gives amazing head. I dont know, but it sure sounds true to me. Fuck the the need for evidence i guess.

Also, he wears a bow tie. Fuck that tie. That guy needs to man up and grow a my pillow guy mustache if he wants to be taken seriously.

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#23 Post by Artemis » Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:33 am

I hope my neighbours to the south do the right thing today and vote that giant, orange piece of poo OUT!!


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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#24 Post by Bandit72 » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:34 am

I understand this
A president must be at least 35 years old, a "natural born US citizen" and a US resident for at least 14 years, according to the US Constitution - the country's founding charter.

Most candidates have a background in politics and have held an elected position, like senator, governor, vice-president, or member of Congress.

But they also occasionally come from the military, like former Army General Dwight Eisenhower, or the business world like Donald Trump, a former real estate developer and reality TV star.

Most modern candidates hold university degrees and over half the US presidents graduated in law.
So can I ask dumb question? How the fuck did the US get to a position of choice with these two? Granted one is probably better than the other, but isn't there ANYONE out there even remotely better? I would have thought it would have been one of the most sought after jobs ever.

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Re: Who is going to win the election - Nov 3, 2020 - Biden or Trump.....?

#25 Post by mockbee » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:34 am

Bandit72 wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:34 am
I understand this
A president must be at least 35 years old, a "natural born US citizen" and a US resident for at least 14 years, according to the US Constitution - the country's founding charter.

Most candidates have a background in politics and have held an elected position, like senator, governor, vice-president, or member of Congress.

But they also occasionally come from the military, like former Army General Dwight Eisenhower, or the business world like Donald Trump, a former real estate developer and reality TV star.

Most modern candidates hold university degrees and over half the US presidents graduated in law.
So can I ask dumb question? How the fuck did the US get to a position of choice with these two? Granted one is probably better than the other, but isn't there ANYONE out there even remotely better? I would have thought it would have been one of the most sought after jobs ever.

In my estimation, only a megalomaniac would ever want to be president of the united states. This would disqualify the majority of people who really care about policy and people's lives, and truly making a difference.

Seems pretty apt so far in our history.
:noclue:


I would say Carter was not a megalomaniac, but the general consensus is that he wasn't a good president. He cared a little too much and didn't have a big enough ego.

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