Hype wrote: ↑Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:36 am
mockbee wrote: ↑Tue Oct 01, 2019 1:11 pm
Trump re-elected easily in 2020, possibly with the popular vote as well.....
I'm still not sure about this. His election wasn't "easy" the first time, it was surprising and difficult -- he seems to have fallen ass-backward into a strategy that he might not have even expected to work: courting middle-American racists and
disaffected blue-collar workers to snag an electoral college victory.
It was not easy the first time for sure. But, everything has changed (in his favor I think) for the second time. He is still the same a-hole that he was before, nothing has changed on that front. But, economy is "great", no new wars, pressure on China (Dems have no plan on China that works for blue-collar), action on immigration restrictions (for sure heinous words and intentions, but deeds still seen as in ballpark of "civil"). Sure there are fine lines here and I really do think most people see his words as atrocious. But you put him up against an open-border, "socialist" and a woman to boot. I see a greater than slim possibility of a popular vote win for Trump. Washington will be seen as a total mess with the impeachment, Trump will still be seen as the protest vote, and many Americans will see him as reprehensible, but still on their side at the end of the day.
Disaffected blue-collar workers are key. If the Dem does not focus on them 24-7 and go deep into why Trump's actions have directly harmed them and will continue to, it will be lost. Warren does touch on a lot of these issues, just she will likely get too wrapped up in the media/Trump storm and not be able to control the narrative.
Hype wrote: ↑Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:36 am
It was successful once only because no one noticed how that strategy would play out. Now that the strategists all know this, there's no way Democratic party-insiders aren't plotting to stop this.
I have seen no evidence that dem-strategists are aware of the vastness of the problem. It's not enough to call Trump a racist and corrupt. That doesn't mean anything to disaffected voters, who are the key block. You are telling them that politicians are corrupt and awful?? NO CRAP!.... they think. Do they understand my problems is what they are thinking. Warren has to include an anti-globalist platform, along with her anti-corporate schtick, or else Dems will lose a huge portion of the blue collar (traditionally solid Democratic!) demographic, and minorities will not come out to save the day.
Hype wrote: ↑Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:36 am
Trump lost by 3 million votes and his polling support was far higher then than it is now. The loud idiots and quiet bigots aren't the only voters, and they certainly aren't a majority of Americans. As I've said multiple times previously: Americans may be racist, but they're far more sexist. Yet, that does seem to be changing. A woman received more votes than a man for President in the last election. This time round, if a woman is the Democratic candidate, they won't be as hated as Clinton was by default, and thus stand a far greater chance of beating a brash dummy. If Biden is the candidate, well, all the polls show he's clearly going to kick Trump's ass, and this stuff about his son is just fodder for the deplorables who were already going to vote Trump.
Agreed we are FAR more misogynist than racist, and we (like a lot of other people around the world) are pretty racist. That won't help Warren. It will be more about her "socialism" and bookish nature that will be her achilles heel than being a woman this time around I suspect.
If Biden is the candidate, that will be a disaster. By July, delegates will be seriously considering a brokered convention. He would be a complete disaster, and not in a "lucky" way like Trump. I think Trump is very shrewd. I think Biden is truly, not smart. He is "lovable" to some people, but I don't think the public is up for a "George W" type figure for the Dems. I really think people are completely done with status quo. There is only a slim piece of the pie that I think would be eager for that. People just wouldn't show up. And Trumps base would carry it for him. Who are these people who are EAGER for Biden? The "I suppose, OR ELSE!" vote has never, ever won a national election. Name a person who has won the "I suppose" vote? I think you could say H.W. Bush, but he was up against someone worse than even Biden!
Biden's son is just fodder to neutralize Ukraine for Trump. That's it, no one considering voting for Biden cares. The problem is no one is really considering voting for Biden. The not "that guy" candidate never wins. This time would be no different.